Performance metrics: how sectionals can help predict the Ayr Gold Cup pace

3.50 Ayr
William Hill Ayr Gold Cup | 6f | 3yo+ | ITV4/RUK

The Ayr Gold Cup is rare in that its draw is an interactive process: connections can choose where their horse goes, so long as the stall is not already taken.

Louie De Palma, a front-runner, came out second in Thursday's draw ceremony and was put in stall ten. Quite a few others were soon placed in the surrounding stalls, in a bid to sit near the pace.

The supposition that being drawn near the pace is an advantage bears out in the general case. More races start slowly and finish quickly than the other way round, meaning that those prominent early on are often better positioned to run close to the desired even pace.

Heat map shows expected pace in the Ayr Gold Cup

Whether a horse races prominently or is held up is largely influenced by the jockey, who chooses how hard to ride early on. But it is also related to the horse's natural capacity for early speed. A three-mile chaser could not take them along in the Ayr Gold Cup, no matter how strong his rider's urgings.

Using Total Performance Data's sectional timings, a horse's speed in the opening stages of a race can be inspected. This can help predict where the early pace will lie, subject to riding instructions.

Looking at the attached graphic, derived from the speeds recorded in the opening furlong by horses in the Ayr Gold Cup, it can be seen that the pace has potentially congregated quite well in Louie De Palma's neighbourhood, but that the instigator may not actually be the main driver. The overall leader could be Hey Jonesy, two stalls away in 8, who not only has the fastest opening-furlong speed (adjusted for ground conditions), but is also set to wear a visor for the first time.

The horse right in between Hey Jonesy and Louie De Palma is Gulliver. He got none of the breaks when third at the Curragh last time, but if the pace in the Ayr Gold Cup pans out as the data implies, he could hardly be in a more opportune spot this time.

All data courtesy of Total Performance Data, whose tracking covers more than 20 courses in the UK and North America