Dubai Desert Classic tips, Steve Palmer's betting preview, lowdown & TV

TV: Sky Sports Golf from 4am Thursday

World number five Bryson DeChambeau has jetted from California to Dubai to compete in a regulation European Tour event for the first time since his final-round meltdown in July's European Open and he is 10-1 favourite for the Desert Classic.

DeChambeau made headlines for the wrong reasons in the European Open, carding a sorry Sunday 78 to destroy his winning chance before offering a controversially token handshake to the victorious Richard McEvoy on the 18th green. DeChambeau has since increased his US Tour title tally from two to five, but he is yet to register a top-ten finish in Europe.

The market leader has teed it up in the Desert Classic once for a share of 18th place in 2016, but his last visit to the UAE resulted in a missed cut by four shots in the Abu Dhabi Championship last year. Two spins in Hawaii are not ideal preparation for this week's assignment, so the short price can be overlooked. Abu Dhabi champion Shane Lowry is 33-1 for back-to-back wins.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rafa Cabrera-Bello 18-1

The Dubai Desert Classic is a home game for Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who moved to the city in 2016, and the genial Spaniard can turn comfort into silverware by topping the Emirates leaderboard on Sunday.

Cabrera-Bello was first lured to Dubai by his then girlfriend, who lived and worked there, and she became his wife in 2017. Rafa says the palm trees and weather remind him of his original home, the Canary Islands, and his favourite track in Dubai is the Majlis Course at the Emirates Club.

The Emirates is where Cabrera-Bello claimed his second European Tour title in 2012, when an opening round of 63 laid the foundation for an 18-under-par week and a one-shot success. He was runner-up in the 2016 edition, beaten by only a shot, and his last eight starts at this venue have resulted in rock-solid finishes of 20-1-17-41-MC-2-11-6. The hard and fast conditions this year, allied to thick rough, provide a golden opportunity.

The 34-year-old has contended at other Gulf gatherings too, finishing third in the 2011 Qatar Masters, fourth in Abu Dhabi in 2014 and third in Qatar, then second in the 2016 Qatar Masters, and he appears likely to seriously threaten a fourth European Tour title this week.

Cabrera-Bello ended last year strongly, with third place in the CJ Cup, 14th in the WGC-HSBC Champions, 18th in the DP World Tour Championship and sixth in the Hong Kong Open, and a closing 67 for 11th place in Abu Dhabi on Saturday was a tidy opener for 2019.

He started 2016 outside the top 100 of the world rankings, but has matured into a top-class all-rounder, becoming a force on the world stage. Third place in the 2016 WGC-Match Play was followed by a Ryder Cup debut in which he scored two-and-a-half points from three matches in a European team who lost 17-11.

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Fourth place in the 2017 Players Championship at Sawgrass was followed by fourth in the 2017 Open, fifth in the 2017 HSBC Champions, third in the 2018 WGC-Mexico Championship and tenth in the 2018 US PGA.

Cabrera-Bello no longer seems to fear elite company and the icing on the cake of this upward career curve was the opening of the Leadbetter Golf Academy Dubai at the end of last year. This new facility in his home city may encourage greater communication and contact between Cabrera-Bello and his coach David Leadbetter, further tightening one of the most dependable swings on the circuit.

Next best bet

Jordan Smith 50-1

Complete a three-pronged staking plan with a pair of Englishmen who, like Cabrera-Bello, enjoyed four useful warm-up rounds in similar conditions in Abu Dhabi last week. Competing in Abu Dhabi, particularly with the Saturday finish and an extra day to recover, was by far the best way to prepare for the Desert Classic.

Jordan Smith, who won in the UAE on the Challenge Tour in 2016 after dominating on the EuroPro Tour in 2015, quickly showed a liking for desert golf. The Bath ace compiled form figures of 39-6-23 from his opening crack at the Middle East Swing in 2017, then closed that season with 25th spot on his DP World Tour Championship debut, an excellent effort considering he was suffering with glandular fever.

Illness ruined Smith for a few months, but by the end of last year he was flying again, finishing third in the British Masters before 12th place in the DP World Tour Championship. He got engaged in December, practised hard in Dubai prior to sharing 11th place with Cabrera-Bello in Abu Dhabi, then returned to Dubai on Sunday to ready himself for the Desert Classic.

The 26-year-old, who won his maiden European Tour title in the 2017 European Open, is well suited to the Emirates, looks ready to make an impact, and it is easy to understand why early 66-1 quotes have been devoured.

Other bets

Tom Lewis 35-1

Ninth place in Abu Dhabi was a continuation of the excellent form Tom Lewis has shown since July and the 28-year-old Hertfordshire hotshot can maintain his streak in Dubai.

