Can Trueshan overcome a tricky draw and big weight to become a Plate legend?

Saturday: 3.30 Newcastle
JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) | 2m½f | 3yo+ | ITV/Sky

If there is one big race in the calendar that has changed beyond recognition over the last decade it is the Northumberland Plate. The Pitmen's Derby was once the crown jewel of the turf season in the north, but now it is the outstanding race of the summer on the all-weather.

It's not just the surface that has changed. The Plate was once a race in which a low draw would be favoured and anything higher than 15 could be considered a coffin box. That was on turf, though, and since the switch to Tapeta statistics have been switched entirely.

Take a look at the accompanying graphic, which shows the percentage of rivals beaten (%RB) by stall in runnings of the Northumberland Plate and the consolation Vase since they were contested on Tapeta in 2016. Stalls one, two and five are evidently now the coffin boxes.

Runners from those three stalls have beaten between just 33 to 35 per cent of their rivals on average in that time and that is less than half of those than the best stall (17) has defeated.

The three best performing stalls are 17, 18 and 19, which are beating an average of 65.68 per cent of rivals between them, and the last two winners of the Plate were drawn in number 17.

Onesmoothoperator is the horse who will attempt to give stall 17 a hat-trick, and he recorded a career-best Racing Post Rating at York two weeks ago, despite coming home last of six.

Onesmoothoperator was competing off level weights with horses rated upwards of 10lb his superior and finished only four and a quarter lengths behind. It's possible to argue he was flattered, but his previous form at this course has also been advertised in much higher grades.

Before York, Onesmoothoperator twice came up against Nate The Great over course and distance, losing by a short head first time and beating him by a half-length second time.

Nate The Great went on to finish second to Quickthorn in the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown just two runs after his defeat behind Onesmoothoperator in the all-weather championships and the winner, Earlofthecotswolds, competed in the Gold Cup last week.

All of that points to Onesmoothoperator being on the fringes of Listed and Group class, but he carries just 8st 11lb because of the presence of a bona-fide Group 1 horse in Trueshan at the top of the weights. He will carry 10st 8lb and be conceding upwards of 19lb to the field.

Not only does Trueshan have a big weight to overcome, he also has a tricky draw in stall ten. Runners from that gate have beaten an average of just 44.52 per cent of their rivals in the Vase and Plate combined. And no horse has won the Pitmen’s Derby with more than 9st 10lb.

Trueshan is now 2lb higher than when sixth in the race last year and no horse has even run off a BHA mark of 120-plus in a Flat handicap in Britain this century.

Decorated Hero was the last to attempt it and he finished sixth in the 1998 International at Ascot off a rating of 121. That gives an idea of the herculean task the division-leading Trueshan faces.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Howay Rajinsky

Newcastle United fan Hugo Palmer hopes there will be a proper cheer two years on from a "home" victory achieved in near silence.

Palmer was brought up just north of the course, went to university in the city, and had long dreamed of landing the north-east's biggest Flat prize.

Yet there was no Gallowgate roar when the "chuffed to bits" trainer fulfilled a lifetime ambition by winning the Northumberland Plate with Caravan Of Hope in 2020 as it was staged behind closed doors.

Palmer may have moved from Newmarket to Cheshire and taken over many new horses, but his desire to win this prize remains strong.

And the bookmakers clearly believe he has inherited the right material in ante-post favourite Rajinsky, who has passed the post seventh and then fourth – subsequently promoted a place – in the last two years.

The six-year-old has taken his form to a new level this season, winning at Ripon and finishing a close third in the Chester Cup, and is again ridden by crack 5lb claimer Harry Davies, whose mother is the trainer's assistant.

Harry Davies: leading claimer rides RajinskyCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

He is drawn wide in stall 16 but Palmer said: "Caravan Of Hope was in 17 and high draws do well – if you are low you either have to go forward, and risk going too hard, or you have the danger of getting no luck in running.

"I've been over the moon with Rajinsky since Chester. I longed to run him at Ascot but he doesn't want firm ground and his form couldn't have done any better there – the Ripon second won one race and the Chester second another."

Palmer also runs Solent Gateway and said: "He was far too keen in the Chester Cup and I hope that coming back in trip there may be a fractionally stronger gallop, giving him a chance to settle. And we may not hold him up as much as we did at Chester."

What they say

Alan King, trainer of Trueshan, Rainbow Dreamer and Who Dares Wins
Trueshan probably has an impossible task but he's been simmering away for a few weeks and needs to run somewhere. We'll roll the dice and see with Who Dares Wins, but Rainbow Dreamer is in good form and has had a wind operation since his last run. He could run a big race.

Heather Main, trainer of Island Brave
He has every chance. He got trapped on the rail at Ascot last week and couldn't get out in time but he's in good form, he's run well in this before, and the trip and track suit him.

Jeff Smith, owner of Spirit Mixer
He's been running well and the apprentice Callum Hutchinson gets on extremely well with him. He'll have no issue with the trip and he's got form on the all-weather. He has a proper chance.

Sir Mark Prescott, trainer of Summer's Knight
He looked a pretty good horse at the end of last season but he disappointed at Newmarket first time out. Something was amiss and I hope you'll see a different version of him here. I think staying should be his game.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Onesmoothoperator
He's in good form and we're hopeful. He's run some good races there but it will be tricky from his draw in 17.

Jim Goldie, trainer of Sir Chauvelin
This has been the long-term plan, he's well weighted and we'll try to pass everyone in the straight.
Reporting by David Carr

Saturday's race previews:

2.25 Newcastle: 'This has always been the plan' – quotes and analysis for the Chipchase Stakes

2.40 Newmarket: can last year's UAE Derby winner Rebel's Romance return to his best on turf?

3.05 Curragh: 'He's even better than before the Norfolk' – Crispy Cat seeks Ascot compensation

3.15 Newmarket: James Doyle replaces Frankie Dettori as Sunray Major chases Group 3 prize

3.45 Curragh: Colin Keane and Aidan O'Brien on Irish Derby hopes Westover and Tuesday

4.20 Curragh: Classic hero Mac Swiney out to fend off younger brigade in International Stakes

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