England v New Zealand: World Cup betting preview, TV channel, team news and tips

World Cup final
Sky Sports Cricket & Main Event/Channel 4 & More4, 10.30am Sunday

The bright new era for England’s ODI team began with a thrilling series against New Zealand in 2015 and it could reach its zenith against the same opponents in the World Cup final at Lord’s.

England had been dumped out of the 2015 tournament at the group stage but in their next one-day innings they piled up 408-9 to set up a 210-run win over the Kiwis at Edgbaston.

They came into their home World Cup as the number-one team in the ICC’s ODI rankings and went off as 2-1 trophy favourites.

Those odds are down to 1-3 after a ruthless semi-final victory over Australia but Eoin Morgan will be taking nothing for granted against 11-4 shots New Zealand, who caused a major upset against India in the first semi-final.

Best bets

England had a wobble in the group stage and drifted to 9-2 before sealing their place in the last four by beating India and New Zealand (by 119 runs) in their last two games.

They looked back to their best in the semi-final romp over Australia as Chris Woakes and Jofra Archer reduced the Aussies to 14-3, Adil Rashid boosted his confidence with three wickets and Jason Roy took charge of the run-chase with a brilliant 85 off 65 balls.

Roy's ODI career has coincided with England’s resurgence – his maiden innings was in that 2015 win over New Zealand when he was dismissed for a golden duck by Trent Boult.

Their duel will be one of the decisive battles in the final but Roy has delivered more often than not recently and the 9-1 that he is named man of the match looks a big price.

He is only 3-1 to top-score for a powerful England batting unit but that is short enough. There is always an element of risk about his attacking approach in the Powerplay overs (and he was almost bowled first ball by Kiwi spinner Mitchell Santner in the group game) but if he comes off it could be spectacular.

A hamstring injury restricted the Surrey opener to six innings at this tournament but he has made an enormous impact, scoring 54, eight, 153, 66, 60 and 85 after an unbeaten 89 off 45 balls in the warm-up win over Afghanistan.

Roy’s other five one-day scores this year were 123 and two in the West Indies and 87, 76 and 114 against Pakistan in May and he produced some crowd-pleasing fireworks against Australia, clipping Mitchell Starc off his pads for six and hitting Steve Smith for three maximums in an over.

New Zealand’s bowlers have to be respected, however, and Boult in particular will be relishing a return to Lord’s.

The left-armer played his first ODI at HQ against Australia in the group stage, taking a hat-trick to finish with figures of 4-51.

He followed up by dismissing Joe Root and Jos Buttler in the defeat to England and Virat Kohli and the well-set Ravindra Jadeja in the semi-final win over India and he is worth backing to be New Zealand’s top wicket-taker in the final.

Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry have produced some wonderful spells in this tournament but the final venue should suit Boult better – left-armers have taken 39 of the 73 wickets to fall to bowlers in the four games at Lord’s.

Boult, the joint-leading wicket-taker at the 2015 World Cup, is a master of his craft, bowling in the first ten overs and at the death.

He is capable of ripping through opposing teams, taking 4-30 against the West Indies at Old Trafford and 5-21 against India in Hamilton in January, and he may well trouble the trophy favourites.

Roy, Root and Jonny Bairstow are hard to split at the head of the betting to be England’s top runscorer but Kane Williamson is a clear favourite for the Kiwis.

The poor form of New Zealand’s openers means the skipper usually comes in when his side are in trouble but he has responded superbly and despite batting on some tricky pitches he has racked up 548 runs in eight innings.

Odds of 9-4 about the ice-cool Kiwi captain top-scoring are well worth considering but their other key batsman, Ross Taylor, merits support.

Taylor (74) pipped Williamson (67) in the top-runscorer market against India this week and the 35-year-old’s runs line looks too low at 30.5 with Betway.

His scores at this tournament have been 82, 48, one, 69, three, 30, 28 (when he was needlessly run out against England) and 74 and his one-day record since an eye operation at the end of 2016 is outstanding.

Taylor averages 65 in 49 ODI innings since the start of 2017 and his four knocks in last year’s home series against England included 113 and 181 not out.

He made 40 in the 2015 World Cup final defeat to Australia, when Grant Elliott (83) was the only other Kiwi to pass 15, and England may struggle to keep him quiet at Lord’s.

Recommendations
J Roy to be man of the match
1pt 9-1 bet365, Hills, Sky Bet
T Boult top New Zealand wicket-taker
2pts 11-4 general
R Taylor to score over 30.5 runs
3pts 5-6 Betway

Advised on May 29
England to win World Cup
4pts 2-1 general

Team news

England
The hosts are likely to be unchanged with Moeen Ali, James Vince, Tom Curran and Liam Dawson missing out.

New Zealand
Fast bowler Lockie Ferguson returned from a hamstring injury for the semi-final win over India and bowled a full ten overs.

Venue

Eight of the last ten Lord’s ODIs have been won by the team batting first and the margins of victory at this World Cup were 49 runs, 64 runs, 86 runs and 94 runs.

England and New Zealand both lost to Australia at HQ and England have won five, lost ten and tied one of their last 16 matches at the venue.

Weather

Cloudy but dry for most of the game, 20C.

ENGLAND TEAM LOWDOWN

Strengths
Top-class performers in both sets of Powerplay overs – Jonny Bairstow and Jason Roy have put on four consecutive century stands for the first wicket and Chris Woakes and Jofra Archer are a formidable new-ball pair.

Weaknesses
England are still prone to the odd batting collapse on awkward pitches and they came up short in run-chases against Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia.

Key player
Roy’s form at the top of the order is superb – six fifties and three centuries in 11 ODIs in 2019 – but he also brings out the best in his opening partner Bairstow.

NEW ZEALAND TEAM LOWDOWN

Strengths
A seam-bowling attack who relish English conditions, as they proved in the semi-final win over India, and who have conceded 300 only once in their last 15 ODIs.

Weaknesses
The Kiwis’ struggling openers and lack of batting depth put pressure on Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor, who have scored 49 per cent of their runs at this tournament.

Key player
Skipper Williamson is a rock at number three, reaching 40 in seven of his eight innings – the exception was against England at the Riverside where he was unlucky to be run out at the non-striker’s end for 27.

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