The trials have been run but which have proved the best guides to Arc glory?

The key trials for the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe have now been run, with the the Cazoo St Leger, Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes and the trio of races on Longchamp's Sunday Arc trials card all accompanied with a flurry of adjustments from the bookmakers.

We all live by visual impressions but what does history tell us about which races can prove the most reliable guides to the Arc itself?

Arc Trials Day: Fluctuating fortunes

If you go back over the last ten, 20 and even 30 years, there is a steady return of around 50 per cent for the Arc winner having run – though not always having won – on Longchamp's card three weeks before the big race itself.

Four of the last ten Arc winners fit that profile, a number that increases to nine from the last 20 and 16 who scored in the last 30 years.

But within that period the fortunes of the three races have fluctuated.

The Prix Niel for three-year-olds only enjoyed a run unparalleled in the sport between Carnegie's victory in 1994 and Rail Link in 2006, providing ten winners from 13 editions.

But the Niel is 0-15 since in an era when the two winning three-year-old colts, Sea The Stars and Golden Horn, prepped in Ireland.

The reverse phenomenon is true of the fillies and mares-only Prix Vermeille, which endured a barren spell between Akiyida's Arc win in 1982 and Zarkava achieving a brilliant double in 2008.

But since then the floodgates have opened, with Solemia and Treve twice using the Vermeille as a successful springboard.

The Prix Foy is the least loved of the three trials and as only three Arc winners to show for its entire history; Allez France in 1974, Subotica in 1992 and Waldgeist in 2019.

But the race for four-year-old and upwards has produced ten placed horses over the space of 30 years, several of which hit the board at a big price.

2022 winners:

Prix Foy: Iresine
Prix Vermeille: Sweet Lady
Prix Niel: Simca Mille

Irish Champion Stakes: the coming force?

If you want to highlight one race that has had its profile raised – both in absolute terms and as a guide to the Arc – then the Irish Champion Stakes is surely the one.

Run on the eve of the traditional French trials, it has the benefit of timing in the calendar, as well as a €1 million prize fund that concentrates minds.

That has been especially true for three-year-old colts, who may find an easier alternative to Longchamp but who will likely be adding nothing to their reputation.

It is perhaps then no surprise the increased salience of the Irish Champion has come at the expense of the Prix Niel.

A generation ago a horse such as Onesto – winner of the Grand Prix de Paris over 1m4f – would almost automatically have gone for the Niel, with especially French trainers fearing an unnecessarily hard race three weeks before the Arc

Such is the depth of most editions of the Irish Champion that Found and Sottsass went on to win the Arc having been well beaten at Leopardstown.

As for Irish Champion winners, by no means all go on to Longchamp and so almost as striking as the five Arc winners the race has produced since 2006 is the fact that only Cape Blanco and So You Think have failed when attempting the double in the last 15 years.

2022 winner: Luxembourg

The Grosser Preis von Baden: dangerous to ignore

For the top middle-distance horses in Britain, Ireland and France the Grosser Preis has waned as an attraction over the last decade, with 2019 Baden hero Ghaiyyath the only top-notcher from abroad to win in Germany and then contest the Arc in the last 15 years (French-trained Prince Gibraltar started at 66-1 to complete the double in 2015). You have to go back to Marienbard in 2002 for the last foreign-trained horse to win both races in the same season.

But the best domestic winners have struck twice in recent memory, with Danedream in 2011 and Torquator Tasso 12 months ago, while Novellist was favourite in 2013 before an eve-of-race temperature ruled him out.

Torquator Tasso: won the Grosser Preis von Baden a month before Arc glroyCredit: Mathea Kelley (racingfotos.com)

The Grosser Preis is run left-handed but against that in most seasons it gives horses an extra week to recover before the Arc.

As for horses that hit the board at Longchamp, Youmzain was second in the Arc in 2009 at 20-1 having been beaten favourite in the Grosser Preis, while in 2008 It's Gino finished third to Zarkava at 150-1 having filled the same position at Baden Baden.

Three years earlier Westerner also ran third in the race before going on to find only Hurricane Run too strong in the Arc.

2022 winner: Mendocino

York and Ascot: Playing the long game

When John Gosden successfully went straight from the Yorkshire Oaks to the Arc at Chantilly in 2017 with Enable he was achieving a pretty rare feat.

That calculated 38-day absence placed her in a rare group of modern-day Arc winners not to have run in September. It is the kind of absence Juddmonte International winner Baaeed will need to overcome if he is supplemented for the Arc.

Enable had enjoyed a busy summer with victory in the Oaks, the Irish Oaks and the King George before heading to the Knavesmire and was not entered in the Arc at that stage, so there may have been a slight element of the wondermare having to play her way into contention for being supplemented.

Twelve months later a physical issue meant Enable had not run before the autumn and Gosden opted for the September Stakes on the Kempton all-weather rather than a tougher assignment in the Vermeille or the Irish Champion for her comeback.

Her two defeats in the Arc came off the back of second wins in the Yorkshire Oaks (2019) and at Kempton (2020)

To win at Longchamp off a break of 71 days from the King George at Ascot requires both an above-average Arc winner and the work of a goldsmith on the part of the trainer.

Workforce (2010), Lammtarra (1995), Mill Reef (1971) and Sea Bird (1965) all qualify on both counts.

2022 winners:
Yorkshire Oaks: Alpinista
International: Baaeed
September Stakes: Mostahdaf
King George: Pyledriver

St Leger: A hoodoo waiting to be broken?

It is not news that no winner of the St Leger has gone on to win the Arc three weeks later, nor is there a lack of logic in the statistics.

A punishing 1m6½f at Doncaster three weeks before taking on the deepest field of the season does not sound like the ideal prep, and yet those who have attempted the double have often gone to Longchamp with a fair degree of public and bookmaker support.

In 2021 Hurricane Lane had already bagged a Group 1 over a mile and a half in the Irish Derby and so was arguably an above-average Leger winner, reflected in his SP of 8-11 at Doncaster.

The son of Frankel ran a huge race in being beaten only three quarters of a length in the Arc, and this perhaps demonstrates why most Leger winners struggle at Longchamp.

Hurricane Lane: impressive St Leger winner was third in the 2021 ArcCredit: Edward Whitaker

The oldest Classic has become a target for placed horses from the Derby and future Cup horses.

As such, most St Leger winners are simply not good enough to win an average Arc and it is surely that aspect, rather than the tough nature of the race as a prep, that means it remains one of the more unlikely sources of glory on the first Sunday in October.

Before Hurricane Lane, Kingston Hill was the last Doncaster winner to threaten the places when fourth in 2014, while User Friendly (1992) and Snurge (1990) both paid each-way backers.

2022 winner: Eldar Eldarov

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Longchamp, October 2)

Paddy Power: 4-6 Baaeed (non-runner money back), 7 Alpinista, 8 Titleholder, 10 Torquator Tasso, 14 Do Deuce, Vadeni, Westover, 16 bar

Bet365: 2 Baaeed, 6 Alpinista, Titleholder, 9 Vadeni, 10 Torquator Tasso, 12 Do Deuce, Onesto, 16 bar

Read this next:

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Simca Mille bolsters Grand Prix de Paris form in Prix Niel but Arc bid uncertain

Sweet Lady 33-1 for the Arc after Vermeille success for Benoist and Graffard

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