Should Saxon Warrior really be favourite for the Irish Derby?

Frankie Dettori is confused. The world's most famous jockey cannot see why Saxon Warrior, fourth in the Epsom Derby, is odds-on to win Saturday's Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, in which his chief opponent is Dee Ex Bee, who finished two places and three lengths in front of him at Epsom.

"I don't understand why Dee Ex Bee is not favourite as he's the one I fear most," said Dettori, who is set to ride Knight To Behold in the Curragh Classic.

"He's proved at Epsom he stays and he's already beaten Saxon Warrior, so I can't believe how the bookmakers have priced it up. It doesn't make sense to me."

Saxon Warrior was a Classic winner in the 2,000 Guineas - but not the DerbyCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

It doesn't make sense to some other people. Should Saxon Warrior be a 4-6 shot? Is he that likely to master 7-2 shot Dee Ex Bee? Here are some points to ponder.

The former Ballydoyle insider

Mick Kinane won the Irish Derby twice, both times as stable jockey to Saxon Warrior's trainer Aidan O'Brien. His assessment of the big-race betting echoes that of Dettori.

Mick Kinane believes Saxon Warrior is too short in the Irish Derby bettingCredit: Edward Whitaker

"I don't see the value in Saxon Warrior's price relative to Mark Johnston's horse," says Kinane. "There was a lot of ground between them last time. Saxon Warrior was soundly beaten and he started to become uncomfortable a long way out. It may be he totally failed to act on the track and as a big horse he became claustrophobic, but we won't really know until the Irish Derby.

"He didn't improve for going up in trip from the Guineas, whereas Masar did. He actually seemed to regress for the extra distance."

What do the figures tell us?

Racing Post Ratings expert Sam Walker says: "Saxon Warrior tops the Irish Derby RPRs with a mark of 123 for his 2,000 Guineas success, but the question with him is whether he can bounce back from his Derby defeat.

"There were extenuating circumstances at Epsom, where he didn't get the clearest run and didn't appear to handle the camber, but he still didn't look the best horse on the day.

"The Derby may prove to be a blip, as with Dubai Millennium, who was never beaten before or after, but similarly it might have exposed his limitations. It's too soon to say either way, but Saturday should give us a good steer on his future in terms of ideal distance and level of expectations."

In the bookmakers' defence

Bet365 have been keen to avoid taking bets on Saxon Warrior and at the start of the week offered just 1-2.

"We feel Saxon Warrior was never comfortable at Epsom and is far better judged on his 2,000 Guineas win, when Masar was back in third," explains Pat Cooney.

"I think it’s hard to take the form of just one race, albeit the Derby, literally. It’s a similar scenario to the ‘who should be favourite for the St James’s Palace Stakes?' debate, when compilers made the unexposed Without Parole favourite over Guineas runner-up Tip Two Win.

"Aidan O’Brien was also quick to nominate the Irish Derby as Saxon Warrior’s next race. Given he’s won this 12 times we're happy to be in his corner."

Will team tactics play a part?

Charlie Johnston, assistant to his father Mark, Dee Ex Bee's trainer, believes the presence of three stablemates in the field is helpful to Saxon Warrior. Kinane concurs.

"Having four runners gives them a tactical advantage," says Kinane.

"With numbers they can plan the race to suit themselves and to their advantage. If they want a slow-run race they could stack the field up and try to favour a horse with speed, Saxon Warrior, against a Leger-type horse in Dee Ex Bee."

Dee Ex Bee and Silvestre de Sousa are drawn one in the Irish DerbyCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Kinane also believes Dee Ex Bee being drawn nearest the rail in stall one adds a potentially fascinating extra dimension.

"Dee Ex Bee is on the inside, which means if the Ballydoyle horses get by him and around him they can stack him up," he says.

"You do a lot of turning on the Derby track at the Curragh. It's like a horseshoe and it's not easy to get out from the inside. Stall one could be very good for Dee Ex Bee or very bad."

The history lesson

Epsom form normally holds up in the Irish Derby – but certainly not always.

Saxon Warrior backers will be encouraged by last year's result when the O'Brien-trained Capri, who had been sixth in the Derby, beat the horses who finished first and third at Epsom.

Ruler Of The World, winner of the Derby in 2013, and 2011 runner-up Carlton House, were both turned over at the Curragh by horses they had bettered at Epsom, while in 2008 Tartan Bearer finished fourth in the Irish Derby. The first, second and third had all finished behind him in the Derby.

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