Tour de France predictions and cycling betting tips: Pogacar can double up

Free cycling tips, best bets and analysis for the 2021 Tour de France.

Where to watch the Tour de France

Stage One
ITV4 & Eurosport 1, 11.30am Saturday

Best bets

Tadej Pogacar to win the Tour de France
5pts 7-4 bet365

Simon Yates to win a stage
3pts 7-4 bet365

Tour de France preview

The hopes of the French public are pinned on Les Bleus this summer as their football world champions go in search of Euro 2020 glory but deep down it is another colour they yearn for one of their own to be clad in.

It is 36 years since a Frenchman - Bernard Hinault - last rode on to the Champs-Elysees in late July in the revered yellow jersey and as winner of the Tour de France.

Five Spaniards, three Americans – two of whom were later stripped of their crowns – three Brits, two Italians, one Dane, an Irishman, German, Australian, Luxembourger, Colombian and, most recently, Slovenian have crossed the finish line in Paris in yellow since, and 80-1 David Gaudu is probably France’s best hope of ending the foreign invasion of France’s premier sporting event.

Tadej Pogacar led home a one-two of Slovenians at last year’s race, taking over in the yellow jersey from compatriot Primoz Roglic in astonishing fashion on the penultimate day’s time trial up La Planche des Belles Filles.

The 22-year-old began that day almost a minute down, but by the end of the 36.2km he had established a 59-second lead over Roglic.
Not content with mopping up the yellow jersey, Pogacar took home the white jersey for best young rider and polka dots as King of the Mountains. Not bad for a then 21-year-old at only his second Grand Tour.

Pogacar’s triumph last year is one of a number of examples of young riders beginning to dominate at cycling’s top table. Multi-talented duo Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel are starting to become top dogs in one-day races, and 2019 Tour winner Egan Bernal claimed his second Grand Tour at last month’s Giro d’Italia. The frightening thing for Pogacar's rivals is that he seems to be only getting better.

The Slovene has already claimed overall victories at the season-opening UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico and this month’s Tour of Slovenia and warmed up for the Tour with fifth in his national championship road race and third in the time trial.

One potential weakness is the strength of his UAE Emirates supporting cast. On numerous occasions he was isolated last year – not that it fazed him – and it will be an area Roglic’s Jumbo-Visma and an all-star Ineos squad will hope to exploit.

Roglic definitely has the upper hand over his compatriot when it comes to those in his service and you can be sure he will use his lieutenants whenever he can. But just how much will last year’s agonising near-miss be on his mind?

He recovered to defend his Vuelta a Espana title a couple of months later but last year’s edition was contested over 18 stages rather than the customary 21 for a Grand Tour and last year’s Tour de France wasn’t the first time he had gone is as favourite and fallen short.

Roglic has opted for a light build-up, preferring to hone his preparations away from races at high-altitude training camps in the hope that he peaks at the opportune moment for two potentially pivotal mountain challenges in the third week.

Peaking at the right time is something Ineos leaders have had down to a tee since they began dominating the Tour as Team Sky.

All of the eggs this year are in the basket of 2018 victor Geraint Thomas who has looked to be coming into form.

Britain's Geraint Thomas is chasing a second yellow jerseyCredit: Bas Czerwinski

He won the Tour of Romandie in early May and was a good third at his final prep race, the Criterium du Dauphine, to teammate Richie Porte, who will be in his servitude over the next three weeks.

Two flat time-trials are certainly a bonus and so too is arguably the strongest squad Inoes have ever fielded which includes two Giro d’Italia winners and a former world champion.

But there is a growing sense that the new generation of the peloton are now the dominant force and it could be Slovenian phenomenon Pogacar who is resplendent in yellow for a second year running.

Thomas’s fellow Brit Simon Yates finshed third at last month’s Giro but will be hunting stage wins, not the yellow jersey, over the next three weeks.

He did the same in 2019 when eighth in Italy before claiming two Tour stage successes. Stage 15 into Andorra, Yates’s home these days, looks one of a few good chances for him to cross the line first.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport