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Tour de France

Tour de France: stage 11 betting preview, free tip & TV details

Caleb Ewan value to make most of final chance for sprinters to shine in Toulouse

Caleb Ewan (centre) is touched off in a sprint finish by Patrick Bevin during the Tour Down Under
Caleb Ewan (centre) is touched off in a sprint finish by Patrick Bevin during the Tour Down UnderCredit: Daniel Kalisz

ITV4, Eurosport 1 & S4C, 12.45pm Wednesday

The Tour de France resumes after a rest day with 171 riders remaining in the field and the darling of France Julian Alaphilippe in the yellow jersey, but with the spectre of Geraint Thomas looming just one minute and 12 seconds behind.

Wednesday's stage from Albi to Toulouse is unlikely to have any bearing on the overall standings unless there are strong crosswinds, and everything looks set for a bunch sprint.

Toulouse last staged a Tour finish in 2011 when Mark Cavendish took the honours for only the second time in his career, though opportunists can take heart that the previous finish in Toulouse, in 2003, went to Juan-Antonio Flecha, won from a breakaway.

However, this year the stage possibly affords the sprinters their last chance of a victory before Paris, and with no one rider dominating the sprints in this year's Tour many teams will be hopeful that their fast men can oblige, so there should be plenty of teams keen to chase down any escapees.

The final kilometre is pan flat and strongly favours the speed merchants rather than the strongmen, and the market reflects that with Dylan Groenewegen and Elia Viviani the favourites.

Both have already secured stage successes and either could go in again. However, it might be worth taking one final chance on Caleb Ewan, who has already recorded a second place and three third places. An awful lot of luck is needed in these bunch finishes and Ewan has had little, often following the wrong wheel or being checked at an inopportune moment.

It was a similar story for Ewan in his two Giro d'Italia campaigns - it took him until stage seven to win in 2017 and stage eight this year. He has a history of pulling out of Grand Tours once the high mountains start so this may well be his last hurrah.

Recommendation
C Ewan
2pt each-way 5-1 Betway


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Craig ThakeHead of data (technical & development)

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