Wales Open: preview, predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for Wales Open at Celtic Manor on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1.30pm Thursday

Best bets

Gavin Green
2pts each-way 22-1 Betfred, Hills, Sky Bet
Sami Valimaki
1.5pts each-way 66-1 Betfred, Sky Bet
Adrian Otaegui
1.5pts each-way 50-1 Betfred, Sky Bet
Wilco Nienaber
1pt each-way 50-1 Hills, Sky Bet
Jacques Kruyswijk
1pt each-way 150-1Betfair, Paddy Power

Analysis

After not hosting a European Tour event for six years, Celtic Manor's Twenty Ten course is the venue for the second consecutive week as the Wales Open rejoins the calendar.

The huge crowds that followed the Ryder Cup in 2010 will be missing again and red-hot Sam Horsfield goes in search of his third success in four weeks after his two-shot win on Sunday. But as the tour gathers pace, there are plenty of pretenders who look capable of building on encouraging performances.

It is another opportunity for the less-celebrated players to make their mark.

Wilkerson's top tip

Gavin Green 22-1

It has been difficult for golfers to get into their stride over the last few weeks as they adapt to post-lockdown play.

However, one player who looks like he has found the transition straightforward is Malaysia's Gavin Green and he can be expected to make a bold bid this week.

Green missed the cut at the English Championship at Hanbury Manor a fortnight ago but two rounds of 69 should not be considered a disaster and he did well to build on that in last week's Celtic Classic.

He fired a 63 in the final round, in which he registered eight birdies, and that was enough for him to grab a share of 11th place.

As a resort course, the Twenty Ten can be picked apart by tour pros, even if the big names are missing this week, and aggressive play can often be rewarded on a course that was primarily designed for match play.

That is what Green demonstrated in his final round and he was the model of consistency in the early weeks of the year, which is another cause for confidence.

The highlight of his early 2020 efforts was a third spot at the Saudi International where he failed to build on a blistering start.

He subsequently claimed top-20 finishes at Oman and Qatar and a breakthrough looked to be on the cards before the coronavirus break.

There is plenty to like about his statistics as well - he is ranked 13th in driving accuracy, 15th in distance and 25th in greens in regulation.

A first European Tour victory cannot be far away and it could come this week against another weak field.

Next best bet

Sami Valimaki 66-1

One player who has already been in the winners' circle is Finland's Sami Valimaki and the Oman Open champion could make another big impression.

He missed the cut at the Betfred British Masters but the couple of weeks off look to have done him good.

The 22-year-old got off to a slow start in the Celtic Classic but closing rounds of 65 and 66 were enough to hoist him up to a tie for sixth.

He posted 12 birdies and an eagle in that run and his confidence should have been lifted considerably following three missed cuts.

Other selections

Adrian Otaegui 50-1

Wilco Nienaber 50-1

Jacques Kruyswijk 150-1

Spaniard Adrian Otaegui looks to have got into the swing of things in the last couple of weeks.

Even though he finished seven shots behind winner Andy Sullivan, he looks to have been galvanised by the second spot he earned at Hanbury Manor.

Rounds of 65-66-67-66 at the Hertfordshire venue were very tidy and all four of his efforts last week were in the 60s as he finished in a tie for 14th.

There could be scope for further improvement as he looks for his first European Tour victory since the Belgian Knockout in May 2018.

It may also be worth investing in a couple of South African pretenders this week.

Big-hitting Wilco Nienaber is starting to make waves and he is ranked the longest hitter on the tour with an average drive of almost 340 yards. He finished fourth at the English Championship and there were more flashes of ability last week.

Nienaber had a couple of double bogeys in his third round but a closing 66 was impressive and it would not be a surprise if he improved on his finish of 22nd.

His fellow countryman Jacques Kruyswijk looks a lively outsider after a weekend of 67 and 65 helped him to a tie of 14th last week.

He finished in the top 20 in four of his final five tournaments on the Sunshine Tour before lockdown so there could be scope for some more improvement and he is worth an each-way poke at a three-figure price.

Players to note

Sam Horsfield
With two wins in the last few weeks, including on this course, a bold bid would appear likely again.

Haotong Li
Li had an impressive US PGA which ended in a tie for 17th but he may be best watched on his European Tour reappearance.

Thomas Pieters
Pieters finished with four straight birdies last week in his first action since lockdown and the Belgian could come on for the run.

Celtic Manor course guide

Course Twenty Ten Course, Celtic Manor Resort, Newport, Wales
Prize money €1m (€156,825 to winner)
Length 7,354 yards
Par 71
Field 132
Course records - 72 holes 262 Scott Strange (2008) 18 holes 62 Rhys Davies (2010)

Course winners taking part Sam Horsfield

When to bet By 7am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf 1.30pm

Last week - Celtic Classic 1 S Horsfield 25-1 2 T Detry 18-1 T3 T Pieters 22-1, A Johnston 55-1, C Syme 80-1 T6 S Valimaki 200-1, J Catlin 175-1, A Meronk 160-1, D Horsey 125-1.

Course type Parkland

Course overview European Tour golf stays at Celtic Manor for the second consecutive week after Sam Horsfield won the Celtic Classic by two shots on Sunday.

The course was opened in 2008, when it hosted its first Wales Open and was specifically designed for the 2010 Ryder Cup, a competition greatly affected by rain.

The Wales Open is back on the European Tour calendar after a six-year absence.

It is a long course with four par-five holes, the first of which is the second. The 18th also measures 610 yards and could require a three-shot approach to navigate the pond in front of an elevated green.

A downturn in the weather could also affect. Much of the course is in a valley and can get wet, while wind can also prove to be an issue. Three of the five par-three holes are more than 200 yards long but big hitters will be looking to open their shoulders and attack the wide fairways.

Weather forecast Rain is anticipated for the first three days of competition and also for 24 hours before the tournament starts. Temperatures should be around 19C.

Type of player suited to the challenge The course would be tougher than last week if the rain comes and distance off the tee could be more of an advantage in wet conditions. It is a course designed for matchplay so aggressive play could be rewarded.

Key attribute Power

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits.

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport