Grand National trends: who history suggests will triumph

They've been running the Grand National since 1839 so we ought to have learned a thing or two about how to find the winner by now.

Admittedly, it's a very different race nowadays to the one that Lottery won 179 years ago and it's changed a lot with amendments to the fences, the distance and the handicapping in the past decade.

But history can still tell us plenty about what to look for – and what to avoid – when it comes to deciding where to put our money on Saturday.

Randox Health Grand National card and betting

AGE

This is not a contest for young horses – it's the only non-veterans' race with a minimum age as high as seven and even that is possibly too young for the test it presents.

No seven-year-old has won since Bogskar in 1940, which is a bad omen for this year's contender Baie Des Iles.

Then again, you can be too old. No horse as old as the 13-year-olds Raz de Maree, Maggio and Bless The Wings has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923.

And Amberleigh House is the only 12-year-old winner since 1995, which is a concern for anyone who fancies Carlingford Lough, Gas Line Boy, Saint Are, Lord Windermere or Double Ross.

The modern National is strongly-run throughout, with no pause for breath, and more of a test of staying power than it used to be, with jumping ability less important than it was: it may be significant that fresh, young eight or nine-year-olds have won the last three runnings.

WEIGHT

Even the slightly shorter trip of 4m2½f is an awfully long way to be lugging weight and Red Rum was the last horse to win the National from the top of the handicap.

Modern-day handicapping has seen a slight compression of the weights but it's still a stiff task to carry 11st 7lb or more – the Gold Cup class Many Clouds was the only winner to defy that burden since Red Rum's final win in 1977.

That suggests you ought to think twice before siding with Minella Rocco, Blaklion, Anibale Fly or The Last Samuri this year.

Minella Rocco has his work cut out under top weightCredit: Edward Whitaker

FITNESS

Every horse is trained to the minute for the Grand National – nobody leaves their horse short of a gallop when they're being aimed at a £1 million race.

But fitness is not the same as race-fitness and there's still no substitute for racing as a way to ensure a chaser is spot on for the day that really counts.

All bar one of the last 27 National winners had raced eight weeks or less prior to their Aintree success and that statistic counts against Minella Rocco, Alpha Des Obeaux, Perfect Candidate, Carlingford Lough, Warriors Tale, Gas Line Boy, Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti, Raz de Maree, Virgilio, Baie Des Iles, Buywise, Childrens List and Lord Windermere this time.

Carlingford Lough: has been off for quite a bit longer than is typical for a modern National winnerCredit: Alain Barr

JUMPING

The fences may not be so fearsome nowadays but they still need to be jumped and only two of the last 21 winners had fallen or unseated their rider more than twice prior to their Aintree success.

Among the leading fancies this year, that is a worry for Total Recall (two falls and an unseat), Minella Rocco (two falls and an unseat) and Gas Line Boy (two falls and two unseats).

ODDS

No outright favourite has won since Hedgehunter in 2005 but that's no surprise when there are 40 horses facing the starter and joint favourites collected in both 2008 and 2010.

That said, the less exacting fences and the more competitive nature of the field means the modern-day National is much more open – the average starting price of the last six winners is 32 ?-1 – and Racing Post Pricewise guru Tom Segal reckons 'it is now the lottery it never was'.

CONCLUSION

There are lies, damned lies and conclusions drawn from blind adherence to race trends.

However, history suggests that Tiger RollandGold Presentfit the profile of a modern National winner better than most.

Tiger Roll: fits the trends for a Grand National winnerCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Members can read the latest exclusive interviews, news analysis and comment available from 6pm daily on racingpost.com