Barty v Pliskova predictions and tennis betting tips for Wimbledon women's final

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for Ashleigh Barty v Karolina Pliskova in the women's final at Wimbledon on Saturday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 2pm Saturday

Best bet

More games in second set than first set
1pt 7-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Preview

The Wimbledon women's singles final between Ashleigh Barty and Karolina Pliskova is a fascinating clash between two top talents but it also presents a tough call for punters trying to find a winning bet.

The match betting is pretty much as it should be, albeit slightly skewed in favour of a Barty triumph, which is a regular scenario.

However, anyone thinking of trying to find a way to support outsider Pliskova should be fully aware that they could easily be undone by world number one Barty, the 7-1 joint-favourite before the tournament started, playing a blinder, which is perfectly possible.

In Barty's only previous major singles final, at the 2019 French Open, she mauled Marketa Vondrousova 6-1 6-3. The Queenslander was edged out 7-6 7-5 by Sofia Kenin in last year's Australian Open semi-finals, but perhaps winning at home is a tougher task for her.

This is a huge opportunity for Barty, 25, to seal a Grand Slam title which is the stuff of legend for Australians – their last Wimbledon women's singles triumph came in 1980 when Evonne Goolagong Cawley won her second grass-court crown.

And there is so much riding on this for Barty that punters should anticipate her turning up for the title match in full-on mode.

Pliskova reaching a second major singles final five years after her first one is a terrific story too. The Czech, a 6-3 4-6 6-4 runner-up to Angelique Kerber in the 2016 US Open final, went on to be ranked world number one in 2017.

But her failure to win the titles that matter most in recent seasons has led to Pliskova becoming almost a forgotten talent and the eighth seed was 66-1 to win Wimbledon this year. However, the tall, lean 29-year-old twin sister of WTA Tour lesser light Kristyna Pliskova is playing excellent tennis on a surface that should suit her game and physical make-up.

The head-to-heads stand at 5-2 in Barty's favour but all seven matches were close and afford hope for Pliskova and her fans. Their first two encounters were on grass in Nottingham with Barty winning 2-6 6-3 7-6 in 2012 and Pliskova prevailing 7-6 7-6 in 2016.

Their next four clashes were on hard courts, with Barty winning three of those in matches that were either competitive two-setters or close three-setters. And even their latest rumble, on Stuttgart clay earlier this year, went to a deciding set.

Given their personal series, it looks unlikely that Barty will do to Pliskova what she did to Vondrousova in Paris two years ago.

A likelier scenario could see Barty, whose only dropped set in the competition came in round one against Carla Suarez Navarro, dishing up a repeat of her 6-3 7-6 semi-final victory over Kerber. Against those two rivals Barty's first-service points success rate hit 88 per cent.

But let's not forget that Pliskova, who dismantled dangerous opponents such as Donna Vekic 6-2 6-2, Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3 and Viktorija Golubic 6-2 6-2 in earlier rounds at the All England Club, dropped her first set of the singles in a 5-7 6-4 6-4 semi-final fightback to deny powerful second seed Aryna Sabalenka.

Pliskova's form looks pretty much as good as it possibly could be and the outsider could definitely offer stiff resistance to Barty providing her temperament holds up on the big day.

Pliskova is a 4-6 shot in receipt of a handicap start of 4.5 games, which can be considered. Given the duo's history of close encounters and the fact that a three-set match has been quite well punted, there may also be mileage in the 8-11 about over 20.5 total games being contested. Backing the second set to feature more games than the first set, which has happened in four of Barty's six singles outings, is another option at 7-5.

Barty and Pliskova served more aces than their opponents in all of their singles outings except for the Czech's semi against Sabalenka when the Belarusian won 18-14. Even Barty, who has reached 13 bullets in a match in recent days, is unlikely to trouble Pliskova as much as Sabalenka in that department but the favourite's groundstrokes are more likely to bother the outsider.

Given the prices, the value could lie in backing either a three-set match or the second set to feature more games than the first - both options are odds-against. But with Barty, no stranger to motoring to one-set leads, priced at between 1-2 and 2-5 to win the first set, take a chance that the second set, when Pliskova could be more settled into the match, is longer than the first.

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