Froome on his way to Paris in yellow after fine time trial

Montgeron - Paris (Champs-Elysees)
Eurosport 1/ITV4, 3.50pm Sunday

Chris Froome stands on the verge of his fourth Tour de France triumph in five years, barring accident on the final stage to Paris, after stretching his lead with an excellent time trial in Marseille on Saturday.

Froome finished third, six seconds behind stage winner Maciej Bodnar but comfortably in front of his rivals for the yellow jersey. He extended his lead to 54 seconds over Rigoberto Uran, who leapfrogged Romain Bardet into second place. Bardet, who appeared to crack badly, just managed to hold third place on the podium, 2min 20sec behind Froome overall with Mikel Landa only one second further back in fourth.

There was no other major movement on the leaderboard, with Simon Yates holding on to seventh place and the white jersey as best young rider. Warren Barguil (mountains) and Michael Matthews (points) are poised to be the other major jersey winners in Paris.

The French capital is almost guaranteed to produce a sprint finish but the prestigious stage looks wide open now that Marcel Kittel, who has dominated with five stage wins, is out of the race.

With Arnaud Demare, Mark Cavendish and Peter Sagan also missing from the finale, the sprint along the Champs-Elysees could end up as a free-for-all with no team or rider able to stamp their authority. It is a long way from the last turn out of the Place de la Concorde, especially if there is a headwind, and timing will be crucial, as will choosing the right wheel.

Andre Greipel is going for a Paris-hat-trick and he is the proven Tour winner on flat straights, with rivals Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen preferring harder finishes. But those two have won on this year’s Tour, whereas Greipel has done no better than third. That has backed up the impression formed already this season that Greipel is not the rampaging force of old, with only four wins so far (eight by this stage last season and 12 in 2015).

Boasson Hagen, Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb have all finished closer to victory than Greipel with second places in flat sprints on this Tour, which is another indicator that this is a wide-open contest.

Even so, Greipel is still the one whose odds look most out of line with his ability and results. It is worth remembering that his win in Paris last year came at the expense of (in order) Sagan, Kristoff, Boasson Hagen and Matthews, when he took advantage of the big-name sprinters to win for the only time on the 2016 Tour.

That scenario could play out again as Greipel's results this year do not look so bad once you remove the top sprinters who are missing from the field. On paper he would have won ten times out of 20 and been in the top three a further five times.

A couple of newcomers to the Champs-Elysees might cause problems, namely Groenewegen and Nacer Bouhanni as they possess pure speed, although winning at the first attempt is a big ask. They don’t really offer great value even at bigger prices.

Recommendation
A Greipel
2pts 11-4 Paddy Power