Steve Palmer's Sentry Tournament of Champions final-round preview and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 6.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Patrick Cantlay without Jon Rahm & Cameron Smith
3pts 11-4 Coral, Ladbrokes

Sungjae Im without Jon Rahm & Cameron Smith
2pts 4-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

The lowest day of scoring in the history of the Sentry Tournament of Champions saw Justin Thomas set a new course record of 61, before Jon Rahm matched that score later in the afternoon to go odds-on for the event.

Thomas, having opened with a 74 on Thursday, has hauled himself up to a share of eighth place, but Rahm's 61 is much the more significant. The Spaniard was out in the final twoball in round three and his Saturday sizzler has left him 26 under par for the tournament. His outright odds have contracted from an ante-post 9-1 to a general 4-7.

Rahm's remarkable 54-hole score is enough only, though, for a share of the lead. Halfway pacesetter Cameron Smith kept his foot on the gas, too, carding a second consecutive 64. Rahm and Smith will go eyeball to eyeball for the entire weekend, teeing off at 8.55pm UK and Ireland time in the final group. The Australian is 13-8 to win the title.

There is a five-shot gap to Daniel Berger in third place, while FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay is among a trio tied for fourth spot.

Leaderboard
-26 Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm
-21 Daniel Berger
-20 Matt Jones, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay
-18 Marc Leishman

Best prices
4-7 J Rahm, 13-8 C Smith, 50 D Berger, 80 P Cantlay, 125 S Im, 250 M Jones, 750 bar

Final-round preview

Pars were like bogeys in round three of the Sentry at the Plantation Course, with the wide-open track being destroyed in perfect weather by the world's elite, and even calmer conditions are forecast for Sunday.

Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith - 21 under par in total for round three on this generous par 73 - have put a gap between themselves and the rest of the field. The outright market is 50-1 bar the front two and Sunday will be billed as a duel between the Spaniard and the Aussie.

The prices on the leading duo - 4-7 and 13-8 - are difficult to get excited about. It could be argued that 1-2 Rahm and 15-8 Smith might be more accurate pricing given their contrasting trophy cabinets, but the odds do not seem far off right.

Rahm has won five individual titles on the PGA Tour, including the US Open, while Smith has only the Sony Open to his name. The Sony is staged in Hawaii, though, and Smith's short-game skills are such a weapon in a low-scoring Sentry. It is not difficult to imagine Smith dominating Rahm on the greens in round four, which will obviously give the outsider in the final pairing a great chance.

Commentators will be keen to describe this as a "matchplay situation" early doors, but if Rahm and Smith fail to sparkle in the same fashion on Sunday, the pursuers still have some hope. There are clearly 61s available - the course is playing ludicrously straightforward - and that is a 12-under-par round. If Daniel Berger signed off with a 61, it would take him to 33 under par, which would have been enough to win any of the previous 23 Tournament of Champions at Kapalua.

Would it be enough to win this one? Possibly. Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im - 80-1 and 125-1 - are the most eyecatching prices.

Cantlay smashed a wedge through the green at the 16th in round three, a gutbusting bogey resulting, then he carded his third consecutive five at the 18th. From six shots back, though, the FedEx Cup champion will not have surrendered. His long-time coach Jamie Mulligan is thrilled with the way Cantlay has been hitting his ball in their practice sessions at Kapalua over the last fortnight - Mulligan has reported he has never seen his pupil in better shape - and a succession of birdie chances can be expected on Sunday.

Im closed his third round in glorious fashion - a birdie at 17 followed by an eagle at 18 - and the calm Korean is well capable of posting an early clubhouse lead. He won the Shriners Open in October with a breathtaking Sunday 62 - and could conjure something similar in Hawaii.

The 80-1 Cantlay and 125-1 Im are worth considering, but perhaps the best tactic is to attack the 'without Rahm and Smith' market with Cantlay and Im. They can overtake Berger and lead the pursuit of the runaway pairing.

Cantlay and Im - two cool, calm, collected, quiet characters - are playing alongside each other in the 8.35pm (UK) twoball. It could turn into something special.

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