Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1pm Sunday

Best bets

Tommy Fleetwood to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational
1pt each-way 11-1 Sporting Index

Henrik Norlander to win twoball
1pt 5-4 Betfair

Story so far

A remarkable third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational ended up with Lee Westwood atop the leaderboard at Bay Hill - the ante-post 125-1 chance taking a one-shot lead into Sunday.

Westwood, the Race to Dubai champion, eagled the 16th hole on his way to a Saturday 65 which left him at 11 under par. Keegan Bradley carded the round of the day - a 64 to move into a share of fourth place - but Jordan Spieth was the star of the show.

Spieth enjoyed a hole-in-one at the second, drained a series of long putts, and holed a bunker shot at the seventh, before faltering slightly coming home and joining Bradley in the tie for fourth.

Bryson DeChambeau has become tournament favourite. The powerhouse shares second place with halfway pacesetter Corey Conners, only one shot behind Westwood, and the pre-tournament 12-1 DeChambeau quotes have been replaced by a general 2-1 with 18 holes to play.

Leaderboard
-11 Lee Westwood
-10 Bryson DeChambeau, Corey Conners
-9 Keegan Bradley, Jordan Spieth
-8 Tommy Fleetwood
-7 Doug Ghim, Jazz Janewattananond, Richy Werenski, Rory McIlroy
-6 Tyrrell Hatton, Charley Hoffman, Jason Day, Jason Kokrak, Chris Kirk, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Lanto Griffin

Best prices
11-5 B DeChambeau, 5 L Westwood, 6 C Conners, 8 J Spieth, 11 R McIlroy, T Fleetwood, 12 K Bradley, 28 T Hatton, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Thank goodness the PGA Tour got a few fans back in time to see Jordan Spieth's third round in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It was a frankly ludicrous exhibition of golf for the first 12 holes - almost as if God himself was pulling the strings as balls found the cup from all directions - before he covered the closing six holes in two over par.

Spieth is box office stuff - and can be proud of his Bay Hill debut - but he has been unable to turn leaderboard-dwelling into trophies over the last month and is probably best left alone by punters for the API denouement. He seems unlikely to be solid enough from tee to green to convert a two-shot deficit into victory, especially with strong breezes set to turn Bay Hill into a monster.

The forecast for gusts of 26 mph when the leaders go out mean Lee Westwood may already be on the winning score. The Sunday of last year's tournament turned into a war of attrition and something similar could be on the cards this time.

Lee Westwood is a prolific European Tour champion, but his second and last PGA Tour triumph came in the 2010 St Jude Classic, so it would be a serious feather in the cap of the 47-year-old if he can complete a Stateside hat-trick at this stage of his career. A Sunday date with Bryson DeChambeau in the final twoball does not seem ideal for the Worksop Wonder to settle down and perform to his best.

DeChambeau was fraudulently celebrating at the sixth hole in round three as if he had successfully driven the green at the par-five, as he suggested he could in the lead-up to the event, but he merely cut off a large chunk of the dogleg with a 370-yard drive, leaving 70 yards to the pin. More impressive was the way he putted early in his round and he has set up a golden chance for his eighth PGA Tour victory.

DeChambeau has a lot of wind to put into his calculations on Sunday, though, and he is yet to prove himself an effective operator in strong breezes. All his regulation PGA Tour wins have come in relatively easy, low-scoring events, while it was fairly calm for the vast majority of his US Open success at Winged Foot. There is not enough juice in the price of the general 2-1 favourite going into the final round at Bay Hill.

Corey Conners and Keegan Bradley are good enough ball-strikers to hang around on the leaderboard throughout, but both will be difficult to trust on the greens down the stretch.

Defending champion Tyrrell Hatton, amazingly, is still in contention despite a first-round 77. The tenacious Englishman has followed up with rounds of 67 and 66 to share 11th place, five shots behind. Hatton can draw upon his experience of 12 months ago - when he handled the tough Bay Hill Sunday set-up better than anyone to claim a PGA Tour breakthrough - and he should edge his way closer to the leaderboard summit in round four.

Hatton and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, pre-tournament Racing Post Sport selections, still have a chance of success if the leaders tread water, but it may be a tad too optimistic to leave the outright betting alone with 18 holes to play. All things considered, Tommy Fleetwood may represent the best value option at 11-1 from only three shots off the pace.

Fleetwood has been unimpressive this year, but a superb finish to round three, featuring an eagle at the 16th and a scrambled par at the difficult 18th has put him in great position to threaten the silverware. The forecast for tough Sunday conditions will be music to his ears and and Fleetwood's ball-striking quality can keep him in the thick of things down the stretch.

Like with Conners and Bradley, Fleetwood's putting is the main concern, but he is on offer at a healthier price than Conners and has won four European Tour titles from the start of 2017 onwards.

Bradley has won once in the last nine years. Fleetwood is chasing his Stateside breakthrough, but he came mightily close in the Honda Classic last year and faces a similarly challenging Florida assignment in round four at Bay Hill.

The stage is set for a thrilling finish - and it is difficult to be confident about anyone - but Hatton, Bezuidenhout and Fleetwood may take advantage of any slips from the leading groups.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards tidy Swede, Henrik Norlander, who looks a value outsider against Kevin Na in the 1.05pm UK and Ireland time match. Na closed with a double-bogey for a 76 in round three.

The final twoball of Westwood and DeChambeau is scheduled off at 6.55pm UK time.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport