'I'm sure he has plenty more to give' - leading trainers on their Golden Mile contenders

The effect of the draw is overplayed when it comes to explaining the outcome of many races but that definitely isn’t the case in this handicap. It’s quite fair to argue that it is the biggest draw race in the calendar and that’s an easy case to make when looking at the recent results.

The last ten runnings have been won by horses coming from stalls 13, five, nine, one, three, three, three, two, five and two and that is an incredible record for such a competitive contest.

The low-draw advantage over seven furlongs and a mile is exaggerated on the Friday and Saturday of this meeting because of the change in course configuration. There is a false rail and a cutaway in operation on the first three days, but that disappears for the last two.

Therefore, not only do horses drawn on the inside go the shortest way around, but they also tend to be on the freshest ground. That combination gives them a big advantage.

If you look more closely at the results by concentrating on first-four finishers since 2010 and compare the impact values of those in the lowest five stalls with the rest of the field, it’s clear that stalls one to five have hit the frame at a rate nearly one and a half times (IV 1.45) random chance. In contrast, stalls six to 20 are under the IV par of 1 with a 0.88 figure.

The lowest five stalls are evidently punching well above their weight in terms of wins and places and supporters of Lattam probably couldn’t believe their luck when he got stall three.

Everything has come right for the son of Lope De Vega because he loves testing ground and the rain has turned conditions in his favour. Both of his wins this year came in last-gasp fashion, but he hasn’t gone up much in the weights as a result and could still be well treated.

Richard Hannon snr won this race in 2013 with Wentworth and it went to the Hannon yard again in 2019 with Beat The Bon, so there will be plenty looking to Tacarib Bay in stall four. Two of his three highest Racing Post Ratings on turf are on going with soft in the description.

Revich (one), Sonny Liston (two) and The Gatekeeper (five) are the other three in the ideal stalls and Revich may be best of them racing off a mark 1lb higher than when third last year.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

O'Meara mob-handed to enhance Golden Mile record

Punters looking for the winner of this competitive mile handicap haven't needed to look much further than David O'Meara in recent years.

The trainer saddled the winner in 2020 and 2022, while he also had the second and third the year in between, and he throws six darts this time.

Rhoscolyn landed the closing 7f handicap on Wednesday on ground described officially as heavy after sustained rainfall throughout the day, and he is out again quickly in a bid to go one better in this contest than he managed two years ago.

O'Meara said: "It was good to see him win on Wednesday, and he's happy and well, he's eaten up and the guys are keen to see him out again. He was second in this race a couple of years ago and we're hopeful he'll go well again.

"The drying ground won't bother him, but I can't really see it being anything other than soft after the amount of rain they had on Wednesday."

Blue For You: bidding to step up on last year's second placeCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Blue For You is his most fancied runner in the market after running out an impressive winner of a mile handicap on John Smith's Cup day at York. He was runner-up in this last year behind stablemate Orbaan, who prepared for this assignment with a good run in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes last week. The trainer is also represented by Bopedro, Darkness and Escobar.

O'Meara said: "Blue For You is a very good horse. He ran well in second last year and, although I'm not sure if he wants the softer conditions, he's in very good form and I'm sure he has plenty more to give.

"Orbaan, like a lot of my horses, is drawn a lot wider than last year, but that might be a help rather than a hindrance as the rail may not be the place to be on the soft ground. He ran a lovely race in the International last time and I'm sure he'll be competitive – he's gone on any ground in the past.

"Bopedro didn't run as well as I'd hoped at Ascot last time and he was unlucky not to win at Newmarket the time before as he got into trouble and only got out late. He's tough and I'd like to think he'll make the first four.

"Darkness finally got off the mark for me last time at Newmarket under Neil Callan, but I'd be worried about the ground as he looks better on faster.

"Escobar isn't getting any younger, but he's a classy horse on his day and has run some nice races at Goodwood."

What they say

Tom Marquand, rider of Lattam
I'm looking forward to riding him. It's obviously pretty soft ground, which he's already won on in Ireland. It's going to be a busy race, which is what he wants, but you need lots of luck in those big fields round here and I'll try to deliver him late.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Awaal
He has run three huge races in big handicaps and we're now taking 3lb off him by using Harry Davies's claim. The draw [in stall 12] isn't a problem as it will allow him to be tucked in.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Tacarib Bay
I was absolutely delighted with him at Ascot on Saturday where he 'won' his race on the far side and looked like winning outright a furlong from home but just got tired having been off since April. The more rain the better and I think he has outstanding claims in his current form.

Tacarib Bay: "outstanding claims" according to trainer Richard Hannon Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Roger Varian, trainer of Perotto
He's in good form. He'll enjoy Goodwood as he's run well round there before. He's got a wide draw to overcome, but he's come out of Sandown really well and we're hopeful of another good run. He went up 4lb for his last win and runs under a 3lb penalty, so you'd be hopeful there was still some juice in his mark. He's tough and genuine, and he's used to the hustle and bustle of these big handicaps.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Racingbreaks Ryder
We all know how hard the Golden Mile is to win, but I'd like to think he has the ability to be involved. He'll like the softish ground and the draw in seven is fine, so I'm hopeful he'll run a big race. We'll give it a good go.
Reporting by Harry Wilson

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