'He's got a big chance' - who fancies their runner in a red-hot County Hurdle?

Friday: 2.10 CheltenhamMcCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) | 2m1f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

We're on to the last day of the festival and punters need to be flexible.

It's time to put all those preconceived notions into the dustbin and take a fresh look at what has already happened on the track over the preceding three days. We are now better informed about which lines of form are right than we were at the start of the week and can bet accordingly.

Colonel Mustard is a good example. His form now looks better than on Tuesday because on his last run he was third in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life, and was 41 lengths clear of the rest.

Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life filled the first two places in theBallymore on Wednesday and the handicapper cannot react to that form. We punters can, though.

West Cork is another whose form has received a few boosts. When he won the Greatwood on the Old course in October he had Wednesday's Coral Cup fourth Camprond more than six lengths back in fourth. And the seventh? That was Tuesday's mares' winner Marie's Rock.

Paul Nicholls has saddled most County Hurdle winners (four) among British trainers, but his old apprentice Dan Skelton has already had three, all of which came in the last six years and all were returning from quite significant absences.

Superb Story defied a 124-day break in 2016, Mohaayed was off for 80 days before he won in 2018 and in 2019 it was the turn of Ch'tibello to score after a 97-day absence.

West Cork has been off the track for 90 days since his fifth in the Betfair Trophy at Ascot before Christmas and defied a mammoth 631-day absence when winning here in November.

Skelton also runs Stepney Causeway, who was second to Tuesday's Arkle winner Edwardstone over fences at Warwick in November but hasn’t built on that run since. Cheekpieces go on, but Skelton is just 7-59 with runners first time in that aid since 2019.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

State your case

Willie Mullins is out to improve yet another Cheltenham Festival record at the end of a week when he has once again been the man to beat.

The multiple Irish champion is seeking a sixth win in the McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle, which would put him two clear of Paul Nicholls as the most successful trainer in the history of this race.

And when final declarations were made his State Man was bookmakers' favourite to emulate Thousand Stars, Final Approach, Wicklow Brave, Arctic Fire and Saint Roi in a contest the yard won for the first time only a dozen years ago.

Mullins had been thinking of running the Limerick maiden hurdle winner in Wednesday's Grade 1 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, which he won with Sir Gerhard, and that suggests the five-year-old could be well treated with an initial BHA mark of just 141.

State Man's rider Paul Townend said: "He lacks experience but was going very well when he fell in the maiden at Leopardstown. It didn’t seem to leave any effect on him. He jumped brilliantly in Limerick afterwards. It was a much lesser race obviously but he got the experience and he has schooled well since. If he can overcome the inexperience, I think he has a great chance."

The trainer also runs Grade 1-placed novice Farout and Listed-winning mare Dysart Diamond.

His team is completed by last year's Triumph Hurdle sixth Tax For Max and last month's Fairyhouse novice winner Tempo Chapter Two.

Aiming to put a Cork in it

If there is one man taking the fight to Willie Mullins in the County Hurdle it is Dan Skelton.

All bar one of his four Cheltenham Festival winners has come in this race, which he's won three times in the last six years.

And he has another strong team assembled this time, headed by brother Harry's mount West Cork, who won the Greatwood Hurdle here last November and has been kept fresh since finishing fifth at Ascot the following month.

West Cork: won the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last NovemberCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Bridget Andrews rides Morebattle Hurdle third Faivoir while brother Jack is on Stepney Causeway, who switches back from fences.

"This has been the plan for West Cork since Ascot," Dan Skelton said. "He overreached there, so we had to give him time, but freshness isn't an issue as he won after 600-odd days off at the November meeting. He has a nice mark and I've always felt he could go to the next grade. He's got a big chance.

"Faivoir is running very well over hurdles at the moment and I hope he'll be battling out for some prize-money. I hope the weather is dry for Stepney Causeway. If he got on nice ground he could outrun his odds."

Chasing a jackpot

Success will be worth more to Cormier than any other runner, thanks to some Scottish generosity.

He won the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso earlier this month, which puts him in line for a £100,000 payout if he follows up at the Cheltenham Festival.

Cormier (red cap): put himself in line for a possible £100,000 by winning at KelsoCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

The Shunter switched to fences to earn the bonus last year but Cormier sticks to hurdles – with a 5lb penalty – as he returns to a course where he won in good style on trials day in January.

Trainer Brian Ellison, seeking his first festival victory after several near-misses, said: "He's in good fettle and he's come out of the race well.

"He's 5lb higher and this is a tough race but he's tough, he's won round there and the rain was a blessing; he'll love the ground."

What they say

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Call Me Lyreen, Felix Desjy, Top Bandit and Eclair De Beaufeu
Top Bandit is a nice horse and progressed through the first part of the season. We've kept him fresh for this and I think he will be suited by the test a County Hurdle presents. He's going to need to step up, though. It was great to see Call Me Lyreen back to form at Leopardstown but he's got an awful lot of weight. Eclair De Beaufeu has run well in two runnings of this race and a return to the County could spark a revival in him. Felix Desjy is obviously not showing the form he is capable of but he still works like a good horse.

Gavin Cromwell, trainer of My Mate Mozzie
Hopefully, the ground dries out. The better the ground, the better his chance. It's his first run in a handicap and he has a big weight. We're claiming the 5lb off but it's a big ask for a novice.

Alan King, trainer of Tritonic
He worked well with Edwardstone last weekend and we'll go back to riding him more patiently this time. A strongly run two miles on a stiff track is ideal for him and, while he may not be handicapped to win a race like this, I still think he could run really well.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of First Street and Broomfield Burg
They both ran in the Betfair Hurdle last time. I think this is probably more competitive but they'll be all right on the ground.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of I Like To Move It
He's done absolutely nothing wrong this season.

Lorna Fowler, trainer of Colonel Mustard
He's settled in lovely and he thinks he belongs at Cheltenham. He'd several entries and it was never a given that we'd come here as Aintree was an option, but when we saw what weight he got for the County, it looked a good route to go down. He seems to be in great form and I think he could run a huge race. You need luck in a race like a County Hurdle and, if things go our way and he stays out of trouble, he could run a big one.

Peter Fahey, trainer of Suprise Package
He came out of the Imperial Cup in great form. He's been eating and drinking and everything is brilliant with him. It's a gamble running him back this quick but we're going to give it a go and see what happens.
Reporting by David Carr

Friday's Cheltenham Festival previews:

1.30 Cheltenham: who will come out on top between star juveniles Pied Piper and Vauban?

2.50 Cheltenham: 'He's got the class and the form' - leading Albert Bartlett quotes and insight

3.30 Cheltenham: leading trainers on their chances of winning the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup

4.10 Cheltenham: which trainer is taking the best horse he's ever brought to Cheltenham?

4.50 Cheltenham: Willie Mullins once again has good reason to be hopeful about the mares' chase

5.30 Cheltenham: 'He'll run a huge race' - is there a dark horse lurking in the Martin Pipe?

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