WGC-Mexico Championship golf tips and betting preview

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Thursday

Justin Thomas hit the buffers in spectacular fashion in the final round of the Genesis Open on Sunday, but bookmakers are happy to chalk up the world number four as favourite for the WGC-Mexico Championship.

Thomas scooted clear at the top of the Riviera leaderboard, but a closing 75 gifted JB Holmes victory. Form figures of 5-2 in the two previous Mexico Championships mean Thomas is being handed the utmost respect by the laying community.

World number one Justin Rose is missing, eager to conserve energy for the Masters by taking a month off, but the rest of the elite are in Mexico City. Dustin Johnson, the 2017 Mexico champion, is second in the betting, with Rory McIlroy, fourth in the Genesis last week, just behind.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rickie Fowler 20-1

Not enough credit has gone to Rickie Fowler in the wake of his Phoenix Open victory earlier this month and that ultimately gutsy success at TPC Scottsdale can provide the springboard for a maiden WGC title this week.

Fowler has been suffering criticism for the way he started the final round in Phoenix, dropping to five over par through 12 holes, carding a triple-bogey at the 11th. Holing from 17 feet for that triple, though, was a hugely courageous act after what had preceded it, and he covered the final six holes in a bogey-free two under par to overtake Branden Grace and claim overdue Phoenix glory.

Fowler was unlucky that his third shot at the 11th missed the bunker behind the green and rolled into the water, and he was ridiculously unlucky that his first penalty drop suddenly sprouted wings from a stationary position and flew into the aqua. He had every right to crumble from that point, with a rampant Grace turning the screw.

Fowler had blown two golden winning chances in Phoenix previously, crestfallen and tearful when losing a playoff in 2016, having been desperate to triumph in front of his grandfather for the first time. Carrying that emotional baggage this year and up against Justin Thomas, a good friend but a prolific champion with a much more impressive trophy cabinet, Fowler rallied superbly down the stretch to win by two. He presented the winning ball to his grandfather immediately afterwards.

Fowler delivered a typically measured post-round interview which highlighted why he is the darling of the galleries, and laying the Phoenix ghost to rest could set the 30-year-old up for a wonderful 2019 campaign. With weight off his shoulders, arriving at a country he loves, tackling a course which suits, relaxed Rickie can make merry.

Fowler teed up mentally jaded for the inaugural Mexico Championship two years ago, having won the Honda Classic the previous week, and three solid rounds were undone by a Saturday 73. That share of 16th place was followed by 37th last year when he closed with a lacklustre 75 after his winning chance had gone.

Expect a much better effort this time given he is in form and as fresh as a daisy, making only his third start of the year and his first since Phoenix on February 3. It is a significant advantage given most of the market leaders were involved in a long Sunday slog at the weather-delayed Genesis Open.

Fowler has form figures of 2-16 from the other US Tour event staged in Mexico – the Mayakoba Classic – and this magnificent putter can feast on birdies in perfect weather at Chapultepec over the next four days.

Next best bet

Brooks Koepka 22-1

Ludicrously, the forgotten man of the Mexico Championship is the highest-ranked player in the field – after a quiet start to the year Brooks Koepka has been shunted down the betting as if he has gone at the game. This could easily be the week when the three-time Major champion reminds the world of his enormous talents.

Like Fowler, Koepka is nicely rested, having not competed since the Saudi International, which concluded the same day as the Phoenix Open, and the world number two has the tools to destroy Chapultepec. He arrived there in poor form in 2017, having missed the cut in three of his previous four events, and opened with a 76 en route to 48th place. And last year injury ruled him out.

This time, there appears to be no obvious reason why Koepka will fail to contend. He has won three of the last six Majors he has entered and it is staggering that he can be backed at more than double the price of Thomas this week. The US Open and US PGA champion possesses the power and putting touch to follow Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson on to the Chapultepec honours board.

Koepka has won tournaments in Scotland, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Japan and Korea, in addition to all his Stateside heroics, and this supreme global performer can add Mexico to the countries he has conquered.

Other selection

Emiliano Grillo 90-1

Putting improvements have made Emiliano Grillo a much more complete player over the last year or so – he finished tenth on the US Tour strokes-gained putting stats last season – and it may not be long before the Argentinian realises his potential. At 26, with one victory on the Web.com Tour and one on the US Tour, it is time for this sweet swinger to do himself justice.

