New Graduate out to justify strong favouritism in Royal Hunt Cup

5.00 Royal Ascot
Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) | 1m str, 3yo+ | ITV/Sky

Only four market leaders have obliged in 59 runnings but New Graduate is a strong Newmarket fancy to become the first favourite since Forgotten Voice ten years ago to get his head in front.

At around 5-1, James Tate's unexposed type is also one of the shortest and there has been consistent cash for the four-year-old since his devastating comeback display at Ripon in April.

The son of New Approach was put up 15lb for his five-length dismissal of subsequent winner Kaeso but has worked like a high-class performer at Newmarket since then.

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to owner Saeed Manana, said: "He couldn't do any more than win as he did at Ripon and he's a very good horse who could be better than a handicapper."

One negative could be his draw in stall one as the last two winners have come from 22 and 26. Raymond added: "We can't do anything about the draw but we have a good jockey on board [Frankie Dettori] and it just depends where the pace is."

Osborne bullish about Raising Sand

Jamie Osborne won with Field Of Dream five years ago and is sounding pretty confident of bagging another success with Raising Sand, who will appreciate any rain that falls before post time.

The seven-year-old was seventh in the cavalry charge a year ago but that was on quick ground and his trainer is expecting a better showing given the forecast.

He said: "A lot of stars have to align to win a Hunt Cup. We've done it once and hit the crossbar a few times but this year it looks as if we've been dealt a decent hand. Raising Sand ran a great prep in the Victoria Cup and has come out of it well. A few weeks ago we were thinking we were wasting our time as he really needs cut in the ground to show his best but the weather has gone in our favour."

He added: "James Tate's horse could be a Group horse in a handicap but the others look pretty exposed and, while you can never be confident in a race like this, I think we go there with a very strong chance."

Key stats give clue for Godolphin runner

Godolphin have won this twice in the past decade, most recently with Portage in 2016, and are represented by Key Victory who makes his European return after four outings at the Dubai Carnival.

The son of Teofilo was sixth in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at the meeting a year ago and is back in trip.

Trainer Charlie Appleby said: “Key Victory has been quite a frustrating horse but he has been gelded since he ran in Dubai, which has helped, and we feel a big-field race like this might suit him. He's running off a decent weight [9st 5lb] and has some very good form from the start of last season. Things haven’t worked out but he's a half-brother to Blair House and the drop back to a mile should help.”

Settle For Bay out to turn back clock

Last year's winner Settle For Bay is back for another crack but no horse has won this twice since Master Vote way back in 1947-48.

The David Marnane-trained gelding will probably find the ground a bit different to when he accounted for seven of these, headed by Afaak, a year ago.

The trainer said: “He's in absolutely great nick. He's hopping and screaming and raring to go. I'm quite excited now after his Leopardstown run. I was thrilled with that. He has travelled over brilliantly and I genuinely couldn't be happier with him.”

Barron back with Kynren

David Barron is two-handed chiefly with the recent Victoria Cup second Kynren, who had a few of these including Raising Sand in arrears that day.

The five-year-old was fancied to run well in this last year but could muster only 21st, although he may have had excuses.

Barron said: "He flew the gates that day and saw too much daylight and also the ground was very fast, which didn't help. He won't mind any rain."

On his other representative Clon Coulis, he added: "She likes a strong pace and dropping in and we have the right man on board [Jamie Spencer].

What they say

Charlie Johnston, assistant to Mark Johnston, trainer of Cardsharp and Vale Of Kent
Cardsharp has not been campaigned to hide anything as he's mostly been competing in Pattern races. He's got top weight but he's a classy horse for sure. The less rain the better for him. Vale Of Kent has had a few little setbacks, so we've got him ready to run as well as he can here. The conditions suit him really well.

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Mitchum Swagger
He ran in it a few years ago and every drop of rain they get will aid his chance. He’s in good shape.

Bruce Raymond, racing manager to Abdullah Saeed Al Naboodah, owner of Mordin
He doesn't mind the soft, so if it rains it won't bother him. He's drawn high and I don't know if that's good or bad but it depends where the pace is.

Harry Dunlop. trainer of Robin Of Navan
It's difficult to know where to go with him as he's a Listed/Group 3 horse abroad but we're giving it a go. Ryan Moore gave us the idea of running him in this and he has good form at the track behind Zaaki and Barney Roy.

Amanda Perrett, trainer of Zhui Feng
He won the race two years ago but lost his way last season, since when he has been gelded and has had a wind op. We were delighted with his first run back at Goodwood but we don't want too much rain.

William Jarvis, trainer of Chief Ironside
He's a decent horse and ran well in a Group 3 at Epsom last time. I don't know if stall 28 is good or bad but at least we know where we are, although we wouldn't want too much rain for him.

Angus Gold, racing manager to Hamdan Al Maktoum, owner of Afaak
He was gelded in the winter when he was supposed to go to Dubai but he has taken an awful long time to recover from it. He finished second in the race last year but he may well improve for this comeback run.

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer of Circus Couture
He was third in the race last year and he's coming back in top shape after winning at Nottingham last time. He's a bit older and wiser at seven, so we're keeping the headgear on. He ran well behind a Sussex Stakes winner on soft last year, so won't mind a wet track."

William Haggas, trainer of Seniority
He desperately doesn't want rain as he's not good on soft ground. He ran very well at Epsom and he has come forward from that. It was a bit of a rush job to run him in the Hunt Cup last year as we needed to send him to Chelmsford the week before to squeeze him into the field. Ryan Moore's agent rang me when he felt he could be available, which was very good news for us. He's really well.

Martyn Meade, trainer of Chilean
He's a different horse on the soft, so we're hoping the forecast is correct.

Andrew Balding, trainer of Zwayyan
He's in good form and on his Wolverhampton win he'd certainly be in the mix.

John Gosden. trainer of Stylehunter
He's just snuck in at the bottom and is entitled to come on for his comeback but he'll need to.

Spotlight Verdict

Having dodged the rain for several days, Ascot was not so lucky yesterday and it may be the same today. Soft ground, or even good to soft, would be a major help in narrowing down the host of major candidates and can see What's The Story and Raising Sand to the fore, with What's The Story (last year's fourth) holding a serious each-way chance even if the rain has stayed away. New Graduate is a possible blot on the handicap but he's inexperienced, the handicapper has put him up 15lb and it remains to be seen whether stall 1 is the place to be. Chief Ironside would be the selection on good ground but, along with Seniority and 2018 Hunt Cup winner Settle For Bay, he has much more to prove if it has rained. Robin Of Navan is very interesting and it is not hard to envisage Mordin, or of course Kynren, being on the premises.

Paddy Power are paying a huge 6 places instead of 4 on this race. Bet on the Racing Post here