US Open: Steve Palmer's betting preview, lowdown & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 3pm Thursday

Rory McIlroy has been all the rage for the US Open after his seven-shot Canadian Open romp on Sunday – a 22-under-par total at a soft Hamilton Country Club leaving impressed punters sprinting to betting shops – but history demands caution with regards to the mercurial Northern Irishman.

The last time McIlroy hit such heights was at Bay Hill in 2018, closing with a magical eight-under-par 64 to triumph by three shots, further glory apparently inevitable. The following week, he lost to Peter Uihlein and Brian Harman, exiting at the group stage of the WGC-Match Play, and a year passed until he won again.

Before his last trip to Pebble Beach, McIlroy was 22 under par for the 2018 Dubai Desert Classic in his preceding event, then he missed the cut by two shots in the Pebble Pro-Am. As wonderful as his form was in Canada, McIlroy is far from guaranteed to fire again on a much firmer, faster and tougher layout this week. He needed a closing birdie for a 59 at the par-70 Hamilton, but bogeyed for a 61, and that could be the start of an immediate downturn in fortunes as he heads to a course at which he has never made a cut.

Brooks Koepka is gunning for a US Open hat-trick, but, like McIlroy, his record in California is underwhelming. Koepka has never won a tournament on the West Coast or even competed in a Major at Pebble Beach. He was wild off the tee in Canada and putted poorly, and is a total of two over par for his last six rounds, so the Major-winning streak may be about to end.

Similar Canadian comments can apply to Dustin Johnson, erratic with the driver and ugly on the greens in his warm-up event. He seems to always play well at Pebble, but he blew his US PGA hopes with bogeys at the 16th and 17th in the final round, letting Koepka off the hook. His elf-belief may have been dented. The rivalry between DJ and BK has intensified with Johnson's decision to axe the swing coach they previously shared, a sub-plot which may unsettle both of them at the first Major since Claude Harmon became exclusively on the side of Koepka.

Palmer's top tip
Tiger Woods 12-1

McIlroy's Sunday fireworks, Koepka's hat-trick mission and DJ's consistent Pebble record mean there are three names ahead of Tiger Woods in the betting for the US Open and the most decorated player in the field has, incredibly, arrived slightly under the radar.

It is questionable whether anyone has better credentials for the Pebble Beach assignment than Woods, who looks a magnificent investment at double-figure odds. Even after winning the Masters in April and emphatically proving his doubters wrong, the 15-times Major champion is still not getting the respect he deserves.

The key to success at Pebble Beach, especially when it is set up for Majors, is accurate iron-play into the small greens. Woods is the greatest iron-player of all-time and arguably still the best in the business at the age of 43. He tops the 2019 US Tour greens in regulation statistics, and leads par-three scoring average, highlighting how deadly he remains with iron in hand.

Majestic iron-play is what won Woods the Masters – despite being left behind off the tee, he overcame the handicap with his brilliance on approach – and this week he tackles a much shorter course which lessens his driving disadvantage.

A whirlwind of media engagements followed his Augusta glory – and he even had to accept a Medal of Freedom from President Trump amid the mayhem – and Woods fell ill prior to the US PGA. Physically and mentally drained, he was unable to properly prepare, and missed the cut by a shot on a Bethpage layout which strongly favoured longer drivers like Koepka and Johnson.

Back to full health and his fighting weight, Woods moved through the gears in the Memorial in his next outing, producing a final-round masterclass to restore full confidence for Pebble. He was seven under par through 12 holes, playing almost perfect golf, and a couple of late bogeys could not detract from the fact that Tiger had rediscovered his A-game.

McIlroy has been taking the plaudits, but the Sunday charge of Woods at Muirfield Village, a tougher course, was equally eyecatching, and Pebble Beach is a venue where Tiger deserves maximum respect.

The California-born superstar won the 2000 US Open at Pebble by 15 shots, four months after winning the Pro-Am there, then he finished fourth in the 2010 US Open at Pebble, despite neck problems and poor preparation. The 2010 edition came just a month after he withdrew during the final round at Sawgrass with a neck injury, and just four months after he was addressing a media conference in the wake of sex scandals. Nobody is better suited to the mental and strategic test of a US Open at Pebble Beach, where irons off the tee will be commonplace this week.

Woods putted poorly on poa annua earlier this year, but blamed it on a lack of poa practice. He has not suddenly become unable to perform on the surface – he has won 14 US Tour events in California, including two Majors, as well as the World Challenge five times. And he has previously conquered the Pebble greens in spectacular fashion. He one-putted 20 of the first 38 dancefloors during that extraordinary 2000 US Open triumph, arguably the greatest golfing performance of all time, employing his 'pop stroke' to combat the bumpiness.

