Wimbledon predictions and tennis betting tips: Murray can trouble Shapovalov

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for the men's and women's singles on day five of Wimbledon.

Where to watch

BBC1, BBC2 & BBC red button, from 11am Friday

Best bets

Andy Murray +1.5 sets v Denis Shapovalov
1pt 23-20 Coral, Ladbrokes

Sloane Stephens to beat Liudmila Samsonova
1pt 13-10 bet365, Hills

Preview

Denis Shapovalov v Andy Murray

The oddsmakers reckon it's advantage Denis Shapovalov leading up to his Wimbledon clash with Andy Murray after the Canadian tenth seed enjoyed a walkover into the third round when Pablo Andujar pulled out of their All England Club last-64 clash.

While Shapovalov had his feet up, wild-card entry Murray was busy keeping his fans on the edge of their seats in a thrilling 6-3 4-6 4-6 6-4 6-2 victory over qualifier Oscar Otte under the Centre Court roof.

Things appear to be looking good for Shapovalov but the 22-year-old needed five sets in his opener to edge past 37-year-old Philipp Kohlschreiber, so maybe there is some hope for Murray.

And the Scot, Wimbledon champion in 2013 and 2016, is a much better player than Kohlschreiber so the 34-year-old outsider does have a chance of extending his latest odyssey on the London lawns.

Victories over world number 28 Nikolaz Basilashvili in the first round and Otte have already justified Murray's inclusion in Britain's Tokyo Olympics squad.

And so it's all about the glory now, finding out what Britain's finest tennis player can achieve in his home Grand Slam tournament after a hip injury threatened to end his career prematurely.

As for Shapovalov, he's a fine talent who is starting to be in the mix for major honours. But where there is ability, there is also a fair degree of huff, puff and bluster on court.

And while higher rank entitles him to favouritism against an opponent approaching veteran status, Shapovalov still has plenty to learn about the way the legendary Big Four, of which Murray was the fourth member, controlled many of their matches, particularly those on the big stage.

Supporting outsider Murray on the total-games handicap is an option, but that can be a random way of punting, especially if the Scot was to drop his guard against Shapovalov in the middle of the match as he did against Otte.

Instead, the outsider, who can be considered for an upset triumph, may be better backed with a handicap start of 1.5 sets. Shapo could win in, say, four sets but he may do well to hush Murray before his opponent wins two sets.

Liudmila Samsonova v Sloane Stephens

Russia's Liudmila Samsonova looks a terrific prospect and we saw only recently that Sloane Stephens, who she meets today with a fourth-round place up for grabs, can be vulnerable against a top talent when she was hammered by Barbora Krejcikova in the French Open.

But Krejicikova, 25, went on to lift the Roland Garros crown, while northern Russian Samsonova is still only 22 and won her first main-tour title on grass in Berlin just last month.

She upended Veronika Kudermetova, Madison Keys, Victoria Azarenka and Belinda Bencic in the German capital and that makes Samsonova a potentially dangerous opponent for anyone she meets at Wimbledon.

But Stephens, who has made the quarter-finals at least of all four majors and won the US Open in 2017, is one of the sport's best match-players and, after dumping dual All England Club heroine Petra Kvitova in her opener, the Floridian may mean business in London this year.

The oddsmakers, while wary of Stephens' chance, have voted in favour of ice queen Samsonova and, on a tough day for finding value, this match may offer the best upset potential.

Other matches

Punters can definitely consider backing Garbine Muguruza to beat Ons Jabeur because the Spanish 2017 Wimbledon champion has been on top of her game since her first match in south-west London this year.

However, Jabeur is improving at a rate of knots this year – she recently won her first main-tour title in Edgbaston.

And with her confidence up the Tunisian rates a big danger, especially after defeating five-time All England Club champion Venus Williams 7-5 6-0.

Their only previous match, on a Tasmanian hard court last year, saw Muguruza edge victory via a third-set tiebreak, so Jabeur may well feel it's her turn to prevail this time.

And with this looking potentially close, this may not be the best time to get involved with the favourite at odds of around 8-13.

The hugely promising Sebastian Korda, who looks booked for top-ten status and more, may already be good enough to upset Dan Evans at Wimbledon, but the British number two is in fine form himself and dismissed two-time Queen's Club champion Feliciano Lopez with ease in his opener.

Evans' experience and physical maturity could count for a lot in this one. But Korda, who has all the right physical attributes himself for a 20-year-old, looks a future Wimbledon champion and could cause problems for his Birmingham-born opponent.

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