Southampton v Newcastle predictions: Magpies can muster first-leg success

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Southampton v Newcastle in the EFL Cup semi-final, first leg on Tuesday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football & Main Event, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Newcastle
1pt 3-4 bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power

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Team news

Southampton
Juan Larios and Tino Livramento miss out while Theo Walcott, Alex McCarthy and Armel Bella-Kotchap are doubts.

Newcastle
Jonjo Shelvey, Matt Targett and Emil Krafth are sidelined.

Match preview

Newcastle's lack of silverware is a major source of frustration among their supporters but they can continue their EFL Cup progress by beating Southampton in the first leg of their semi-final at the St Mary's Stadium.

Finishing in the Premier League top four is Newcastle's priority but manager Eddie Howe is aware of the fans' thirst for trophies and can afford to fully focus on the semi-final matches against Southampton which fall either side of FA Cup fourth-round weekend.

Newcastle fell at the first hurdle in the FA Cup, losing 2-1 at League One Sheffield Wednesday, so their only realistic chance of a trophy is the EFL Cup and they will give it everything they have.

Southampton will be equally determined and their confidence has risen thanks to a run of three wins in their last four games.

However, Nathan Jones's side have been anchored to the foot of the Premier League since Boxing Day and their survival hopes were dealt another blow at the weekend with a 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa.

Saints have been performing better in knockout competitions and delivered their best performance of the season in the EFL Cup quarter-finals, winning 2-0 at home to Manchester City.

Southampton were worthy winners on the night, but City were a shadow of their usual selves and failed to function effectively in midfield with Kalvin Phillips struggling on his first and only start of the season.

Newcastle are unlikely to be anywhere near as poor as City were that day, so Southampton may have to find an even better performance if they are to establish a lead before next Tuesday's trip to Tyneside.

Jones has worked on making Southampton tougher to play against and there have been signs of progress as his team have conceded just four goals in their last five matches.

However, scoring goals continues to be an issue and the cutting edge was missing as Southampton slid to defeat at home to Villa on Saturday.

Newcastle also drew a blank at the weekend as they were held to a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace, but the result lifted them above Manchester United into third place.

They dominated at Selhurst Park, carving out a 61 per cent possession share and winning the shot count 16 to six, and the result extended their top-flight unbeaten run to 15 games.

Only four of Newcastle's ten league wins have come on the road, although they include a November 4-1 success at Southampton which signalled the end of Ralph Hasenhuttl's spell in charge of the south-coast side.

Southampton have taken steps forward since the change in the dugout, but there remains a gulf in class between them and Newcastle and it could be reflected by the first-leg result.