Steve Palmer's BMW International Open final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Thomas Pieters for BMW International Open
2pts each-way 14-5 BoyleSports

Jordan Smith to win 12.30pm twoball (4-7) and Thomas Pieters to win 12.40pm twoball (8-13)
2pts double bet365

Story so far

Haotong Li has reached 20 under par through three rounds of the BMW International Open and the pre-tournament 66-1 chance is no bigger than 21-20 with 18 holes to play.

Li bogeyed his final hole, having found water with his drive at the 18th, but the Chinaman is three shots clear of the field.

Former Ryder Cup star Thomas Pieters is alone in second place, with in-form Englishman Jordan Smith alone in third spot. Regular DP World Tour leaderboard dweller, Ryan Fox, is tied for fourth place and has a five-shot deficit to overcome.

Robert MacIntyre missed the cut, while Bernd Wiesberger (16 shots behind), Sergio Garcia (13 behind), Rasmus Hojgaard (12) and Victor Perez (ten) have almost certainly left themselves too much Sunday work to do.

Leaderboard
-20 Haotong Li
-17 Thomas Pieters
-16 Jordan Smith
-15 Ryan Fox, Darius van Driel
-14 Romain Langasque

Best prices
21-20 H Li, 14-5 T Pieters, 6 J Smith, 12 R Fox, 30 D van Driel, 33 R Langasque, 70 bar

Final-round preview

Haotong Li thought his drive at the 18th hole of round three was perfect, but it clipped a tree and dropped into the aqua, resulting in a bogey six. The genial Hunan man, though, took the setback in fine fashion, smiling his way through post-round interviews, thrilled with his leaderboard position.

Li has been talking a good game, but he must be worried about how his golf has been becoming ever more ragged as the tournament has worn on. His birdie at the 15th in round three came after a drive which was hooked so badly he actually had a clear lie to swing at the green from 230 yards.

Li is a chirpy, positive character, who has won twice on the DP World Tour, but his last victory came more than four years ago and he dropped to 467 in the world rankings in October last year before a recent revival.

Thomas Pieters finished 27th in the US Open last time out, despite a poor set of tee-times, and the Belgian is 14 under par for his last 36 holes. Steady Jordan Smith has carded rounds of 67, 66 and 67 with the minimum of fuss, carding a birdie at the 18th hole every day.

Racing Post Sport followers are on Smith at 22-1 ante-post, and the Bath man has done precious little wrong through 54 holes, carding nothing worse than a bogey. This flusher is well in the hunt and may have more to worry about from Pieters than Li.

There is a fragility about Li, who has been going from the sublime to the ridiculous. Despite four eagles on his scorecard through three rounds, there has never been a sense that he was going to cruise to victory from the front. A wild drive - or a loose approach - which destroys Li's scorecard would come as no surprise for a player ranked 281st in the rankings. He has been deep in the doldrums, eyesight issues contributing to a miserable 2021, and makes no appeal at just 21-20 for BMW International glory.

Pieters (14-5) and Smith (6-1) are the most attractive outright options. Pieters won a Rolex Series event at the start of the year - the Abu Dhabi Championship - and this class act is 12 under par for the back nine this week.

If Pieters gets to the turn close to the lead, the Belgian bomber will fancy his chances. Most of Li's best work has come on the front nine. Smith has also been more productive on the front nine.

Punters with a decent bet on Smith at 22-1 are advised to cover on Pieters at 11-4, while anyone yet to get involved should probably pick between the pair. Pieters seems a slightly more likely champion, but Smith has had a good attitude this week and he knows his ball-striking solidity should send him close to the title.

With each-way terms of a third the odds the first two places with some firms, the 14-5 Pieters seems worth taking. With Li fancied to falter, Pieters would appear to have an excellent chance of finishing in the first two. Hopes are high for Smith, but some each-way cover on Pieters seems worthwhile at the odds.

Smith - to beat Darius van Driel in the penultimate twoball - can be paired with Pieters against Li in the final match (12.40pm UK and Ireland time). A sunny, calm final day is forecast.

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