3.15 Kelso: the one race you cannot afford to miss on Monday

3.15 Kelso
William Hill Leading Racecourse Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle | 2m5f | 4yo+ | Live on RacingTV

Two winners, two seconds and two thirds from 11 runners in the last week have propelled Donald McCain back into the limelight and the in-form trainer saddles the most exciting contender in this handicap hurdle in the shape of the lightly raced The Con Man.

The Irish point winner was successful over 2m4f on his hurdles debut at Carlisle in December 2018 and has shaped as though he would improve for a step back up to that sort of trip in two starts over shorter this season. With that in mind he did particularly well to split a pair of subsequent winners over 1m7½f at Haydock last month and he was only five lengths behind winner Marie’s Rock, who went on to land a Listed mares’ race at Taunton on her next start.

The Con Man failed to justify favouritism when second to Flinck on his handicap bow over 2m3f at the same track last time but he was unable to dominate and appeared to race up with a strong pace. He clearly did best of those who were prominent and was picked off only late by a more patiently ridden winner in a race where those tactics may have been favoured.

There were 11 in that Haydock contest and only six line up in this less-competitive affair but The Con Man won’t have things all his own way early as Mcgowan’s Pass likes to front-run. Expect the pair to cut out the early running, but the greater emphasis on stamina at this 2m5f trip should help The Con Man wear down his early rival, who is unproven beyond 2m1f.

If they do go off too quickly then look out for proven stayers Bialco and Lake View Lad to be coming home strongly from off the pace. Lake View Lad would be particularly interesting if he could reproduce his smart chase form back in this sphere off a 5lb lower hurdles mark.

Key stats

Lake View Lad's last run over hurdles came in April 2016, when he won at Newcastle. He has won three of his last four attempts over hurdles after falling in the first two.

Bialco has won both times he's raced at Kelso.

What the trainers say

Nick Alexander, trainer of Lake View Lad
He ran a very nice race at Wetherby and we didn’t really want his mark to go up ahead of the Grand National weights coming out, so it’s very much a run to keep him ticking over with that in mind. I hope he’ll run well, but it’s hard to see him having the speed at this stage in his career to give away weight all round.

Ben Haslam, trainer of River Frost
We’ve been very happy with him. We thought we’d drop him back to hurdles at Wetherby the other day to try something different and he performed well. I think Kelso might suit him better, so we’re hopeful without being confident.

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Bialco
He loves the track and he’ll definitely stay and be strong in the finish. He’s gone up 2lb for his last win, but hopefully that won’t affect him too much because I think he’s still on a mark he can win off. If the ground is soft or heavy then happy days.

Sandy Thomson, trainer of Mcgowan's Pass
It’s a bit further this time so that’s a slight unknown but I think he’ll be all right. I hope it’s a mark he can cope with, if I thought it wasn’t then I wouldn’t put him in the race as it’s competitive enough. He hits the ground pretty hard so he wants it softer.

For the freshest betting advice, based on latest going and market conditions, don't miss the Live Tipster every afternoon. Just click Raceday Live at racingpost.com or the mobile app