Rybakina v Jabeur predictions & tennis betting tips for Wimbledon women's final

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for the Wimbledon women's singles final at the All England Club on Saturday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 2pm Saturday

Best bets

Elena Rybakina to win first set v Ons Jabeur
1pt 11-10 general

Elena Rybakina to beat Ons Jabeur
1pt 13-10bet365, Hills

Preview

It's probably not what Wimbledon would have wanted. Until 2018 Moscow-born Elena Rybakina was competing for her mother country Russia but along with a number of players she chose to switch nations and represent Kazakhstan. On Saturday that may turn out to be the best decision she ever made.

Wimbledon, of course, banned Russian and Belarusian players from the third Grand Slam tournament of the season in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A number of Russia-born players evaded the ban and Rybakina is one of them.

In the final she will meet Ons Jabeur, the popular Tunisian who has made incredible progress in recent seasons. Jabeur reached the quarter-finals at the All England Club last year and that run told her that she could one day be crowned queen of the grass courts.

But while third seed Jabeur, who a fortnight ago was just 9-1 second favourite to win her first major in London this year, was well fancied by many from the outset, 17th seed Rybakina went into the tournament very much under the radar.

She was 150-1 in the days leading up to Wimbledon but Rybakina's backers have hardly had a moment's worry regarding their charge in the last two weeks.

She has never looked as fit - her arm muscles are absolutely ripped – and it's perhaps no wonder that even 2019 champion Simona Halep failed to live with her in their semi-final, which the outsider won 6-3 6-3.

Jabeur and Halep were installed as market-leaders following the early exits of top seed Iga Swiatek and Serena Williams, and Romania's former world number one looked to have an excellent chance to lift the Venus Rosewater trophy for the second time in her career.

But Rybakina had other ideas and if she can demolish Halep, who had previously seen off Karolina Muchova, Paula Badosa and Amanda Anisimova among others, then Jabeur's position as favourite to win Saturday's final could be questionable.

Jabeur, who took the title on grass in Berlin recently, has done little wrong on the way to her first major final. But the 27-year-old world number two has needed three sets to win her two last outings, so it's possible that fatigue may be setting in after such a long successful winning run.

Jabeur has won the last two of her three previous clashes with Rybakina, all of which were on hard courts, but their series has a close look to it and it wouldn't be a surprise were the outsider to make it 2-2 with victory in south-west London.

Rybakina has beaten Bianca Andreescu and Petra Martic in straight sets on the way to the final, but her hallmark triumph was downing Halep for the loss of just six games in the semis and that victory should give the Kazakhstan representative huge confidence.

Rybakina has won the first set in five of her six singles matches at Wimbledon this year, so is worth backing at odds-against to improve that record. And while Jabeur, who has been victorious in five of the six second sets she has contested in this year's championship singles, could do some of her best work in set two of the final, it's also worth backing Rybakina to upset the match odds and take the title too.

Rybakina, who has fired down 49 aces in the tournament compared to Jabeur’s 17, is 15-8 with Betfair and Paddy Power to win the first set and the match, the two single tips advised here, and punters are definitely not dissuaded from taking that price.

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