Djokovic v Berrettini predictions & tennis betting tips for Wimbledon final

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for Novak Djokovic v Matteo Berrettini in the men's singles final at Wimbledon on Sunday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 2pm, Sunday

Best bet

Novak Djokovic to win 3-0
1pt 13-10 Betfair

Preview

Matteo Berrettini, the first Italian to contest a Wimbledon men's singles final, will be hoping to make it a great sporting double for his country when he chances his arm against Novak Djokovic in this year's grass-court championship title match.

And while it's likely that the world number one will triumph and draw level with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on 20 major singles wins, punters need to try to gauge how much damage the 25-year-old powerhouse from Rome can inflict on his illustrious opponent.

Djokovic, who last month thwarted Rafael Nadal on his beloved clay on the way to claiming a second French Open crown, has dropped only one set at Wimbledon – against promising British youngster Jack Draper in the opening round.

Since that tardy start, it has been the usual controlled stuff from the 34-year-old Serb, who has taken the sport to new heights and produced a brand of fast-court tennis that on its day even Nadal and Federer cannot match.

In his three Wimbledon final wins over Federer and his one All England Club final triumph against Nadal, Djokovic was taken to four or five sets. His only straight-sets final win in SW19 came against Kevin Anderson in 2018, when the big-serving South African managed to force a tiebreak set near the match's conclusion.

Djokovic has won both of his previous clashes with Berrettini, who was 150-1 for Wimbledon in May but whose odds bottomed out in the wake of him justifying top seeding at Queen's Club last month.

Their first encounter was a 6-2 6-1 cakewalk in the ATP Finals in London in November 2019. But their second rumble saw Berrettini, who like most Italians is adept on clay, win a set in a 6-3 6-2 6-7 7-5 loss in the French Open quarter-finals last month.

Djokovic, who takes a 17-match winning streak into his 30th Grand Slam final appearance, knows he is unlikely to be able to allow Berrettini the same degree of freedom he allowed Shapovalov in their 7-6 7-5 7-5 semi-final at the All England Club on Friday, when the Canadian tenth seed failed to convert chances to win all three sets contested.

Berrettini, victorious in his last 11 matches, has a huge forehand weapon and the seventh seed could present the five-time grass-court king with a serious challenge if his entire game was to click in his first major final.

But obviously trying to become only the second player after Andy Murray to defeat Djokovic in a Wimbledon final is likely to be a hugely difficult task.

Djokovic is odds-against to win in straight sets while Berrettini, who has dropped sets in the singles against Guido Pella, Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals and Hubert Hurkacz in the semis, is 4-6 to capture at least one set.

Both players' first-service points success rate hasn't dipped below 80 per cent all fortnight with the exception of Berrettini's dropping to the 70s against brilliant young Canadian Auger-Aliassime. Djokovic's peaked at 92 per cent in his last-16 victory over Cristian Garin, although he will do well to get anywhere near that figure in the final.

Berrettini's stats have been pretty impressive - he has fired down 101 aces compared to Djokovic's 63 - and his fastest serve is 22 km/h faster than the Serb's best.

However, the likelihood is that the outsider's figures will dip in the final and even though he managed to win a set against the world's best player on the slow clay recently, it is worth backing Djokovic to dominate the Italian in straight sets on faster terrain.

If Italy are to be successful in London on Sunday, as the odds would suggest it's probably more likely to come in the football rather than the tennis.

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