Backing the draw in potential FA Cup upsets could be the best route to profit

The upsets came thick and fast at the 2022 World Cup but should we expect more of the same in this weekend’s FA Cup third-round ties?

The world's oldest cup competition is synonymous with giant-killings but, whereas backing the outsiders blind in each match during the World Cup group stage would have returned a profit for the fourth straight tournament, the same hasn't always been the case in the FA Cup.

This article takes data for the last seven third rounds, dating back to the 2015-16 season – a sample of 224 matches – and uses the top 90-minute match price as printed in the Racing Post.

As the table shows, backing the underdogs blind would have returned a profit of +32.75 to a £1 level stake, but you would have made a loss in four of those seven seasons.

*Two matches with joint-favourites

The bulk of the profit was made in the 2018-19 season which saw three of the biggest four upsets in terms of match odds. Non-league outfit Barnet, who were 11-1 shots, shocked Championship side Sheffield United and League Two Newport were also a double-figure price when they knocked out Premier League Leicester.

Backing the favourites and the draw also returned steady losses most years as, unsurprisingly, the bookies have a better handle on domestic teams they see every week compared to the World Cup when international sides are thrown together in the weeks leading up to the tournament.

Let’s slice the data a little finer to try and find FA Cup trends that have been more consistent. Across those seven seasons there have been 96 matches in which a Premier League side faced opponents from a lower division. The top-flight side won 55 of those matches (57 per cent) but failed to return a profit in any of the seasons and posted losses against all three divisions of the Football League.

If there is a bit of value to be had, it appears to come from taking on Premier League teams, especially when they are on the road to lower-league opposition.

Non-Premier League sides have a 17.7 per cent strike-rate against the big boys, which rises to 21.7 per cent at home (+9.20 to level stakes) albeit only proving profitable in four of the last seven years. The more reliable trend is to back the draw, which has occurred in 17 of the 46 games (37 per cent, +19.55 to level stakes) and has been profitable in six of the last seven seasons.

It is worth pointing out that there were no third-round replays in the last two seasons due to Covid but the 90-minute results for those campaigns don't look out of sync.

The shortest-priced Premier League team who were held on the road were Liverpool at 4-9 in 2015-16, when League Two's Exeter took them back to Anfield for a replay. Coincidentally, the Merseysiders were also the shortest-price flops at home during our sample of games, having drawn 0-0 with Plymouth at odds of 1-6 the following year.

There are seven ties with EFL sides hosting top-flight outfits this weekend, with Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Hull and Cardiff from the Championship, Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford from League One and League Two strugglers Gillingham all rolling out the red carpet.

There is no guarantee that backing the draw will continue to prove profitable in those games but recent trends suggest there is a reasonable chance that more than half of the EFL sides will still have their name in the hat when the fourth-round draw takes place at the end of the weekend.

The final table shows a summary of each division's record against Premier League opponents. Counterintuitively, it is League Two that has the best strike-rate and level-stakes record.

It's possible that top-flight managers rotate their teams more, perhaps taking too much for granted, when facing opponents from the EFL's bottom rung but, as it is the smallest sample size in terms of matches played, it’s probably best to take that finding with a pinch of salt.

The FA Cup may have lost its lustre in many observers' eyes, particularly with the same handful of clubs lifting the famous trophy come the end of the season. However, recent evidence suggests there should still be just enough fans from lower down the pyramid celebrating noteworthy results on third-round weekend to keep the purists content.

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