Could Haggas have another Royal Ascot contender in Commonwealth Cup trial?

BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed) | 6f | 3yo | ITV/RTV

Group 3 races sometimes attract Listed-quality fields at best but the Listed Carnarvon Stakes regularly goes the other way.

Last season's scorer Creative Force subsequently bagged a Group 1 at Ascot and Happy Romance, who was fifth, later came close to landing a pair of top-level prizes. Others beaten in the Carnarvon in recent seasons include Group 1 winners Oxted, Eqtidaar, Jungle Cat and Lethal Force.

Six of the nine in this season’s running boast Commonwealth Cup entries next month and Hierarchy is the shortest-priced in the Royal Ascot betting on most books. However, he is considered third most likely to oblige at Newbury according to the early market.

A logical reason for this is Ehraz arguably shaped better than Hierarchy did when the pair ran second and third to Go Bears Go in the Pavilion Stakes in April.

Ehraz cruised into contention like the best horse in the race at Ascot, but found little off the bridle. If the run was simply needed, he is a threat to all.

Surprisingly, for a race of this nature, there is no guaranteed pace angle. Anything other than a strong end-to-end gallop would hinder the prospects of favourite Tiber Flow.

By Caravaggio and out of a top-class miler, the William Haggas-trained three-year-old is a strong stayer over 6f and twice a winner over 7f.

Tiber Flow has the most progressive profile in the field and only saw the track for the first time in December, but seemed to be crying out for further than 6f last time, eating up the ground late on to claim a short-head second to El Caballo on All-Weather Championships finals day.

With a lack of front-running opposition, Tiber Flow looks a favourite to oppose as this test might not suit for his first turf run.

Cadamosto is an interesting alternative for Aidan O'Brien at bigger odds. The trainer's British runners merit close inspection at any time of year but particularly this one, with the stable capturing so many of the recent Classic Trials.

Aidan O'Brien: Ballydoyle trainer saddles Cadamosto in the Carnarvon StakesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

However, O'Brien's Midas touch with middle-distance colts and fillies seldom extends to sprinters and King Of Bavaria was a well-beaten joint-favourite at York over 5f on Thursday.

Cadamosto finished one place ahead of King Of Bavaria, who was admittedly inconvenienced by his track position on the Knavesmire, on his return at Navan and was Ryan Moore's choice of three Ballydoyle representatives that day.

Stablemate New York City won there but was race-fit, and Cadamosto should improve for his first start since June. The assumption is a wellness issue contributed towards the premature end to his juvenile campaign.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Commonwealth calling for Tiber Flow?

William Haggas hopes the Carnarvon Stakes will be a crucial pointer in deciding whether the progressive Tiber Flow will be able to contest the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month.

The son of Caravaggio saw his unbeaten record come to an end when a narrow runner-up in All-Weather Championships finals day last month, having won his previous three starts on the all-weather over the winter.

The three-year-old makes his first start on turf in the 6f Listed contest and a winning performance could see him take his chance in either the 6f Group 1 or the Jersey Stakes at the royal meeting.

Haggas said: "He's a nice horse. He might be better at seven furlongs but I put him in the Commonwealth Cup and we'd like to know if he's quick enough to go there. Otherwise it will be the Jersey Stakes. This race will answer the question, hopefully."

What they say

Richard Hannon, trainer of Ehraz
It was a good run at Ascot last time but he shaped as if he didn't finish his race. He's now match-fit and should run very well. He has a high cruising speed and is very talented on his day. This should be a stepping-stone to Royal Ascot.

Clive Cox, trainer of Mohi
He has a bit to find with some of them on ratings but the recent rain they've had at Newbury should suit him and hopefully that should bring him more into the equation.

Clive Cox: Mohi trainer feels recent rain with help his horseCredit: Edward Whitaker

James Horton, trainer of Sam Maximus
It's taken him a bit of time to come into his coat and himself this spring but he's ready to start. We think this is a good starting point. We are hopeful and feel his work has improved over the last month. I'm not sure he is 100 per cent ready at the moment but we need to get him out. We need to figure out if he's a five or six-furlong horse and where we can go with him for the rest of the season.

Joseph Tuite, trainer of The Organiser
I'm very happy with him and he's wintered well. This was always the plan for his starting point and we'll see where we go after it. He's been gelded as his rev counter went up and we want to help him relax a bit more.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Read Saturday's race previews:

2.25 Newmarket: 'I think he's still well in' – who fancies their chances in a big-field sprint?

2.45 Newbury: trainers on their London Gold Cup hopes, including one with 'upside in his mark'

3.00 Newmarket: Harry Davies out to land more success on the Rowley Mile with Shine So Bright

3.20 Newbury: 'It's a big ask but he's in great nick' – can anyone beat Baaeed?

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