In which races does it pay to follow market leaders at the Cheltenham Festival?

With latest entries for the Cheltenham Festival novice chases announced on Wednesday, Robbie Wilders looks back at the races that have proved profitable for favourite backers over the past decade

Tuesday

While the curtain-raising Supreme Novices' Hurdle has yielded only two winning market leaders in the past decade (Vautour in 2014 and Douvan in 2015), generally the opening day of the festival has proved the happiest hunting ground for favourite backers.

The Racing Post Arkle shares the accolade for the festival's most successful race for favourites on ten-year trends with six such winners, which bodes well for the prospects of dual Grade 1 winner Notebook.

All of the Arkle winning favourites obliged at odds-on, with three apiece for Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson.

The Mares' Hurdle is the other contest to have produced six winning favourites in the past decade. Quevega monopolised the race with five consecutive victories and later came Vroum Vroum Mag's triumph at 4-6 in 2016.

Bar final-flight spills from Annie Power (2015) and Benie Des Dieux (2019) in notably similar circumstances, that figure would have risen to eight.

The Champion Hurdle is another race where favourite backers have fared well. Buveur D'Air, Faugheen, Annie Power and Hurricane Fly (twice) mean five favourites have taken the opening-day highlight.

The Ultima Handicap Chase has proved much trickier for favourites. Coo Star Sivola is the sole winner with a 5-1 strike under Lizzie Kelly in 2018.

Wednesday

The festival's second day has proved tougher for favourites. Samcro, Faugheen and Simonsig are the only three to land the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, while Presenting Percy, Might Bite and Don Poli make another trio in the RSA.

The Coral Cup is regularly one of the toughest puzzles of the festival and has proved a complete graveyard for favourites with no winner in the past ten years. A 17.8-1 average SP for the winners
emphasises the level of difficulty for punters.

However, the Champion Chase has proved reasonable for favourite backers. Recent back-to-back triumphs for Altior after Sprinter Sacre (2013) and Sire De Grugy (2014) make up the four winners.

Tiger Roll will be sent off a warm order for the Cross Country Chase and he was a winning favourite last year, although Josies Orders (2016) is the only other successful market leader in the past decade.

Thursday

The Marsh Novices' Chase opens Thursday's action and has yielded four winning favourites in the past decade. In fact, nine of the ten winners have gone off at 7-1 or shorter. The exception was 20-1 shot Benefficient, who captured the race in 2013 for Tony Martin.

The Ryanair Chase has also produced four winning market leaders with Un De Sceaux, Vautour, Dynaste and Riverside Theatre.

That figure is bettered by the Stayers' Hurdle. The last three of the Big Buck's four-timer fell in the past decade and Thistlecrack and Paisley Park have since made it five winning favourites.

Although it has only been on the festival programme for four years, the Mares' Novices' Hurdle has had three winning favourites. Willie Mullins has captured all four events with Eglantine Du Seuil (50-1 last year) the only non-favourite to grace the winner's enclosure.

Friday

The Triumph Hurdle and Gold Cup are three apiece for winning favourites, while the County Handicap Hurdle is another race that has not had a successful market leader in the past ten runnings, with an average winning SP of 15.9-1.

The Foxhunter Chase has not fared badly on the ten-year trends. Salsify, On The Fringe, Hazel Hill and Baby Run (joint market leader) are the four winning favourites.

The Grand Annual and Martin Pipe, two potential get-out-of-jail races for punters as the festival draws to a close, have produced just one winning favourite each with Alderwood (2013) and Sir Des Champs (2011) respectively.

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