If I owned Baaeed I'd be going to Ascot for Champion Stakes - sorry, everyone!
This column was first published on August 19 and has been made free to read following the news that Baaeed will not run in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and will instead finish his career in the Champion Stakes. In it, deputy Ireland editor David Jennings makes the case for Baaeed running at Ascot rather than Longchamp.
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A scene from the sitcom Friends springs to mind when thinking of William Haggas and his Baaeed conundrum.
Ross, agonising over whether to date Rachel or Julie, whinges: "I don't know what to do. What am I gonna do? I mean this is like a complete nightmare."
To which Chandler replies: "Oh, I know. This must be so hard. 'Oh, no! Two women love me. They're both gorgeous and sexy. My wallet is too small for my fifties, and my diamond shoes are too tight!'"
Every trainer, of course, would dearly love to be in Haggas's diamond shoes right now. Baaeed is the best since Frankel and picking the final stepping stone to what will no doubt be a stellar career at stud is not so much a problem, but rather a glorious choice with seemingly no downside no matter what the decision.
Unless, of course, you are actually Haggas and have to make the choice.
The problem is that Baaeed was about as tired as Tigger from Winnie The Pooh at the end of the Juddmonte International. The further he went the better he looked. Our reflex reaction was to wonder what he might do over an extra two furlongs in the Arc and we began to get giddy.
We got giddy because Baaeed finishing his career over a mile and a half in Europe's supreme championship race would be the perfect way to wrap up an extraordinary career.
But we also got giddy because we have been hearing nothing but bad news about the Arc since early June and we craved an upbeat bulletin.
Desert Crown out; Hurricane Lane basically out; Emily Upjohn and Westover stuffed by Pyledriver in the King George; no sign of Adayar yet; Teona out; the home team looking very weak apart from Vadeni. Perhaps Titleholder will live up to the Japanese hype but, if he doesn't, the 2022 Arc will not be a particularly memorable one. Unless, of course, Baaeed butts in.
As Lee Mottershead put it this week, the Arc needs Baaeed more than Baaeed needs the Arc. It is screaming his name and begging him to come but will Haggas listen?
When you get a superstar like Baaeed we always want to see something we haven't seen before. That was why Wednesday was so wonderful. It was our first glimpse of him over ten furlongs and it was the first time he spreadeagled a field in a Group 1. We got two for the price of one and those two minutes and nine seconds were invaluable. Now we want more.
We don't want to see him do that again, we want to see what he could do over further in a different country against completely different horses.
Paddy Power make him a 4-5 shot for the Arc with a run and, were he to turn up at Longchamp on the first Sunday of October, he would be closer to 1-2. I think he would win easily and you probably do too but the decision is not ours.
Seldom has an Arc changed complexion so much in such a short space of time. Just over two months ago Derby hero Desert Crown was 3-1 favourite with Ladbrokes with Emily Upjohn next on the list at 6-1 and Hurricane Lane 8-1. There is a strong possibility none of them will even run now.
Ladbrokes now have 6-1 co-favourites Titleholder, Torquator Tasso and Vadeni and make Alpinista a 7-1 shot after her tenacious Yorkshire Oaks triumph on Thursday. It is an Arc that needs Baaeed.
But, put yourself in the diamond shoes of Haggas, Angus Gold, Sheikha Hissa and Jim Crowley. The Champion Stakes has long been spoken about as his swansong and the script has gone perfectly. Do you succumb to peer pressure now and go for the Arc like almost everybody is telling you to do, or do you stick to the script that has served you so well over the last two seasons?
Baaeed is 1-3 with Ladbrokes to make it 11 from 11 in the Champion Stakes at Ascot and, if he shows up there in one piece, you can guarantee he will be even shorter. All he has to do is do what he has done before and his career will end unbeaten. An unblemished record. He has nothing left to prove. He is, without any shadow of a doubt, the best since Frankel.
Haggas said on Thursday that “everything is possible at the moment, even the Arc. There are three options. It's either Champion Stakes only, the Irish Champion and then the Champion Stakes, or the Arc de Triomphe”.
As much as I would give my right arm to see him in the Arc, I think the best we can hope for is Leopardstown and Ascot and, to be perfectly honest, you are probably better off preparing yourself for the worst as I would be shocked if we saw him more than once and anywhere else but Ascot. It is easy for us to say he should go for the Arc, it is not so easy for Haggas and co.
Please don’t let that dampen the brilliance of Baaeed. Yes, the Champion Stakes will be a foregone conclusion on October 15 but it will be one hell of a foregone conclusion. If I owned, trained or rode Baaeed that is where I would be going.
Sorry, everybody.
Read this next:
'We can't do both' – Baaeed set for Champion Stakes rather than Arc bid
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