Formula One title race analysis: Verstappen and Hamilton fighting to the finish

As F1 seasons go, 2021 will take some beating. There have been five different winners from the first 16 races – and there may have been seven had Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc not been so unfortunate. Twelve drivers – more than half the field – have stood on the podium.

But the season will surely be remembered for the titanic championship scrap between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen.

You have to go back to 1998’s battle between Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher to find anything close to this year’s fight between two gladiators at the top of their game, battling it out on track week after week.

Currently, Verstappen holds the edge by six points with six races to go. But the lead has changed hands four times in the last six races, and, if bookmakers are correct, Hamilton will bounce back to the head of affairs with a win in Texas this weekend.

The Englishman made a strong start, winning three of the first four races, but Mercedes suffered a slump after that with the seven-time champion taking just one victory in the next ten events.

The Silver Arrows seem to have got their mojo back now, helped by a recent upgrade which has boosted their straight-line speed. But a look at the upcoming circuits suggests they won’t have things all their way on the run-in.

The picture recently has been clouded slightly by the principals taking grid penalties after exceeding their allocation of engine parts.

Barring any surprise reliability issues that shouldn't be the case now and we should be able to settle in for a straight fight for the remainder of the season.

Hamilton and Verstappen have already collided twice this season, and another clash can’t be ruled out.

Though assuming everything stays clean for both combatants, there is every reason to expect this championship battle to go down to the wire.

Circuit of the Americas, which hosts this week’s United States Grand Prix, has been a home from home for Mercedes with Hamilton having won five of the eight races held there.

But next the circus heads to Mexico City – firmly Verstappen territory.

The Dutchman won there in 2017 and 2018 and set the fastest lap in qualifying in 2019, only to be given a grid penalty.

The Red Bull seems to enjoy the effect the high altitude has on the track, and there’s no reason to expect things to be different this time around.

Sao Paulo could be a similar story. Verstappen would have won comfortably in Brazil in 2018 had he not tripped over a backmarker, and he put things right on F1’s last visit in 2019, winning from pole position.

Next come two Middle-Eastern circuits where F1 has never previously raced. Qatar, with its long, medium-speed turns looks likely to present a similar challenge to Portimao in Portugal where Hamilton won there this season.

The Jeddah street circuit looks like it could be a faster version of Baku – albeit with fewer overtaking opportunities. As with all street tracks, that race looks hard to predict.

And so to the season finale in Abu Dhabi. Mercedes have won there six of the last seven years, although Verstappen dominated the event last season.

Given the relative strengths of the Mercedes and Red Bull cars this year though, it looks advantage Hamilton this time around.

So we can expect the to-and-fro nature of this year’s title battle to continue for the rest of the season.

Verstappen is rated an 8-11 chance to write his name in the history books as Formula 1’s 34th champion, while Hamilton is 11-10 become the first to claim the title for an eighth time.

The Englishman is arguably the better value – especially considering the recent upturn in form of his team - but a bet on either at this stage of the season should provide plenty of interest down the stretch.

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