Relentless Jon Rahm looks ready to retain his Dubai silverware

Tournament starts 3.50am Thursday
Live on Sky Sports Golf from 7am

The Race to Dubai has become a two-runner affair with one tournament remaining – Francesco Molinari or Tommy Fleetwood will end the year as European top dog.

It is fitting that the Ryder Cup partners, who were so inspirational against the USA in Paris, are hogging the headlines.

Molinari's form has dipped since the Ryder Cup and Fleetwood represents the better DP World Tour Championship option of the pair, but neither offers particularly good value, especially as RTD-based tee-times mean they will probably be out in the windiest of the day-one conditions.

Lee Westwood returns to action after his emotional and doubtless draining Nedbank Challenge heroics last week, and it is likely to be tough for him to repeat that performance, while Sergio Garcia, who faded from the front in the Nedbank using a slow and overly conservative approach to the final round, may struggle to pick himself up after that disappointment.

Palmer's top tip
Jon Rahm 12-1

The defending champion could retain his trophy at the Earth Course this week – Jon Rahm may keep up his 100 per cent record of success in the DP World Tour Championship.

A lack of experience on the layout did not stop Rahm 12 months ago. He started understandably slowly before a 12-under-par weekend saw him tear through the field, a brilliant performance which came after a missed cut in the Andalucia Masters and 36th place in the HSBC Champions.

Rahm's affection for the Earth Course was obvious and although short of European Tour desert action, he is an experienced desert golfer from his college days, where he competed for the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Spanish beast was the world number one amateur for 60 weeks, winning 11 college tournaments, and he loves destroying wide-open desert tracks.

Aside from his heroics in Dubai 12 months ago, Rahm has also excelled in the Phoenix Open, in which he finished fifth as an amateur in 2015, and 16th and 11th as a pro. And his second US Tour victory came in the CareerBuilder Challenge in the Californian desert. That is strong desert form in good company and he lives in Phoenix, getting regular practice on desert courses.

Self-belief has never been an issue for Rahm – he knows he is one of the best players in the world – but defeating Tiger Woods in the Sunday singles was a dream finish to his Ryder Cup debut and has probably added an extra layer of confidence.

Prior to Paris, Rahm finished fourth in the US PGA and 11th in the Tour Championship, coming to hand nicely, then his only outing after helping Europe to their comfortable triumph has been a share of 22nd place in the HSBC Champions, where only four players in the field outscored him over the weekend.

Rahm turned 24 on Saturday, feeling fresh, fearless and focused. He has made eight starts in regulation European Tour events (non Majors and WGCs), winning three of them and only twice finishing outside the top ten. His form figures from his last four regulation European Tour starts are 1-1-5-4. He oozes assurance when downgrading from the US Tour and further glory awaits.

Next best
Thorbjorn Olesen 25-1

European Ryder Cup winners have been making merry since Paris – Garcia and Justin Rose have won, along with vice-captain Westwood – and Thorbjorn Olesen can join teammate Rahm on the Earth Course leaderboard. Like fellow debutant Rahm, Olesen enjoyed a significant Sunday singles fillip when thrashing Jordan Spieth. The Dane has never carried more confidence.

Olesen loves Dubai, which he uses as his winter practice base, and he can boast a top-three finish in each of the three most established European Tour events in the Middle East (Abu Dhabi, Qatar and the Desert Classic). Steady but unspectacular Earth Course form figures can be bolstered this week, as he has never arrived there so high up the world rankings. He has been consistently impressive this term and is fresh from back-to-back seventh-place finishes in China and Turkey.

Other selections
Martin Kaymer 60-1
Thomas Pieters 55-1
Ross Fisher 40-1

Martin Kaymer made an awful start in the Nedbank, a 76 leaving him 58th of the 72 runners, and a threeball alongside slowcoach Sam Horsfield may not have helped matters. Kaymer ground his way back under par to finish 21st, and the former world number one appears to be rediscovering much of his old quality. The three-time Abu Dhabi champ, a proven desert rat, has finished in the top 20 six times at the Earth Course.

Thomas Pieters has been infuriating to follow, often going from the sublime to the ridiculous, but the brilliant Belgian seems close to putting together a 72-hole total which will threaten a victory and the dimensions of the Earth Course play to his strengths.

