'He's a worthy favourite and the one to beat' - Appleby on Juvenile Turf chances

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) | 1m | 2yo colts and geldings | ITV3/Sky/RTV

Between Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby, they have got a horse in the first two in eight of the last ten runnings of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Even the two exceptions contained an O'Brien-trained favourite (Arizona in 2019) and a Coolmore-owned winner (Hootenanny in 2014).

Trends are one thing but the prevailing wisdom has it that 2022 has not been a vintage year for European-trained juveniles. The facts back up this conclusion, if only tentatively. The ten-year average for the Racing Post Rating of the Juvenile Turf winner has been 114. Nine two-year-olds in Europe this year have run to 115 or higher, which is the joint-second lowest number in the last decade.

It should come as no surprise that the outstanding juvenile from the European ranks, Autumn Stakes winner Silver Knott, is a relatively short-priced favourite. He is one of the nine alluded to above, as the form of his victory last time over Epictetus, Holloway Boy and Dancing Magic was repeated almost exactly when those horses finished second, third and fourth respectively in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. The time before, Silver Knott had gone off 8-13 against subsequent Dewhurst winner Chaldean in the Champagne Stakes.

The last three US-based winners of this race all came from the same trial, the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont in October. Major Dude and I'm Very Busy were first and second in the race this year, which was run at Aqueduct due to development works at Belmont.

Given the slightly below-average profile of the European cohort, it is worth noting that Major Dude is the highest-rated Pilgrim winner (109 RPR) since Bobby's Kitten in 2013. But it would also be worth noting that the length second, I'm Very Busy, has a lower draw this time and a marginally faster pedigree, so may benefit from the slightly shorter distance.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'He could be like Nations Pride next year'

Charlie Appleby's growing reputation for transatlantic success is surely factored into odds of 5-4 about Silver Knott for this race, won by the trainer twice in the last four years. Appleby freely compared him to a couple of the established older horses who also form part of his Keeneland team as he explained why he had decided to come here with a horse who would have legitimate Classic aspirations in England a few months from now.

"There's no harm in coming here and hardening him up a little bit more, giving him that bit of experience," Appleby said. "He could be something like Nations Pride or Modern Games next year, a horse that could do plenty of travelling. Why not get him schooled up early in his career?

"What we've seen so far, everything looks great. His mindset's been great here. That's something that was a little bit of a concern, eight weeks ago, whether he'd be mentally able to take a challenge like this. But so far we've been very pleased and if he can handle everything on the day, he's a worthy favourite and the one to beat."

The one real blot on Silver Knott's record was in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster during the St Leger meeting, when he was last of three and well held by Chaldean. It doesn't hurt that the winner has since followed up in the Dewhurst.

"That was soft ground," Appleby says, noting cheerfully that Silver Knott will get a very different surface here. "I'm probably one of the few trainers whose Lope De Vegas don't seem to go on soft ground.

"Coming here on a sound surface, I'm really happy with him. He put up a good performance in the Autumn Stakes. He came out of the race well.

"I felt the step up in trip to a mile was always going to suit him. He loved the quick ground there at Newmarket and he has the right profile to come here."

What they say

Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Victoria Road
He won at Chantilly, taking his time. You need a bit of pace to do that. He came from a good bit back that day. I think the track should be fine, nice ground suits him. We've been happy with his work as well. We thought he could develop into a French Derby horse but he has pace because he has very good form over six furlongs. You wouldn't be bringing a seven-furlong colt or a mile colt that hasn't ran short because he might get lost early. Initially, we thought he was a five- or six-furlong horse. He's from a fast, precocious pedigree but it's only when we started stepping him up, we started seeing a much better horse.

Wayne Catalano, trainer of Andthewinneris
I'm liking my chances. I like the draw, I like the way the horse is training, I'm in very good shape. He came from the back when he won at Keeneland last time but he was drawn 12 that day, so he had to go back a bit; he doesn't have to do it like that. We're more in the middle this time.

Jeff Mullins, trainer of Packs A Wahlop
I think he's got as good a chance as anybody. The horse is just getting better with every start. He's earned his way into the Grade 1, he's undefeated on the grass and he won as easy as he liked the last time. How good he is, we're going to find out.
Reporting by Chris Cook

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