Gain an edge by going against the crowd and seeking out some dark horses

The return of the Tote Ten To Follow a couple of years ago really made me a happy man.

There simply is no better value bet for the whole season and the changes to the competition in recent years mean it has become even more exciting. The number of bonus races have been increased to 25 and that means even more points on offer if you can find the right selections.

This is the purists’ competition, the one for the real racing aficionado and that’s particularly true of the Flat edition, where unearthing dark’uns who could become champions is vital.

That’s probably the main difference between the Flat and the jumps competitions. Over the jumps the champions keep coming back every year and it’s easy to see who the big points scorers might be. On the Flat that’s not the case and a more nuanced approach is required.

So how do you find the right selection on the Flat and what’s the best way to separate yourself from the field? This is, after all, a pool bet and going too obvious won’t pay off.

Everyone will be including the likes of Stradivarius and Battaash, while Derby favourite High Definition will be all the rage. The key is to work out which of the obvious selections will pay off and which might blow out. If you can avoid the blow-outs you’ll already be holding a huge advantage over your fellow players before you add your dark’uns.

Stradivarius was the highest-scoring stayer in the Tote Ten To Follow last year but it might be better to look to other divisions to gain more points this timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

Maybe the best way to decipher which of the obvious selections might offer the best value is to analyse the bonus races themselves. Exactly how many fit into each category, for example?

Stradivarius is an outstanding stayer but there aren’t many chances for him to bag bonus points. The Gold Cup is one of only two bonus races run over further than a mile and a half and the St Leger, for which Stradivarius doesn’t qualify, is the sole other one.

Contrast that to the sprint division. Five of the 25 bonus races are run over five and six furlongs, including the Commonwealth Cup for three-year-olds. There are evidently a lot more opportunities for sprinters to score bonus points, so it’s worth playing it that way.

However, the key to winning the Flat Ten To Follow is to farm the middle-distance races. No fewer than 11 of the 25 bonus races are set to be run over a mile and a quarter or a mile and a half, some restricted to three-year-olds, some fillies, and some have no restrictions at all.

Those 11 races were won by ten different horses last year, but they were contested by the same horses on plenty of occasions with Ghaiyyath (won two), Enable, Magical, Lord North and Addeybb among those who competed in at least two of the 11, some others ran in more.

Ghaiyyath (second left) won two Ten To Follow bonus races in 2020, including the Juddmonte InternationalCredit: Edward Whitaker

One thing that connects all of those is that they were older horses who already had shown a high level of ability and the opportunities are evidently there for that type of performer.

The other group with plenty of opportunity is the milers. There are seven mile bonus races in the calendar, although four of them are for three-year-olds and two of them for fillies.

Last year all seven of those races were won by different horses, although Love did land the 1,000 Guineas before going on to win the Oaks, so there can be even more value in finding three-year-olds who could land an early season mile bonus race before going up in distance.

At the end is the time to add those dark’uns. I’ve found in the past that many Ten to Follow players get put off horses after one early season bad run. Raven’s Pass was a good example in 2008. He was turned over at a short price in the Craven Stakes and plenty deserted him thereafter.

Form is temporary and class is permanent is an overused saying, but plenty of classy three-year-olds take time to come to hand, so don’t be put off by a defeat early season. Be forgiving and go against the crowd, it could pay off handsomely come the end of the year.

2020 – THE TOP HORSES
1 Magical 125.07 points
2 Ghaiyyath 121.42
3 Battaash 102.22
4 Nazeef 93.45
5 Addeybb 91.30
6 Tarnawa 90.90
7 Palace Pier 87.05
8 Summerghand 85.70
9 Persian King 85.20
10 The Revenant 81.45

Read more:

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