TippingPaul Kealy

'He's worth another chance dropping back in trip' - Paul Kealy with three Friday selections

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General Medrano
2.25 Sandown
1pt win

Rose Of Arcadia
3.00 Sandown
1pt win

Havaila
3.35 Sandown
1pt each-way with firms offering four places

When working out my bets I've always paid far more attention to the horse than the jockey, but it's fair to say you have to take the riders into account when they are amateur, and particularly so when the amateurs are inexperienced members of the armed forces.

There are two such races at Sandown, and when first looking at the card the horse who stood out to me as being the best treated in each is set to be ridden by trooper Lucy Westlake, who claims 7lb and has had just one ride in her life.

It is surely stretching the realms of fantasy to suggest someone so inexperienced could ride a double at Sandown, and in the end I ditched Front View from the handicap hurdle, although not because of the rider. He's well handicapped now but isn't really a two-miler and may well find things happening a bit quickly.

Westlake's sole previous ride came in that race last year, when she steered a 40-1 shot into second, so she massively exceeded market expectations then, and in the Grand Military Gold Cup she has a partner with a far more obvious chance.

If this was a handicap with horses ridden by jockeys of equal merit, Rose Of Arcadia would be getting just 2lb from last year's winner Broken Halo, but with the conditions of this race and the claims being taken into account she receives a whopping 16lb.

Beaten only a couple of lengths when third in a Listed mares' chase at Newbury two starts ago (by a mare rated 14lb superior), Rose Of Arcadia was a perfectly respectable third in the Sussex National at Plumpton just under three weeks ago, so she's obviously in decent nick.

She's had ten chase starts without falling and has won on anything from good to heavy ground, and at these weights she'd be a very short-priced favourite if all the riders were professionals, so I'm happy to take a chance on Westlake doing the business.

Broken Halo did the Royal Artillery/Grand Military Gold Cup double under Jody Sole last season and has to be respected, but in two runs this season he has fallen here and been pulled up when well beaten in the Warwick Classic, so he's hardly in great form.

You could easily make a case for all six runners in the preceding novice handicap chase (2.25), but I'm keen to give General Medrano another chance now he drops back to 1m7½f.

He was a long way behind fourth-placed Kotmask when fifth to Blow Your Wad at Kempton over Christmas, but had moved upsides that one in a challenging position at the third-last before clearly not getting home.

Fourth to Under Control and Iberico Lord in a red-hot handicap hurdle at Sandown on the final day of last season, General Medrano has taken very well to chasing this season. He won his first two outings easily over 2m before being run out of things over 2m3½f by subsequent winner Brave Kingdom next time at Plumpton.

There's no reason why there won't be more to come from this lightly raced seven-year-old and I'd expect him to beat Kotmask this time even if that one gets round. There are no guarantees about that as Kotmask can be a shoddy jumper and he fell when favourite here in December in the race won by Mount Tempest.

The latter has gone in since and will be hard to beat if let loose on the lead, but he has some potential rivals for the lead in Keep Running and maybe Sir Psycho, and they should give General Medrano the strong test he needs at 2m.

The 2m4f handicap hurdle (3.35) is seriously competitive, but there's a chance Havaila is very well handicapped and he's worth another chance.

On his final three starts last season he ran a half-length second to Spirit D'Aunou at this track and a two-length third to Blueking D'Oroux before winning a meaningless match at Fakenham.

Those two are now 24lb and 2l1b higher in the ratings, but Havaila, who ran well on the Flat a couple of times afterwards, is just 2lb higher.

Both his Flat form (rated 73) and hurdles form suggest he's well handicapped off a mark of 108, and his sixth of 14 wasn't that bad at Ascot in December, while going back up to 2m4f may well help him.


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