Grillo has affection for Mexico, with Mayakoba Classic form figures of 10-9-15, and he finished strongly in his only previous appearance in the Mexico Championship. A share of 52nd in 2017 was unspectacular, but a pair of weekend 69s meant only 13 players in the field outscored the youngster over the final 36 holes.

Grillo was a playoff loser in the 2015 Puerto Rico Open and he can thrive amongst his Spanish-speaking cousins again this week. He has been in solid nick for 18 months and has not missed a cut in a non-Major event since the 2017 Wyndham Championship.

Players to note

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard loves this event and had Dustin Johnson worried in 2017 until bogeys at the 16th and 17th in round four. This is Rahm's sixth tournament of the year, though, and he was among those competing in the marathon Genesis Sunday, so he lacks the freshness of others.

Rory McIlroy
The four-times Major champion looked good for much of the Genesis Open, putting nicely, but a five-five finish was a hammerblow when a winning chance presented itself. He tied seventh in his only previous Chapultepec start. The former world number one seems a dangerman, but others are better value at the prices.

Dustin Johnson
The 2017 champ got back to winning ways in the Saudi International at the start of this month and must be respected. But this is his fourth week on the spin and he has lacked sparkle since his Middle East raid.

Bryson DeChambeau
The Dubai Desert Classic champion has followed up with sixth place in Saudi Arabia and 15th in the Genesis. He is an obvious threat, but making his Chapultepec debut.

Tony Finau
The regular US Tour bridesmaid, consistently impressive without lifting trophies, could claim another place in Mexico.

Tiger Woods
The living legend did not enjoy the damp conditions at Riviera or the long Sunday, which put pressure on his fragile back. He should make a decent Mexico debut.

Staking plan
R Fowler
3pts each-way 20-1 Betfair
B Koepka
2.5pts each-way 22-1 Sky Bet
E Grillo
1pt each-way 90-1 bet365, Red Zone

The lowdown

Course Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City, Mexico

Prize money $10.25m ($1.7m to the winner)

Length 7,345 yards Par 71 Field 71

Course records - 268 Phil Mickelson (2018), Justin Thomas (2018) 18 holes 62 Justin Thomas (2018)

Course winners taking part Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson

When to bet By 5pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports from 5pm Thursday

Time difference Mexico is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Genesis Open 1 JB Holmes 150-1, 2 J Thomas 14-1, 3 SW Kim 125-1, T4 M Leishman 45-1, R McIlroy 16-1, 6 C Howell 66-1, T7 M Thompson 150-1, A Scott 40-1

Course overview From 2007 to 2016, Doral in Miami, which became known as Trump National Doral once purchased by Donald Trump in 2012, was the venue for this event. Club de Golf Chapultepec took over for the first time in 2017.

The Smith brothers, Willie and Alex, designed the course and it was constructed in 1928. Percy Clifford redesigned the track in 1972 and it was further upgraded for the WGC. The Mexican Open has been staged on this track 18 times.

The layout opens with a driveable, 316-yard, downhill par-four, then the 387-yard, par-four second hole is another good birdie chance. It gets tougher from there, though, with two par-fours of 506 and 525 yards, two par-threes of 235 yards apiece, and two par-fives of 625 and 622 yards.

It is uphill all the way from the 15th tee to the 18th green. This is a long, challenging, tree-lined course, with water hazards guarding two of the par-threes (seventh and 17th), although the venue being at altitude (8,000 feet) means the ball flies further. The greens are fast and undulating.

Story of last year Phil Mickelson ended the longest victory drought of his career, the fans' favourite beating Justin Thomas with a par at the first extra hole of a playoff

Weather forecast Hot, sunny, with gentle breezes for all four days

Type of player suited to the challenge The only two previous editions of this event have resulted in Sunday duels between Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm, and Phil Mickelson and Justin Thomas, so powerful, attacking players have succeeded.

Johnson and Mickelson were 57th and 59th respectively for driving accuracy in the year of their victory.

The top three putters last year finished first, second and third in the event, and dancefloor dexterity should again be crucial in perfect weather.

Key attribute Touch/putting

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