Steve Palmer's Bahrain Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

When to bet on the Bahrain Championship

By 3.30am on Thursday morning

It's also worth noting that Kwiff are offering a £30 free bet when new customers bet £10 on golf 

Where can I watch the Bahrain Championship

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday morning

Steve Palmer's Bahrain Championship predictions

Keita Nakajima
3pts each-way 18-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Yannik Paul
3pts each-way 18-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Alex Fitzpatrick
2pts each-way 28-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Harrison Endycott
1pt each-way 60-1 Hills

Ugo Coussaud
0.5pt each-way 225-1 bet365

Matthew Baldwin
0.5pt each-way 175-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

New customers can get a £30 free bet when they bet on the Bahrain Championship with Kwiff

Steve Palmer's Bahrain Championship preview

Rasmus Hojgaard is a short-priced favourite for the Bahrain Championship after a series of near-misses in recent weeks, culminating in a runner-up finish behind Thorbjorn Olesen in Ras al Khaimah on Sunday.

Hojgaard putted superbly but hit some wild drives. Discipline will be needed off the tee in Bahrain, given the forecast wind, and the Dane may struggle for concentration in his fourth consecutive week of competition. He was one over par for his final 11 holes, closing with a miserable bogey six.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Keita Nakajima 18-1

Japanese starlet Keita Nakajima was making his course debut and his first start of the year in last week's Ras al Khaimah Championship, so an opening 72 was understandable. Once he settled, the 23-year-old closed with rounds of 66, 66 and 67 for a share of fourth place.

The former world number one amateur is bristling with potential. Nakajima has won four times on the Japan Tour, as well as finishing runner-up six times, and he closed last year with form figures of 10-1-20-2-4-2 on his home circuit.

The windy Bahrain forecast holds no fears for Nakajima, who finished fifth in the 2018 Australian Open when an 18-year-old amateur at a breezy Lakes Course in Sydney. He won the Australian Amateur Championship that year at the ever windy Lake Karrinyup in Perth.

Nakajima won the Asia-Pacific Amateur title in 2021 at Dubai Creek, so he has won a prestigious amateur event in this region.

Next best bet

Yannik Paul 18-1

This week's layout appears a test of approach play more than anything – there is water in play over the final four holes and the champion will have to hold his nerve over some daunting approaches down the stretch. Yannik Paul is one of the best iron players in the business.

The German started this year with eighth place in the Dubai Invitational, before missing the Desert Classic cut by a shot, then carding four solid rounds for a share of fourth place at Ras al Khaimah.

Paul loves desert golf – he lived in Colorado for a long time and won the 2020 Arizona Open – and this greens-in-regulation machine should be in the mix throughout.

Other selections

Alex Fitzpatrick 28-1
Harrison Endycott 60-1
Ugo Coussaud 225-1
Matthew Baldwin 175-1

Alex Fitzpatrick is another excellent iron player who should be finding the right sections of these quirky dancefloors. He earned a DP World Tour card at the end of last season, having finished runner-up in the ISPS Handa World Invitational in August and fifth in the European Masters.

Fitzpatrick, who won on the Challenge Tour in the summer, has fully established himself on the DPWT and finished eighth in the Australian Open in December. This year started with 16th place in both the Desert Classic and Ras al Khaimah for Fitzpatrick and it seems only a matter of time before he gets off the mark on the DPWT.

Harrison Endycott won the PGA Tour Qualifying School just before Christmas – a four-shot triumph – before starting the new campaign with 39th place in The American Express. A missed cut on unsuitable terrain at Torrey Pines came on Thursday, affording plenty of time to freshen up and jet to Bahrain. The Aussie is typically strong on approach and ultra-comfortable in a breeze.

The French should be inspired by Matthieu Pavon's Torrey Pines heroics and Ugo Coussaud looks the best value option. He won on the Challenge Tour in India in April, then essentially wrapped up his DPWT card with a strong fortnight in Abu Dhabi, finishing 15th in the Abu Dhabi Challenge and runner-up in the UAE Challenge. He likes desert golf and closed with a 67 for 34th place on Sunday.

Matthew Baldwin must also be in the staking plan. The Southport man, who grew up playing at Royal Birkdale, is exceptional at controlling his ball in the wind. He made his DPWT breakthrough in windy conditions at the SDC Championship in March, winning by seven shots.

Baldwin, who won on the Challenge Tour in 2011, finished 21st in a MENA Tour event at this week's course five years ago. He has missed the cut by a shot in his last two tournaments, but can hit the ground running in Bahrain.

Course guide for the Bahrain Championship

• Course Royal Golf Club, Al Mazrowiah, Bahrain 
• Prize money $2.5m ($425,000 to the winner)
• Length 7,261 yards
• Par 72 – four par fives; ten par fours; four par threes
• Field 132 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rasmus Hojgaard (70), Jordan Smith (81), Keita Nakajima (92), Pablo Larrazabal (102), Yannik Paul (103)
• When to bet By 3.30am on Thursday morning
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday morning
• Time difference Bahrain is three hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Ras al Khaimah Championship 1 T Olesen (18-1), 2 R Hojgaard (12-1), 3 F Lacroix (60-1), T4 M Kieffer (150-1), K Nakajima (35-1), Y Paul (22-1), C Shinkwin (80-1), B Stone (150-1), T9 J Grenville-Wood (500-1), A Hidalgo (350-1), R Mansell (40-1), S Soderberg (50-1)
• Course type Desert
• Course overview The 2011 Volvo Golf Champions – a DP World Tour event won by Paul Casey – is the only previous DPWT course form for punters to study. Royal GC yielded a 20-under-par winning total that year, with 36 players reaching double-digits under par. The Bahrain Open was played on the MENA Tour at this venue in 2019 and 2020. The Colin Montgomerie-designed layout, opened in 2009 and made entirely from paspalum grass, is lined by sandy waste bunkers. Man-made lakes punish errant shots on the final four holes. The back nine has floodlights, affording after-dark golf. The fairways and greens have lots of undulations
• Weather forecast A calm Thursday is set to be followed by three days of moderate to fresh breeze. Sunny and pleasant throughout
• Type of player suited to the challenge Accuracy into heavily contoured greens appears the key to success. Hitting the right sections of the dancefloors should yield low scores
• Key attribute Accuracy

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