Italy v Northern Ireland predictions: Northern Ireland can keep the score down

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v Northern Ireland in the World Cup 2022 European Qualifiers on Thursday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football, 7.45pm Thursday

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals
1pt 43-40 bet365

Team news

Italy
Midfielders Jorginho and Bryan Cristante are injured. Moise Kean has left the squad.

Northern Ireland
Liam Boyce, Jordan Jones and Conor Washington have pulled out. Jamal Lewis and Paddy McNair are doubts.

Match preview

Northern Ireland will be out to defend in Parma but they are worth backing to do it fastidiously enough to avoid a drubbing against in-form Italy.

This World Cup qualifier at the Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma looks a pretty daunting task for Northern Ireland, who cannot buy a win under their new head coach Ian Baraclough. In contrast, the Italians are looking pretty much unbeatable.

But if we know anything about Northern Ireland it's that they do shape and organisation as well as most teams and rarely get blown away. Since being drubbed by Norway they have conceded seven goals in six internationals, five of which produced two or fewer goals.

Given that the goal threat from Northern Ireland looks negligible, under 2.5 goals at odds-against is preferred over Italy to win to nil at 4-7. We'll have the two lowest-scoring stalemates on our side and neither result would be regarded as impossible. Unlikely perhaps, but not impossible. After all, the visitors have drawn four of their eight games under Baraclough.

Italy manager Roberto Mancini is, in contrast, spoiled for choice up front where six of the ex-Manchester City chief's squad have hit double figures in Serie A, including the Sassuolo duo of Domenico Berardi and Francesco Caputo.

The Italians are on a magnificent 22-match unbeaten run under Mancini with clean sheets in nine of their last 12, a record they would be disappointed not to extend.

Italy's six competitive matches last autumn produced nine goals, all six games copping for under 2.5 backers.

Key stat

Italy's six competitive matches last autumn produced nine goals.

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