2023 Scottish Grand National tips: why this horse can win the big race at Ayr on Saturday
The Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35) takes place at Ayr on Saturday and a typically competitive field has been attracted for this stamina-sapping 4m handicap chase. Who should you be backing? Here is what a team of our top tipsters, reporters and analysts think, ranked in order of forecast odds . . .
Monbeg Genius
Forecast odds: 5-1
By Keith Melrose
This looks far from the strongest Scottish National ever run and the 3m novices' handicap chase on the card threatens to take away a number of the more interesting, improving types.
Monbeg Genius is evidently going for the big one and he deserves to after a superb run in the Ultima last time. He got to the front plenty soon enough but still finished just over two lengths back in third behind one Corach Rambler.
He remains on the up and has the sort of racing style that suits the Scottish National. If he stays it will take a well-treated one to beat him, and I cannot see many of those.
Monbeg Genius
Forecast odds: 5-1
By David Jennings
An unexposed staying chaser who has the strongest piece of recent form by virtue of his Ultima third – I cannot believe Monbeg Genius is not outright favourite everywhere.
The first three home in the Ultima all looked like well-treated stayers, given how far they pulled clear of the pack, and a 5lb rise may not stop Monbeg Genius from making it four from six over fences. The track, the trip and the ground all look ideal for this fast-improving seven-year-old.
Jonjo O'Neill has never won the Scottish National as a jockey or a trainer but that stat could be shredded up on Saturday.
Your Own Story
Forecast odds: 8-1
By Liam Headd
Lucinda Russell's yard enjoyed Grand National success with Corach Rambler last weekend and that trend can continue with Your Own Story winning the Scottish version at Ayr on Saturday.
The consistent seven-year-old has finished in the top three in eight of his ten starts for the yard, with his latest success coming over 3m7f at Wetherby last month. He delivered a career-best performance based on Racing Post Ratings that day and with the stamina he possesses will have no issues with the extra furlong at Ayr.
He also seems pretty versatile when it comes to the ground and could have a big chance.
Your Own Story
Forecast odds: 8-1
By Conor Fennelly
The extended 3m4f at Haydock the last day was barely an adequate test for Your Own Story and the sort of test the Scottish National offers will likely see Lucinda Russell's charge put in a career best here.
He was no match for Stumptown at Sandown back in February but that rival subsequently finished a narrow second in the Kim Muir off a 10lb higher mark and Your Own Story was impressive on his next start when he seemed to relish 3m7f at Wetherby, defeating Innisfree Lad in comfortable fashion by five lengths.
It was to his credit he was able to get within half a length of Equus Dreamer the last day considering he was held up off a sedate gallop throughout, and the winner got first run on him. He should be challenging for favouritism here with the extra half mile guaranteed to play to his strengths.
Malina Girl
Forecast odds: 12-1
By Jack Haynes
Kitty's Light and Monbeg Genius have obvious claims but I'm happy to take a chance on Malina Girl at double-figure odds.
The Gavin Cromwell-trained mare was brought to a halt by a faller when pulled up in a Grade A handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival but has otherwise been ultra consistent over fences, finishing in the first four in 11 races since May last year.
She returned to winning ways with a career-best effort at Downpatrick this month and catches the eye off a nice weight.
Dusart
Forecast odds: 16-1
By Stuart Langley
Nicky Henderson's eight-year-old does not seem to have been the easiest to get right having only had the eight career starts, but he has won 50 per cent of those, including his sole handicap chase run to date at last year's Scottish National meeting, beating the now 161-rated Sound Russian.
He has shown very little in two runs this season but comes here fresh and ground conditions will be to his liking. He is the likely class act in the line up and if returning to last year's form he could defy top weight.
Elvis Mail
Forecast odds: 16-1
By James Hill
Scotland could have another National winner on Saturday with Elvis Mail.
Nick Alexander's grey comes into this at the top of his game having recorded a career-best RPR when winning at Kelso last time. That victory came over 3m2f, the furthest he's ever travelled, and he's shaping more like a stayer these days.
What's more he's a big fan of Ayr, having won there three times in the past, and this is his big opportunity.
Elvis Mail
Forecast odds: 16-1
By Lee Sharp
Has always looked a staying type and backed that up when winning at Kelso over 3m2f last time out, which was his longest trip to date. He travelled beautifully that day and topped it off by going away at the end.
He has been put up 5lbs for his effort that day, and I doubt that will be enough to stop him.
Ayr has proved to be a happy hunting ground for him, with three wins out of seven at the track, two of which have been over fences. Everything looks to be in his favour, and he has a good chance to provide trainer Nick Alexander with his first Scottish National success.
Flower Of Scotland
Forecast odds: 16-1
By Matt Rennie
The appropriately named Flower Of Scotland can provide Sandy Thomson with an emotional winner and she looks to have been laid out for this race.
The eight-year-old thrives over extreme staying trips, having won the Borders National earlier this season, and caught the eye when a staying-on third in the Edinburgh equivalent at Musselburgh in February, where the track would have been plenty tight enough for her.
She warmed up for this with a very good third over hurdles at Kelso last time to protect her chase rating and she could still have more to offer off her mark of 122, while she also gets lumps of weight from her rivals.
Small Present
Forecast odds: 50-1
By Craig Thake
Outsider can make his presence felt off a featherweight at big odds. He has yet to win over fences but has had limited opportunities over marathon distances, for which he looks tailormade.
Rated just 120 on Saturday, that is 5lb lower than when recording his career-best performance according to Racing Post Ratings when third in this season's Lincolnshire National.
Even if he races from out of the handicap I wouldn't be too concerned – there have been plenty such winners of this race over the years.
3.35 Ayr (Saturday, April 22): Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Coral: 9-2 Kitty's Light, 5 Monbeg Genius, 8 Your Own Story, 12 Malina Girl, 14 Empire Steel, Flash Collonges, 16 Dusart, Flower Of Scotland, Manofthepeople, Undersupervision, 18 Elvis Mail, Threeunderthrufive, 20 bar
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Read these next:
2023 Scottish Grand National: the runners, the odds, the verdict
2023 Scottish Grand National confirmed runners and riders
Who will win the 2023 Scottish Grand National based on previous trends?
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Published on 20 April 2023inFree tips
Last updated 17:33, 21 April 2023
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