Who will win the 2023 Scottish Grand National based on previous trends?

A week on from the Randox Grand National, the Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35) takes centre stage at Ayr on Saturday. We've delved through previous runnings of the contest and identified key pointers to help you find the winner . . .

3.35 Ayr (Saturday, April 22): Coral Scottish Grand National racecard and betting

Age 

There has been a mix of winning ages in recent renewals of the Scottish National. In the last seven years, we have had winners in every age group from seven up to 11, albeit the two winners aged in double figures were both relatively unconsidered in the betting at 25-1 apiece. 

There has not been a successful six-year-old since the subsequent Grand National winner Earth Summit in 1994, which would suggest Gavin Cromwell’s Malina Girl is vulnerable.

Weight

Vicente carried 11st 10lb when claiming his second Scottish National in 2017, but this was something of an outlier and a lighter weight has been considered essential in recent renewals. Vicente aside, you must go back to Grey Abbey (11st 12lb in 2004) for the last horse to carry more than 11st 3lb to victory.

Dusart, Threeunderthrufive, Monbeg Genius and Empire Steel are all assigned weights above 11st 3lb for Saturday's race.

Vicente: carried 11st 10lb to victory in the 2017 Scottish Grand NationalCredit: John Grossick

Form

Eight of the last ten Scottish National winners posted a top-five finish on their previous start, with four winning. 

Eight of this year’s field come into the race on the back of victories, including current market leader Kitty’s Light. This trend bodes less well for his stablemate Cap Du Nord, however, who could finish only ninth at Kempton last time out.   

Rating

The last ten Scottish National winners were officially rated 134 or higher at the time of their victories, yet 15 of this year’s field are rated below this figure.

The highest-profile horses to fall short are Your Own Story (127) and Flower Of Scotland (122), with both 12-1 or shorter at the time of writing.

Experience

Being lightly raced over fences has proved beneficial in the Scottish Grand National. Six of the last ten winners had had fewer than eight chase starts prior to winning the race and only two of the last ten had raced more than 13 times over fences.

Kitty’s Light has had 21 chase starts, so would be more exposed than a typical Scottish National winner.

Verdict

Highlighting runners weighted below 11st 4lb but rated higher than 133 narrows this year’s field from 23 to 8. Flash Collonges fares best on the trends, having had fewer than eight chase starts and arriving on the back of a win - which four of the last ten winners had done.

Flash Collonges15:35 Ayr

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: Paul Nicholls

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Read these next:

2023 Scottish Grand National: the runners, the odds, the verdict 

2023 Scottish Grand National confirmed runners and riders 

2023 Scottish Grand National tips: why this horse can win the big race at Ayr on Saturday 

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