Steve Palmer's Mauritius Open predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet 

By 2.20am on Thursday morning

Where to watch the Mauritius Open

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Mauritius Open predictions

Matthieu Pavon
5pts each-way 14-1 general

Antoine Rozner
5pts each-way 14-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Tom Lewis
2pts each-way 50-1 BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes

Louis Oosthuizen has been chalked up as clear favourite for the Mauritius Open in the wake of his Alfred Dunhill Championship success, but there are reasons for ignoring the short-price market leader.

Oosthuizen has been injured for most of the year, suffering with tendon problems in his left elbow. He opted to delay surgery to complete the LIV Golf season, then was tempted by his good friend and Dunhill chief Johann Rupert to tee up in the Dunhill Links Championship and the Alfred Dunhill. This week is also a business decision for Oosthuizen, who helped with the design of the new Mauritius Open venue.

Oosthuizen has been chasing easy money – and some brilliant wedge-play and putting won him the Alfred Dunhill last week – but he was in discomfort at Leopard Creek and backing players with torn tendons at short prices is a poor punting tactic. Any significant pain this week could see a withdrawal, followed by some overdue surgery.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Matthieu Pavon 14-1

With such a seemingly vulnerable favourite taking a chunk out of the Mauritius market, the next two players in the betting hold bundles of appeal. There is only one golf tournament to attack this week and French duo Matthieu Pavon and Antoine Rozner deserve great attention from the punting community.

Pavon loves Mauritius and is the touring professional for Anahita GC, which is on the east coast of this wonderful island. As Anahita's ambassador, Pavon is a regular visitor to Mauritius for practice, as well as for the tournament.

Pavon made his Mauritius Open debut in 2017 as a DPWT rookie and finished fifth. That was at Heritage Golf Club's original layout, which has become known as Le Chateau Golf Course. Le Chateau was designed by the same man who led the creation of this week's venue – La Reserve – Peter Matkovich.

Pavon made his second Mauritius Open start in 2018 – at Anahita – and finished second. He was 17th at Le Chateau in 2019, then 32nd last year at Mont Choisy in the only subsequent Mauritius Open. The 31-year-old has arrived this year carrying more self-belief than ever.

Pavon's maiden DPWT title came in the Spanish Open in October – a four-shot romp which left Jon Rahm chasing his shadow. Pavon was sixth in the Dunhill Links the week before his win and his last two starts have resulted in 15th place in the Nedbank Challenge and fifth in the DP World Tour Championship.

Pavon pocketed a PGA Tour card through his final position in the Race to Dubai rankings, he has just penetrated the top 100 of the world rankings for the first time, and his fun looks set to continue at La Reserve.

Next best bet

Antoine Rozner 14-1

Pavon and Rozner are the two highest-ranked players in this field – and they can show why. Rozner is a three-time DPWT champion and his last victory was by a five-shot margin in last year's Mauritius Open. That was at Mont Choisy – another Matkovich design.

Rozner is a two-time Challenge Tour winner who has paraded enough silverware in his seven years as a professional to realise that he is a big fish in a small pond this week. The La Reserve line-up is pitifully weak.

Rozner made his Mauritius Open debut in 2018. He was massively inexperienced at the time – winless as a pro and outside the top 600 of the world rankings – but he finished seventh. He was second at Le Chateau in 2019, so has form figures of 7-2-1 in this event.

The 30-year-old has been playing some rock-solid recent golf, finishing tenth in the Dunhill Links, 11th in the DPWT Championship and 15th in the Alfred Dunhill last week.

Other selection

Tom Lewis 50-1

The career of Tom Lewis is right back on track. He had been playing well on the Challenge Tour, finishing 16th in the Grand Final at the start of last month, then a fortnight later he was awesome over the final three rounds of the DPWT Qualifying School.

Opening rounds of 71, 69 and 73 left Lewis tailed off at Q School, but then he fired 61, 67 and 65 to comfortably secure his DPWT card. That 20-under-par burst for the final 54 holes was vintage Lewis and meant sixth place at Q School.

The 32-year-old is a two-time DPWT champion who is a class above most of his rivals this week. He won on the Challenge Tour, then won the 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Championship, then finished second in the 2020 WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational.

Lewis has always been a brilliant links golfer. He led the Open after round one when still an amateur in 2011, he finished 11th in the 2019 Open and he has had three top-tens in the Dunhill Links. The sweet-swinging Englishman could fall in love with La Reserve this week.

La Reserve course guide

Course La Reserve Golf Links, Heritage Golf Club, Bel Ombre, Mauritius
Prize money $1.2m ($200,000 to the winner)
Length 7,111 yards
Par 72 – four par-fives, ten par-fours, four par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Matthieu Pavon (96), Antoine Rozner (133), Sebastian Soderberg (149), Marcel Siem (151), Matthew Southgate (158)

When to bet By 2.20am on Thursday morning

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

Time difference Mauritius is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week – Alfred Dunhill Championship 1 L Oosthuizen (14-1), 2 C Schwartzel (30-1), 3 C Bezuidenhout (14-1), T4 M Penge (90-1), M Schmid (28-1), D Van Driel (100-1), T7 A Del Rey (66-1), C Jarvis (100-1), J Schaper (30-1), A Sullivan (60-1)

Course type Links

Course overview La Reserve Golf Links opened on December 1 this year, so the Mauritius Open competitors have a brand-new course to attack. It is the first and only contemporary links track in the Indian Ocean. South African Peter Matkovich, with assistance from Louis Oosthuizen, designed the course. It has been crafted as a “strategic, undulating course that plays in the traditional links style, with running fairways, pot bunkers and long grasses”. The neighbouring Le Chateau course at Heritage Golf Club staged the Mauritius Open in 2015, 2017 and 2019

Story of last year Antoine Rozner cruised to a five-shot victory at Mont Choisy, another Peter Matkovich-designed course

Weather forecast Warm, with a mixture of sunshine and showers, and light breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge The Renaissance Club, home of the Scottish Open since 2019, is an example of a contemporary links used on the DP World Tour. Yas Links (2022, 2023 Abu Dhabi Championship) is another. Touch and control around the greens may be the key in a low-scoring week

Key attribute Touch/putting

Spotlight insight 

Two of the six Mauritius Opens have been won by a South African

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