The 2016 Ryder Cup star was 12 under par for the weekend in Turkey last time out, outscoring everyone over the closing 36 holes, and is clearly capable of winning in Dubai. He has three Abu Dhabi top-fives under his belt.

Complete your Earth attack with Ross Fisher, who finished fourth in the Nedbank on Sunday despite carding a nine at the 15th hole in round two, a bodyblow he followed with three closing bogeys. A seven-under-par weekend was superb, bettered only by Westwood, and Fisher, runner-up in Abu Dhabi in January, relishes open desert layouts where he can fully unleash his power.

Others to note
Lucas Bjerregaard
The powerful and massively in-form Dane closed with a 65 in the Nedbank on Sunday and is well equipped to handle the Earth Course.

Dean Burmester
The South African slugger finished fourth last year and bounced back to form with 11th spot in the Nedbank.

Rory McIlroy
The Northern Irishman surrendered to Justin Thomas in the Ryder Cup singles and has played poorly since Paris, a lacklustre approach perhaps explained by his announcement this week that he could soon give up European Tour membership. The favourite is bursting with course form, but may not be playing well enough to justify his market status.

Henrik Stenson
The injury-plagued Swede has not competed since the Ryder Cup and may be too rusty to do himself justice, even though his course credentials are impeccable.

Xander Schauffele
The HSBC Champions hero is making his course debut and lacks experience of desert competition.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello
The 2012 Dubai Desert Classic champion and 2016 runner-up has been playing nicely and could run into a place.

Staking plan
J Rahm
3.5pts each-way 12-1 general
T Olesen
2pts each-way 25-1 Sky Bet
M Kaymer
1pt each-way 60-1 Betfair
T Pieters
1pt each-way 55-1 Sky Bet
R Fisher
1pt each-way 40-1 general

The lowdown

Course Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Prize money €7.15m (€1.142m to the winner)

Length 7,675 yards Par 72 Field 60

Course records – 72 holes 263 Henrik Stenson (2013)
18 holes 62 Justin Rose (2012)

Course winners taking part Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy (twice), Henrik Stenson (twice), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm

When to bet By 3.50am Thursday

Where to watch Live on Sky Sports from 7am Thursday

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week – Nedbank Challenge 1 L Westwood (40-1), 2 S Garcia (10-1), 3 L Oosthuizen (16-1), 4 R Fisher (66-1), T5 H Li (16-1), M Wallace (50-1)

Course overview The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course was specifically built to be the venue for the European Tour's season finale. The Volvo Masters at Valderrama traditionally signalled the end of the European Tour campaign, but in 2009 the Race to Dubai started and the Jumeirah Golf Estates became home for the curtain-closer. There are four events played on the Gulf Swing of the European Tour at the start of the year – in Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Oman and Dubai – then the Tour returns nine months later for the World Championship. The greenkeepers tend to overseed the rough with ryegrass, but the fairways are wide and there is little in the way of tree trouble. The 102 brilliant white marble bunkers, a few of which have been put in the centre of fairways by a dastardly Shark, are the track's main defence. The 186-yard par-three sixth hole over water has the scope for disasters, while the 499-yard par-four ninth hole is another significant challenge on the front nine. The 195-yard par-three 17th has an island green, while the 620-yard par-five 18th has a stream which splits the fairway in two, so much late drama can occur. The greens are large, undulating and quick, with plenty of run-off areas, but the track has been humbled by winning scores of 23, 14, 19, 23, 25, 16, 21, 17 and 19 under par in the nine editions to date, the best players on the European Tour finding plenty of birdies

The story of last year A bogey-free final-round 67 was enough for Jon Rahm to triumph by a shot, a par-five at the 18th hole securing a one-shot victory

Weather forecast Sunny and extremely hot for all four days, with calm mornings followed by breezy afternoons

Type of player suited to challenge Lee Westwood, Robert Karlsson, Alvaro Quiros, Rory McIlroy (twice), Henrik Stenson (twice) and Jon Rahm have won the eight of the nine championships at the course and this long layout with wide fairways plays into the hands of the big-hitters.

Key attribute Power

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