Vuelta a Espana 2021 prediction, free cycling tip and analysis

Free cycling tips, best bets and analysis for the Vuelta a Espana 2021.

Where to watch

Stage One
Eurosport 1, 4.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Richard Carapaz
1pt each-way 10-1 bet365

Betting preview

Primoz Roglic is the hot favourite to complete a hat-trick of Vuelta a Espana victories, and it is not hard to see why the Slovenian is barely any bigger than evens in advance of the opening stage in Burgos.

The Olympic time trial champion is relatively fresh, having crashed out of the Tour de France before the halfway stage, and the course, featuring a lot of shorter, sharper climbing tests and climaxing with a TT, looks right up his street.

But while he is the obvious winner, he may not represent the best betting value, and the preferred strategy is to back Richard Carapaz each-way.

The Ineos rider, whose legendary status in Ecuador was guaranteed by his gold medal in the Olympic road race in Japan, gave Roglic a massive test in last year’s Vuelta and should do so again this time.

Ineos are no longer the force they were in their Sky incarnation but they have sent a strong team to Spain and even though Egan Bernal will set off as their top dog, Carapaz will be no sacrificial lamb and might even benefit from his role as high-class second seed as he could be the rider to provide the sucker punch on any given stage as multiple arrows are fired at Roglic in a bid to break him.

Bernal is respected and Ineos also have Adam Yates up their sleeve, so the pressure on Roglic to keep them all under control will be intense for the entire race.

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