England v Poland predictions: Visitors struggling for goals without key man

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for England v Poland in European World Cup qualifying Group I on Wednesday.

Where to watch

ITV, 7.45pm Wednesday

Best bet

England win to nil
1pt Evs general

Team news

England
Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka have returned to their clubs.

Poland
Robert Lewandowski (knee) plus Mateusz Klich, Lukas Skorupski, Grzegorz Krychowiak and Kamil Piatkowski (all Covid-19) have withdrawn from the squad.

Match preview

Caution was the watchword for England as they eased to a 2-0 success over Albania in Tirana on Sunday and another solid performance should be enough to see off Poland.

The visitors approach the crunch Wembley encounter without talisman Robert Lewandowski and four players who have tested positive for Covid-19, including influential midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak, giving England's prospects of keeping another clean sheet a huge boost.

Lewandowski scored twice in Poland's win over Andorra on Sunday but also picked up a knee injury which rules him out of this clash.

Nine points was Gareth Southgate's aim for the March qualifiers.

Poland were always expected to provide a sterner test than San Marino or Albania, but England's task has become much more straightforward.

Poland were already approaching the contest at a disadvantage having dropped points in a 3-3 away draw with Hungary last Thursday and they must avoid defeat to escape falling five points behind their principal rivals.

The key to their hopes is finding a way to trouble England without their one genuinely world-class player.

Lewandowski had helped himself to 66 goals in 118 internationals and his absence places a huge responsibility on the shoulders of his regular strike-partner Arkadiusz Milik, who has a more modest record of 15 in 58.

Milik burst on to the international scene with ten goals in his first 22 caps but has suffered from several injury problems in recent years and has notched just five international goals since 2015.

The Napoli forward was loaned to Marseille in the January transfer window and has made a reasonable start to life in the south of France, scoring four goals in eight appearances.

However, it is asking a lot for Milik to be the key man against an England side who seem heavily focused on keeping the opposition at bay.

There was some criticism of Southgate after a defensive-minded England finished below Belgium and Denmark in their autumn 2020 Nations League campaign. But the 50-year-old continues to prefer playing with two holding midfielders and seemed content after the weekend victory in Tirana, which was an exercise in substance over style.

The points were pocketed despite England registering just nine shots, four of them on target, and while the personnel may change – Jordan Henderson and Jack Grealish will be strong contenders to force their way back in – the shape appears to be set in stone at least until the start of Euro 2020.

Southgate relied on his front three of Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane and Phil Foden, plus forward-thinking midfielder Mason Mount, to provide enough moments of quality to defeat Albania and a similar approach should seal victory over the Poles, who are suspect in defence.

Poland's success over Andorra was routine but they haven't managed a shutout in their last five competitive away games and a continuance of that trend could leave them playing catch-up on the road to Qatar 2022.

Key stat

England have won and kept a clean sheet in four of their last five matches.

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