Lewis, an amateur star who won on the European Tour in 2011 in just his third start as a professional, has shrugged off a few barren years to rediscover his A-game. He won an Open qualifier, compiled Challenge Tour form figures of 10-3-1-3, and became a European Tour champion again, finishing sixth in the Czech Masters before winning the Portugal Masters by three shots. Fifth place in the British Masters and seventh in the DP World Tour Championship followed.

Even during his spell in the golfing wilderness, Lewis never missed a cut at the Emirates, where he has banked a cheque from all five visits, and this time he has arrived in good enough form to challenge for the trophy, closing with a 67 in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. He has rocketed up the world rankings in the last seven months and is looking a threat to all.

Players to note

Matthew Fitzpatrick
The Sheffield star made a curious decision to compete in the Singapore Open last week, rather than for Rolex Series money in Abu Dhabi, where he finished third last year. The 2016 DP World Tour Championship winner must be respected in Dubai, but the trip to Singapore has not helped.

Thorbjorn Olesen
The Dane flopped in Abu Dhabi, missing the cut after a horror start, but he is a proven desert performer who could easily bounce back to his best.

Thomas Pieters
The Belgian powerhouse was on the fringes of contention throughout in Abu Dhabi, but he was three over par for his final five holes, a mental implosion which has become all too familiar.

Romain Langasque
The French youngster ended 2018 in fine fettle, having graduated from Q-School, and is full of form and confidence. This is his Emirates debut, though.

Sergio Garcia
The legendary Spaniard, a 15-time European Tour champion, won the 2017 Desert Classic and has obvious credentials. Seventh place in Singapore has been his only 2019 outing, though, and he probably has plenty of work to do before finding top gear.

Louis Oosthuizen
The South African finished fourth in Abu Dhabi last week, an ugly Friday round ruining his title chance. He is swinging well, but 44-MC-MC is poor form in his last three Desert Classic starts.

Recommendations
R Cabrera-Bello
3pts each-way 18-1 Power
J Smith
2pts each-way 50-1 Sky Bet
T Lewis
2pts each-way 35-1 Sky Bet

Dubai Desert Classic lowdown

Course Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Prize money €2.86m (€450,000 to the winner)

Length 7,328 yards Par 72 Field 132

Course records – 72 holes 265 Haotong Li (2018) 18 holes 61 Ernie Els (1994)

Course winners taking part Ernie Els (three times), Colin Montgomerie, Thomas Bjorn, Henrik Stenson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Alvaro Quiros, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Stephen Gallacher (twice), Sergio Garcia, Haotong Li.

When to bet By 3.10am Thursday

Where to watch Live on Sky Sports from 4am Thursday

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week – Abu Dhabi Championship 1 S Lowry (50-1), 2 R Sterne (160-1), 3 J Luiten (80-1), 4 L Oosthuizen (20-1), 5 S Kjeldsen (200-1), T6 P Larrazabal (110-1), I Poulter (66-1), P Waring (300-1)

Course overview Emirates Golf Club has been used for the Desert Classic since 1989 apart from a two-year switch to Dubai Creek from 1999 to 2000.

A score of just 11 under par was enough to reach at least a playoff in the tricky conditions of 2010 and 2011, but traditionally the Emirates has been a low-scoring track where something approaching or passing 20 under par has been required for victory.

The back nine is the scoring half, with three par-fives (the tenth, 13th and 18th) and two relatively short par-threes (11th and 15th) and Tiger Woods came home in 31 shots (six under par) when winning in 2008 with a late birdie blitz.

Trees and shrubs are waiting to punish the seriously wayward, and water comes into play on ten holes, but fairly straightforward, flat greens mean the competitors can relax once they have got putter in hand. The course was slightly toughened up in 2016, with most of the bunkers deepened, but Haotong Li set a new 72-hole record with 23 under par 12 months ago.

Greenkeepers report the rough as long and thick this year, with the fairways hard and fast, so scoring may be kept in check. State-of-the-art floodlighting was built around the ninth and 18th greens before last year's edition, which can help get late rounds finished.

The story of last year Haotong Li and Rory McIlroy had a Sunday duel for the title, the Chinese outsider upsetting the former world number one by playing the final six holes in four under par, winning by a shot with a birdie at the 18th.

Weather forecast Sunny and warm throughout, with calm mornings followed by light afternoon breezes.

Type of player suited to challenge The Emirates has traditionally been a big-hitters' track which can be overpowered, with a hot putter required to reach the typically low winning total, and an excellent weather forecast suggests another birdie-fest is imminent.

Punters should focus on those who thrive in desert events, particularly this one and the DP World Tour Championship.

Key attribute Power

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