'I can't believe his price' - quotes and analysis for intriguing novice chase

Sunday: 1.20 Kempton
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Six-year-olds priced between 7-2 and 7-1 have won the last seven runnings of this novice handicap chase. Is it possible to read too much into a trend? Perhaps so, in this case.

Those who go by coincidental occurrences might want to focus on Mister Coffey, who fits the trend for trainer Nicky Henderson, although he could be considered the second-string on jockey bookings with regular rider Nico de Boinville opting to partner favourite Bothwell Bridge.

Mister Coffey has long been considered good enough to compete at Graded level but has disappointed since winning on his handicap hurdling debut in November last year. More of a concern is his fencing technique – he doesn't arch his back and therefore can appear awkward.

In contrast, Bothwell Bridge's main asset is his jumping. Already a three-time winner and having scored in his one start over fences, this six-year-old remains open to plenty of improvement and bolted up at Sandown this month. He might be better at three miles in time but has proved he has the speed to handle this trip.

One runner certainly not lacking acceleration and a high cruising speed is Danny Kirwan, who, like Bothwell Bridge, will be making his second start after wind surgery. A bumper winner at this track in 2018, Danny Kirwan performed admirably in a red-hot Cheltenham contest in October and should be well suited by the return to a right-handed track.

Killer Kane, Your Darling and Sebastopol are all looking to make amends after being beaten favourites on their most recent outing. Sebastopol is extremely frustrating, having been runner-up seven times, but boasts an abundance of talent. If he gets it right, he might be the value in a competitive contest.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

What they say

Tom Lacey, trainer of Sebastopol
I couldn’t believe his price when I saw 9-1. He was going to win until he fell at the last at Kempton last month. He’s the best horse in the race and the track suits him. He has a fantastic chance.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Mister Coffey and Bothwell Bridge
Both horses are in good form and both want plenty of rain. There's some forecast on Christmas Day, but I’m not sure how much we’ll get. It really can’t be soft enough for Bothwell Bridge. He jumps very well. It’s just a shame that they’ve got to take each other on.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Danny Kirwan
I'm very happy with him. When he ran well at Cheltenham earlier in the season it was obvious he had to go right-handed, so we kept him for this race.

Gary Moore, trainer of Iconic Muddle
He’s not had a run since May but has been working well at home. Any rain would be much appreciated. The form of his hurdles second to Flight Deck at Newbury has worked out well. He’s got a decent each-way chance in what looks quite a competitive race.

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Killer Kane's trainer Colin Tizzard
He ran well up at Carlisle but he was disappointing at Exeter, he ran too keen and the fences were dolled off. Hopefully he'll settle a bit better this time, he's at the bottom of the weights and it's an open race so he's got a chance.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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