Steve Palmer's US Open third-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the US Open

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 3pm Saturday

Best bets

Ludvig Aberg to win 8.35pm twoball
3pts 11-10 general

Hideki Matsuyama to win 8.02pm twoball
3pts 5-8 bet365

Sam Bennett to win 6.18pm twoball
2pts 6-5 Betfair, Power

Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama dual forecast
1pt 33-1 bet365

Story so far

Ludvig Aberg leads the US Open by a shot going into the weekend – the super Swede hanging tough after many other stars capitulated at Pinehurst No. 2.

Aberg, 20-1 at the outset, has become a general 100-30 with 36 holes to play, having reached five under par at the famous North Carolina venue. US PGA runner-up, Bryson DeChambeau, is among those tied for second place at Pinehurst.

Rory McIlroy dropped from five under par to three under in round two, but remains in the thick of things, while US PGA champion Xander Schauffele is lurking only four shots off the lead.

The third round is scheduled to start at 8.44am local time (1.44pm UK and Ireland), but a host of big names will not be in attendance. Those finishing round two six over par or better had to pack their bags. Among those missing the cut were Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Tiger Woods, Will Zalatoris, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas and Phil Mickelson.

The weather is set fair for the weekend, with sunny, hot, calm conditions for the remainder of the tournament. The drying ground will be the main defence of the course.

World number one Scottie Scheffler is due to tee off at 3.01pm (UK), with a ten-shot deficit to make up on Aberg. Scheffler parred 15 of his 18 holes in round two, but a seven at the fifth was a cardbuster which has left him with a mountain to climb over the weekend.

US Open leaderboard

-5 Ludvig Aberg
-4 Bryson DeChambeau, Thomas Detry, Patrick Cantlay
-3 Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Matthieu Pavon
-2 Hideki Matsuyama
-1 Tom Kim, Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Schauffele, Akshay Bhatia, Tim Widing, Corey Conners, Zac Blair

Selected others
+3 Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith
+4 Collin Morikawa
+5 Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brooks Koepka, Sahith Theegala

Missed cut
+6 Viktor Hovland, Max Homa
+7 Tiger Woods
+8 Will Zalatoris
+11 Justin Thomas

Best odds for the US Open

100-30 L Aberg, 9-2 B DeChambeau, R McIlroy, 9 P Cantlay, 11 X Schauffele, 14 T Finau, 16 H Matsuyama, 18 T Detry, 35 T Hatton, 45 T Kim, C Conners, M Pavon, 66 S Scheffler, 70 bar

US Open third-round predictions

The positives of recent course experience have outweighed the negatives of a knee niggle for Ludvig Aberg over the first half of the US Open.

Course changes since the 2014 US Open at Pinehurst meant players who got a competitive outing at the track in the 2019 US Amateur there were at an advantage. Aberg finished 13th in the strokeplay element of that competition, losing one down at the last-32 stage of the matchplay element.

Aberg says he has got his left knee strain under control and there have been no obvious signs of discomfort over the first two rounds. The injury was bad enough for him to skip the Wells Fargo Championship PGA Tour Signature event a month ago, then he missed the cut in the US PGA, but fifth place in the Memorial last time out was encouraging.

Aberg fully deserves favouritism going into US Open weekend. His tee-to-green solidity and unflappable temperament makes 100-30 of interest at this stage. It is only the difficulty of leading from the front on a baking, drying Pinehurst that is off-putting.

The US Open is a tournament where coming from well off the pace in round three to get into contention is entirely feasible. The fairways and greens are more receptive in the mornings and a round in the mid 60s can propel a player into contention.

Daniel Berger and Tony Finau famously started round three of the 2018 US Open 11 shots behind, but they both carded a 66 and ended up in a share of the lead going into the final round. Scottie Scheffler will be hoping something like that 2018 Shinnecock Hills drama unfolds in North Carolina this weekend.

It is difficult to imagine Bryson DeChambeau or Rory McIlroy possessing the discipline and approach-play reliabity to convert the winning chance they have created, so the biggest danger to Aberg may turn out to be Hideki Matsuyama.

A second-round 66 saw Matsuyama move to eighth place and the former Masters champion appears to have the fitness and form to threaten a first US Open title on Sunday.

Punters looking for Saturday investments are pointed towards an Aberg-Matsuyama outright dual forecast at 33-1, as well as three twoball options.

Aberg should prove too steady for DeChambeau in the final twoball (8.35pm UK), while Matsuyama can outclass Matthieu Pavon in the 8.02pm contest. An outsider to follow is Sam Bennett, who has been underrated for the 6.18pm match.

Bennett, who won the US Amateur Championship in 2022, finished 16th in the Masters last year and has posted a top-50 finish in all three of his previous Majors. The 24-year-old Texan has been impressing on the Korn Ferry Tour, finishing seventh in the Knoxville Open last month, and should arguably be favourite against Nico Echavarria – the erratic Colombian who has just made his first cut in a Major.

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