F1 French Grand Prix prediction, free betting tips: Hamilton can hit back

Free F1 tips, best bets and analysis for the Formula 1 French Grand Prix at Paul Ricard on Sunday

Where to watch

Sky Sports F1, 2pm, Sunday

Best bets

Lewis Hamilton to win the race
2pts 6-4 general

Esteban Ocon top-six finish
1pt 4-1 general

Sergio Perez fastest lap
1pt 13-2 general

Preview

Championship leader Max Verstappen will start from pole position for the first time since the season-opener in Bahrain. But on that occasion Lewis Hamilton emerged the winner, and it could be a similar story in Sunday's French Grand Prix.

Pole position has been a poisoned chalice in F1 this season. Only Hamilton in Spain took victory after also going fastest in qualifying, and even that win was gained more through strategy than dominant pace.

And as impressive as Verstappen's pole lap of Paul Ricard was, it was set on soft tyres that are unlikely to be used in the race, and that could be telling.

After two miserable races for Mercedes on street circuits, the hybrid era's dominant team look much more competitive around Paul Ricard's fast, flowing corners.

Hamilton's teammate Valtteri Bottas set the pace in the first two segments of qualifying, when medium tyres were preferred, having also impressed during practice.

But, not for the first time, when the chips were down, Hamilton came to the fore and the seven-time world champion will start second.

Overtaking is tough at this circuit, but if Hamilton has an advantage on medium and hard tyres, expect his team to find a way to get him to the front.

Alpine have continually improved their car since the start of the season, and looked to have made another step forward in practice for their home race.

Esteban Ocon was disappointed to miss out on a place in the top-ten qualifying shootout, but his team were happy to start 11th as it means more strategy options are available to them.

Fernando Alonso finished sixth for the team in Baku, and while a mechanical failure there cost Ocon the chance of a fifth straight points finish, the Frenchman is worth a small interest to reach the top six at home.

Baku winner Sergio Perez was involved in the fight for pole, but ended up fourth and his prospects for finishing higher in the race don't look great.

There is a performance gap back to the midfield, though, and the Mexican could be perfectly placed for a late charge for fastest lap.

That's likely to happen only if one of the Mercedes is on course to grab the extra point available for the honour, but at the odds it's worth a punt.

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