Is the Christmas Hurdle the race it was and what will it tell us for Cheltenham?

Sunday: 2.30 KemptonLadbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

The Christmas Hurdle comes only behind the Champion Hurdle in terms of the crown jewels in the two-mile British hurdling division, but the quality on show in Kempton’s Grade 1 has deteriorated significantly in recent years in comparison to Cheltenham's showpiece.

The Champion Hurdle has always been the stronger race and, on average, it took a 5lb better horse to win at Cheltenham than Kempton in the last ten years on Racing Post Ratings.

However, the gap between the quality of horse needed to win each race has recently widened and we can see that by comparing the rolling averages of the last ten winners of each contest.

The Christmas Hurdle was a particularly strong race in the early part of the last decade, with the rolling average of the winners from 2011 to 2015 no lower than 164 and peaking at 168.

However, in the last five years the rolling average of each winner dipped significantly to be consistently in the region of 162-164. Only last season did it reach a slightly higher 165.

It's clear from these figures that the standard of Christmas Hurdle winners dropped between 2lb-3lb from the start of the last ten years to the end, but that didn't happen at Cheltenham.

The rolling average for Champion Hurdle winners from 2012-2016 was between 172-170 and, after dipping to 168-169 in the following three years, it has now climbed back to 172.

So, while the Christmas Hurdle is now generally a 2lb-3lb worse race than it was ten years ago, the Champion Hurdle has stayed the same and those figures suggest this season's Kempton race is less likely to have a bearing on the Cheltenham winner than ever before.

A quick look at this year's Christmas Hurdle field backs up that impression. The highest last-time-out RPRs on offer come from Epatante and Not So Sleepy, who finished in a dead-heat for equal figures of 160, including Epatante's 7lb female allowance, at Newcastle a month ago.

That is 13lb shy of Honeysuckle's Champion Hurdle-winning figure and it's hard to believe Epantante or Not So Sleepy are capable of improving. If anything, they have likely peaked.

Soaring Glory and Tritonic, who have won two of Ascot's biggest handicap hurdles this season, are the potential improvers in the race and Soaring Glory must find only 8lb to match Epatante and Not So Sleepy's Newcastle form. Tritonic is 10lb shy but is at least in hailing distance, which is more than can be said for Glory And Fortune, who is 25lb off.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Star mare Epatante in top shape

Nicky Henderson "couldn't be happier" with Epatante as the 2020 Champion Hurdle winner renews her rivalry with Not So Sleepy a month after the pair dead-heated for Newcastle's Fighting Fifth Hurdle on the same terms.

Epatante, winner of seven of her 11 races over hurdles, was making her seasonal reappearance at Newcastle while Not So Sleepy enjoyed the benefit of a Doncaster spin on the Flat the previous month.

Nico de Boinville comes in for the ride on Epatante since regular partner Aidan Coleman is suspended.

'Everything has gone very smoothly' for Epatante in the run up to Boxing DayCredit: John Grossick

Henderson said: "Everything has gone very smoothly since Newcastle. I was very happy with her that day. The most pleasing thing to take from the race was the way she travelled and jumped.

"Her hallmark is her jumping – you won't see anything quicker over a hurdle or make a better shape when she is on song – and that was missing when she was beaten at Kempton last year.

"Nico [de Boinville] rides her for the first time in a race but he's been bonding well with her at home."

What they say

Tom Lacey, trainer of Glory And Fortune
He has an awful lot to find. He's a talented horse but we're making up the numbers really.

Hughie Morrison, trainer of Not So Sleepy
I think the ground at Kempton is going to be too quick for him. We want plenty of rain but the forecast doesn't give me hope that we'll get enough of it. His best form is on very soft ground but we're not frightened of getting beat. He's run 54 times during his career and won nine – he's a star. Not So Sleepy is full of himself and in really good form. We go there hopeful but in the knowledge he's at his very best on much softer ground.

Jonjo O'Neill Jr, rider of Soaring Glory
It's another step up in grade. I don't think he was quite at his best the last day, he's better than that. He has to improve but that race is working out, the winner was second at Ascot and a sharp track and good ground should suit him.

Alan King, trainer of Tritonic
Tritonic put up a great performance at Ascot and showed how much he'd been sharpened up mentally by his run at Cheltenham. This race hadn't been the plan but when we saw there were only five entries we popped him in. He went up 6lb for that win so that puts him in contention with one or two of them. He was always going strongly and actually pricked his ears between the last two flights so you'd hope there's a bit more in the tank – he certainly picked up well when Adrian Heskin went for him.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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