Giant-killers in the FA Cup and what they teach us about football everywhere

Fifty years ago Hereford of the Southern League beat Newcastle of the First Division in an FA Cup third-round replay. They won 2-1. Ronnie Radford, who sadly died this week, equalised from 30 yards to take the tie to extra time then Ricky George turned in the box to score the winner. John Motson’s BBC commentary made a name for them and himself.

Now Hereford are a phoenix club in the National League North. On Friday night they play in the FA Cup first round against Portsmouth, currently in League One but at some former times in the top division – and twice winners of the FA Cup. The game is being shown live on the BBC.

The biggest potential upsets in the first round are when non-league teams play League One opponents. The next biggest are when non-league teams play League Two opponents. Half of the ties in this season’s first round – 20 out of 40 – pit a side from below the EFL against a side from within the EFL.

Those sorts of games are the FA Cup’s selling point in its early rounds – and sometimes in later rounds as well. They also illustrate important points about football generally. Points about goals and wins.

The greater the apparent difference in ability between two teams the more goals there are likely to be. And the more goals there are likely to be the more likely it becomes that one team will win in normal time – in every knockout tie there has to be a winner eventually, sometimes after a replay, extra time or penalties.

Elsewhere tonight in the first round Sheffield Wednesday play fellow League One side Morecambe. Thirty seasons ago Wednesday were a Premier League team who reached the FA Cup final, where they lost in extra time after a replay to Arsenal – who a month earlier had beaten them in the League Cup final.

The figures that follow come from the last 30 completed FA Cup seasons, 1992-93 to 2021-22. Any replays, extra time and penalty shootouts have been ignored, so every contest in the sample is of the same length.

When non-League teams played League One opponents there were 3.1 goals per game. When non-League teams played League Two opponents there were 2.9 goals per game. And when League Two teams played League One opponents there were 2.7 goals per game.

The greater the theoretical difference in ability between teams the higher the score. And the higher the score the more likely it was there would be a winner.

FA Cup upsets are remembered fondly because they are unusual. More often than not, a team from a higher division will beat opponents from a lower division. Otherwise the composition of the leagues would make no sense.

As Geoffrey Green put it more than 60 years ago in an Official History of the FA Cup: “Proverbially, a good big one can always beat a good little one, but the fact that sometimes he does not adds a spice to life. This the spice the Cup offers.”

Back to the last 30 seasons. When non-League teams played League One opponents, 24 per cent of games were drawn. When non-League teams played League Two opponents, 27 per cent of games were drawn. When League Two teams played League One opponents, 28 per cent of games were drawn. And when a pair of League Two teams or a pair of League One teams played each other, 32 per cent of games were drawn.

The greater the anticipated difference in ability between teams the lower the chance of a draw, and the more likely it became that one or the other would win. Usually it was the supposedly better team – but not always.

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