'We've aimed him at this all season' - distance questions offer hope to unheralded sorts in the Red Rum

A lot of the contrast between Cheltenham and Aintree is pitched as a difference in nature between the tracks. That is truer in some races than others. The space between the Bowl and Gold Cup, say, is more marked than the Red Rum and its sister race at Cheltenham, the Grand Annual.

The Racing Post standard time for the Red Rum's course and distance is just two seconds less than that of the Grand Annual. So the Red Rum is a lesser test, but you would need a stopwatch to spot it.

Further, the Red Rum is not a race for pure two-milers. Two-thirds of winners in the past decade had run over at least two-and-a-quarter miles that season. Most of those had run over at least two and a half.

The market has landed on the principals from the Grand Annual for the most part. Of those, Saint Roi could be the most interesting. He came from much further back than Unexpected Party and Path D'oroux at Cheltenham. Granted, it was partly his own fault. He belted four out as he was starting to creep forwards.

The distance question brings in a few less heralded sorts. Heltenham has excellent form at flat tracks over 2m4f and on deep ground. Triple Trade stays further but could be taken as a two-miler who hits the line hard.

Attention is also drawn to Black Gerry at big prices. His best runs are either at sharp tracks over further, or given a stiff test around two miles. Almost all have been in the spring, many on soft ground.

After a poor season, Black Gerry came back to form when second in a valuable event at Plumpton last time. He remains well handicapped on his most recent win, almost exactly a year ago. In a race lacking obviously progressive sorts and in which few form angles have been missed, his is the price that looks most chancy.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

RP Recommends: how to bet on the Red Rum Handicap Chase

By Tom Park, audience editor

Place terms are your friend for this fiercely competitive affair and Sky Bet are the standout with five places on offer. With Dan Skelton aiming to land the trainers' championship, this valuable handicap chase would be a huge pot for him and I think Unexpected Party has a lot in his favour to follow up his Grand Annual win off an 8lb higher mark. He went off 5-1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup off his current mark (146) and he won with plenty in hand at the festival, and he should love the soft conditions. I can't see him out of the first five.

• RP Recommends: Sky Bet

What they say

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Dancing On My Own
He loved the place last year and, while the ground isn't necessarily ideal for him, we're going to give it a go and see how he gets on. He seems very well.

Willie Mullins, trainer of Saint Roi
I was a little disappointed with him at Cheltenham but, if he can find a bit of improvement, he's in the mix and he has a good course form, which could see him finishing in the first five or six, hopefully.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Unexpected Party and Heltenham
Unexpected Party seems in great form and the trip and ground should be fine, although I wouldn't want it to go heavy all over for him. We've dropped Heltenham in trip with the ground so soft. His last three runs have been really good and he appears to be in the same form at home.

Oliver Greenall, joint trainer of Homme Public
We'd have liked nicer ground as most of his form is with better going, but we've aimed him at this all season. We'll still take our chance on the softer ground as he went through it when winning at Doncaster last time and think he has a nice chance.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of Triple Trade
He's in good form and I think he'll like the ground as he's handled it well before. He didn't seem to run his race at Cheltenham and the handicapper may have a line on him, but he deserves to take his chance on his best form and I hope he can run into a place.

Willy Twiston-Davies, assistant trainer to Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Guy We're looking forward to running him. He's had a very good season and is really consistent. He's gone up a fair bit in the handicap for his win at Hereford last time so we're taking 7lb off with James Turner, who's had a very good season in his own right.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Sans Bruit
He's had plenty of experience in France over hurdles and fences. He came back to form nicely when second at Chepstow last week over two miles on soft ground. The track should suit and hopefully they go fast for him. Unless last week was a fluke, then he's got a good each-way chance.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Read our Thursday previews

1.45 Aintree: 'There are no negatives' - Dan Skelton confident of big run from Grey Dawning in Cheltenham rematch with Ginny's Destiny 

2.20 Aintree: Sir Gino 'will have to stand up and be counted' says Nicky Henderson - can he put an end to the yard's poor run? 

2.55 Aintree: Shishkin and Gerri Colombe clash in epic Aintree Bowl - plus Emmet Mullins is seeing 'very good signs' from novice Corbetts Cross 

3.30 Aintree: Irish stars dominate the market but both have questions to answer in intriguing Aintree Hurdle 

4.05 Aintree: 'Going back in trip is interesting' - analysis and key quotes for first look at National course in Foxhunters' Chase 

Four Grade 1s kickstart Aintree's Grand National meeting in style - and it's the moment of truth for Nicky Henderson 

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