Croatia v Wales predictions: World Cup heroes should keep Wales quiet in qualifier

Where to watch Croatia v Wales

Viaplay Sports 1 & S4C, 7.45pm Saturday

Best bets

Croatia to win & under 3.5 goals
2pts 21-20 BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes

Ethan Ampadu to be shown a card
1pt 13-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Croatia v Wales odds

Croatia 4-7
Wales 11-2
Draw 3-1

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Croatia v Wales team news

Croatia
The hosts have no injury concerns so captain Luka Modric is set to win his 163rd cap.

Wales
Ben Davies and Wayne Hennessey have pulled out of the squad with injuries and Nottingham Forest forward Brennan Johnson is also out.

Croatia v Wales predictions

Wales start life after Gareth Bale with a testing trip to Croatia, who followed up their run to the 2018 World Cup final by reaching the semi-finals in Qatar in December.

Croatia's hopes of making back-to-back finals were dashed by Argentina in the semis but they picked themselves up to defeat Morocco 2-1 in the third-place playoff.

Their 2018 and 2022 World Cup campaigns represent a fantastic achievement for a nation with a population of around four million – not much bigger than that of Wales – and they also qualified for the 2022-23 Nations League Finals by finishing above Group A1 rivals France, Denmark and Austria.

Wales had their own dream run to the semi-finals of Euro 2016 but they were unable to make much of an impact at their first World Cup finals since 1958.

Rob Page's men finished bottom of Group B, drawing with the USA before defeats against Iran and England, and their only goal in Qatar was a Bale penalty.

While the Welsh skipper announced his retirement from football in January, his former Real Madrid teammate Luka Modric – at 37, four years Bale's senior – is still the heartbeat of a classy Croatia side.

Defender Dejan Lovren has retired but experienced campaigners Ivan Perisic, Mateo Kovacic, Marcelo Brozovic and Andrej Kramaric are also likely to start against Wales and backing Croatia to win and under 3.5 goals looks a solid bet.

Four of their five wins in 2022 World Cup qualifying featured under 3.5 goals - the exception was a 7-1 victory over minnows Malta - and they won 1-0 in France and beat Denmark 1-0 and 2-1 in last year's Nations League.

Centre-back Josko Gvardiol has had chastening recent clashes with Messi and Erling Haaland, who scored five of Manchester City's seven goals in their Champions League last-16 rout of RB Leipzig, but the 21-year-old should have a more comfortable time against Wales.

The Dragons booked their place at the World Cup thanks to a deflected Bale free-kick in the playoff final against Ukraine and were relegated from League A of the Nations League after a 1-0 home defeat to Poland.

Their 3-0 loss to England at the World Cup was a seventh defeat in ten internationals, six of them featuring under 3.5 goals, and it may also be worth backing Ethan Ampadu to be shown a card. The Chelsea man was booked in his last two Nations League appearances against Belgium and the Netherlands and has picked up 17 cautions in 47 starts on loan in Serie A in the past two seasons. 

Key stat

Only two of Croatia's last 17 internationals have featured more than three goals

Probable teams

Croatia (4-3-3): Livakovic; Juranovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Vlasic, Kramaric, Perisic 

Wales (3-5-2): Ward; Mepham, Rodon, Cabango; Roberts, Ramsey, Ampadu, Wilson, Williams; James, Moore 

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