Wimbledon 2019: betting preview & tips for the men's semi-finals

Day 11
BBC1 & BBC2 from 1pm Thursday

R Federer v R Nadal

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will walk on to Wimbledon’s Centre Court to play out the 40th chapter of one of the most legendary rivalries in sport and, if the betting is to be believed, this could be one of their tightest clashes yet.

Nadal extended his winning record over Federer to 24-15 when he defeated the Swiss maestro in straight sets in the French Open semi-finals – the Majorcan went on to win his 12th Roland Garros crown and 18th Grand Slam title two days later – and bookmakers favour the younger man at the All England Club.

Nadal has looked in awesome form at Wimbledon and, while he has yet to face a seeded player, Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Sam Querrey provided the 33-year-old with tough enough tests given they have all been ranked in the top 15 at some stage in their careers.

Only Kyrgios managed to take a set off Nadal but that served to fire up the Spaniard as he won a fascinating match in four sets. However he faces a much tougher assignment against Federer.

The Swiss maestro has twice dropped the opening set in this tournament but has rarely exuded anything other than control.

He easily turned around his opener against Lloyd Harris and was more impressive in coming back to hammer Kei Nishikori in the quarter-finals. Federer never had to get out of second gear in cruising past seeded players Lucas Pouille and Matteo Berrettini in the third and fourth rounds.

This is the first grass-court meeting between the pair since their legendary 2008 final which Nadal won 9-7 in the fifth set and, while a lot of water has passed under the bridge since, Federer looks ready to avenge that loss.

His age is clearly a contributing factor to the 37-year-old’s status as an underdog but fitness has rarely been a problem for the Swiss star. In fact it’s Nadal who has a history of struggling with his brittle body.

And, while Rafa came out on top at the French Open, the Spaniard is a force of nature on clay and the same can not be said on turf, where he has won just two Wimbledon titles compared to Federer’s eight.

Excluding Roland Garros, where Federer had every chance to win the second set before Nadal turned on the afterburners to come back and win it from a break down, the Swiss has dominated their most recent meetings.

Federer had won their five matches before Paris, including an epic final at the 2017 Australian Open, having never previously beaten Nadal more than twice in a row.

His approach to shortening points against the left-hander will be seen to better effect on the Wimbledon grass and he is worth backing to march on.

Recommendation
R Federer
2pts 6-5 general

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N Djokovic v R Bautista Agut

Such is the rivalry between Federer and Nadal that defending champion Novak Djokovic will be overshadowed when he takes on Roberto Bautista Agut for a place in Sunday’s final, but this too has the makings of a great match.

Djokovic is a heavy odds-on favourite against his Spanish challenger, but RBA has won three of their five most recent meetings including two matches this year in Doha and Miami and he may have been underestimated in the betting.

Djokovic fears nobody, although there are other opponents who the 15-time Grand Slam champ would have preferred to play ahead of the rock-solid 31-year-old who will be looking to play the Serb at his own game.

This is Bautista Agut’s first appearance in a Grand Slam semi-final and undoubtedly the biggest moment of his career, so nerves are likely to come into play at some stage, but he has won nine career titles and ran Andy Murray close in the first set of the Shanghai Masters final in 2016.

Make no mistake, Djokovic is the most likely winner, but he is not immune to struggle, as he showed when losing a set against Hubert Hurkacz in the third round while David Goffin had every chance of winning the first set from a break up against the 32-year-old in the quarter-finals.

RBA has barely put a foot wrong in beating capable players in Karen Khachanov, Benoit Paire and Guido Pella in his last three matches and looks solid enough to take a set off the champion.

Recommendation
R Bautista Agut to win at least a set
1pt 5-4 Hills

Click here to back Bautista Agut to win at least a set with Paddy Power

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