Steve Palmer's Mexico Open predictions, best bets & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 1.45pm on Thursday

Best bets

Tony Finau
3pts each-way 20-1 general
Aaron Wise
2pts each-way 33-1 Hills
Cameron Champ
1.5pts each-way 55-1 bet365
Davis Riley
1pt each-way 60-1 bet365

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Jon Rahm is the only member of the golfing elite who has entered the Mexico Open and punters have quickly been drawn to the Spaniard, who is a best-price 5-1 for victory. With ten places available with one firm, plenty in the betting community will see an each-way investment in the favourite as a solid wager.

It is a tempting path to take - Rahm is the class act of a weak field and he has twice finished third in the WGC-Mexico Championship - but the forecast for breezy afternoons adds an element of risk. Will Rahm get a bad set of tee-times? Will his frustrations with the putter continue? Without question, the world number two is the likeliest winner, but better-value alternatives are preferred. Rahm has won just once in the last 20 months.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Tony Finau 20-1

When Tony Finau finally earned his second PGA Tour title in August last year, it was expected to act as a springboard to bigger and better things, but a fallow period has followed instead. His impressive victory in The Northern Trust has been backed up by steady but unspectacular golf.

Perhaps there have been off-course reasons for the quiet spell - his father-in-law died at the end of last year and his family were rocked by that passing - but recently Finau has shown signs that he is creeping back into form.

Failure to progress from his group in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play was disappointing, but Finau signed off by thrashing Xander Schauffele 4&2, then the giant Utah man carded four solid rounds for 29th place in the Texas Open, before sharing 35th spot in the Masters.

Finau seems a major player for this week's low-grade affair - Rahm is his only superior in this field - and Vidanta Vallarta puts a premium on approach-play. That is a Finau strength and he should relish the venue.

Finau was seventh on his Mayakoba Classic debut in Mexico in 2014 when he was ranked 155th in the world, then he was eighth in the 2020 edition, so he has shown a liking to the paspalum grass of Mexico on a tight, fiddly, unsuitable Mayakoba track. Vidanta Vallarta, with wider fairways and more scope to attack, sets up better for him.

Finau's record on paspalum is excellent. He won his maiden PGA Tour title on that grass in Puerto Rico, then he was second in last year's Saudi International on paspalum, before finishing eighth in the US PGA on Kiawah Island's paspalum.

Next best bet

Aaron Wise 33-1

Tenth place in the 2018 Mayakoba at El Camaleon started a streak of solid performances from Aaron Wise in Mexico. He was 19th in the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship, runner-up to Viktor Hovland in the 2020 Mayakoba, then 15th in the same event last year.

Wise can make it five years in a row impressing in Mexico by contending at Vidanta Vallarta. He won his maiden PGA Tour title in 2018 and was Rookie of the Year, following victories on the Canadian Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour. Still only 25, this sweet-swinger has rich potential.

Other selections

Cameron Champ 55-1

Davis Riley 60-1

A broken left wrist stalled the career of Cameron Champ, but the gifted 26-year-old is now healthy again and could be about to make a serious impact in Mexico. Champ, who injured himself in an autumn accident at home, took months to rediscover fitness and form. Getting strength back in the left arm took time, but it started to feel normal again just in time for the Masters.

Tenth place at Augusta, where he finished second in the greens-in-regulation statistics, was a huge performance from the three-time PGA Tour champion. A low ball-flight makes the Texas-based powerhouse an ideal candidate for success at this week's long, windswept venue, and he was tenth at El Camaleon in the 2018 Mayakoba.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Davis Riley, who lost a playoff to Sam Burns for the Valspar Championship last month. Riley was in great form again last week, partnering Will Zalatoris to fourth place in the Zurich Classic pairs event.

Riley's score counted towards his team score on 11 holes in the round-one fourballs - he shared the load well with Zalatoris - and both men can be expected to make a PGA Tour breakthrough soon. Riley is a two-time Korn Ferry Tour champion.

Players to note

Wyndham Clark
A share of tenth place in the Zurich Classic, alongside Cameron Tringale, was a decent effort from a player who could take a shine to Vidanta Vallarta.

Brandon Wu
This former amateur star appears to have settled on the PGA Tour and could soon be threatening a PGA Tour breakthrough.

Vidanta Vallarta course guide

Course Vidanta Vallarta, Vallarta, Mexico
Prize money $7.3m ($1.314m to the winner)
Length 7,456 yards
Par 71 - four par-fives; nine par-fours; five par-threes
Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (2), Abraham Ancer (20), Tony Finau (25), Kevin Na (32), Patrick Reed (33)

When to bet By 1.45pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 1.45pm on Thursday

Time difference Vallarta is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Zurich Classic 1 P Cantlay & X Schauffele (17-2), 2 S Burns & B Horschel (12-1), D Redman & S Ryder (150-1), T4 D Riley & W Zalatoris (35-1), K Bradley & B Steele (33-1), H Varner & B Watson (25-1), T Moore & M NeSmith (90-1), A Rai & D Lipsky (100-1), G Higgo & B Grace (125-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Greg Norman design, opened in 2015, has paspalum grass fairways and greens (like El Camaleon, home of the annual PGA Tour event in Mexico, the World Wide Technology Championship), and will host this event for three years. The targets off the tee are generous, while the greens are large, but they are well protected by deep bunkers and are full of demanding undulations. The course runs along the Ameca River. There are a total of 106 bunkers on the track. The seventh is a driveable par-four measuring just 297 yards

Weather forecast Sunny throughout, with temperatures reaching 28C. Calm mornings followed by breezy afternoons

Type of player suited to the challenge Long driving and accurate approaches seems to be the key to success. Those who find the right sections of well-protected, slopey greens should flourish

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Sixteen of the 19 PGA Tour events staged in Mexico have been won by an American

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