Woods has the ability to excel from tee to green this week – and that is where the event is likely to be won or lost. Expect him to contend throughout if he holes his fair share on greens where everyone in the field will probably be struggling to make much.

Next best
Patrick Cantlay 18-1

The biggest danger to Woods may turn out to be his stablemate, Patrick Cantlay, another Californian who is comfortable on this terrain. After winning the Memorial last time out with a final-round 64 of breathtaking quality, the floodgates could open for a man who once dominated the amateur circuit. This ball-striking colossus has started taming Major venues – 12th in the Open last year, ninth in the Masters in April, third in the US PGA last month – and can handle this week's long-game examination.

Cantlay has Pebble Pro-Am form of 9-48-35 and the tougher set-up for a US Open should only aid his cause. He was the low amateur (21st) in the 2011 US Open and eight years later, injury problems long forgotten, is ready to make serious waves in his third start in the event as a pro.

Other selections
Xander Schauffele 28-1
Brandt Snedeker 50-1
Phil Mickelson 55-1
Branden Grace 150-1

Xander Schauffele gets to play a Major in his home state for the first time this week and the calm 25-year-old will rightly fancy his chances of success. His two US Opens yielded finishes of fifth and sixth, and he has since finished second in the Open and the Masters.

His only Pebble start yielded 66th place in the 2017 Pro-Am, but he arrived for that event after four missed cuts and ranked 301st in the world rankings. He starts this week as world number ten, enjoyed a solid warm-up with 14th place in the Memorial, and will relish the severe tee-to-green test.

If Pebble plays as tough as it did in 2010, when level par was enough to triumph, controlled operators such as Woods, Cantlay and Schauffele should flourish. A lack of wind over the first two days, though, married to the desire of the USGA to avoid the course controversies of recent years, may see some more scoreable conditions early in the event. If so, Brandt Snedeker and Phil Mickelson are lively candidates for stealing a march.

Snedeker exhibited his scoring power with a second-round 60 in Canada last week, ending the event in fourth place, and the two-time Pebble Pro-Am champion should hit the ground running. He relishes putting on poa annua, with natural pop in his stroke, and four of his nine US Tour titles have come in California. He was eighth in the 2010 US Open at Pebble, one of five top tens he has notched in the tournament, and the 2012 FedEx Cup champ will not be remotely awed by the $2.16m pay cheque on offer to the winner this week.

Mickelson is a five-time champion on the easier Pebble set-up of the Pro-Am, but he has finished 16th and fourth in the two US Opens there, and could easily have one last home-state hurrah left in him. It would be the ultimate result – completing a career Grand Slam on your 49th birthday after six US Open runner-up efforts – but the fairytale is feasible.

Mickelson will not need to use his driver – the most destructive club in his bag – that often at Pebble. In the last nine years, there has been only one US Open venue shorter than this – Merion, where Mickelson finished second – and he can find enough fairways again with the big dog left in the bag. It is his typically superb approach-play which should prove decisive. In four of his five Pro-Am wins – and the other two occasions when he was Pro-Am runner-up – his driving accuracy statistic has been worse than the field average. He putts on poa as well as anyone and is worth chancing at the price.

Si Woo Kim is tempting and was the last name axed from the shortlist, but best of the three-figure-price options is Branden Grace. The South African grinder has been quiet since his runner-up finish in the Phoenix Open in February, but Pebble Beach suits him well. His lone US Tour victory came on the Harbour Town Links and his links record generally is fantastic. Six US Open starts have yielded two top-fives and his Pebble Pro-Am scoring average from two visits is a hugely respectable 69.25.

Staking plan
T Woods
4pts each-way 12-1 bet365, Betfred
P Cantlay
2.5pts each-way 18-1 bet365, Betfred, Betway
X Schauffele
2pts each-way 28-1 bet365
B Snedeker
1pt each-way 50-1 bet365, Betway
P Mickelson
1pt each-way 55-1 bet365
B Grace
0.5pt each-way 150-1 bet365, Betfred

US Open lowdown

Course Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California
Prize money $12.5m ($2.16m to the winner)
Length 7,075 yards
Par 71
Field 156

Course records - 72 holes 272 Tiger Woods (2000) 18 holes 62 Tom Kite (1983 Pro-Am), David Duval (1997 Pro-Am)

Course winners taking part Phil Mickelson (five times), Tiger Woods (twice), Dustin Johnson (twice), Graeme McDowell, Brandt Snedeker (twice), Jimmy Walker, Jordan Spieth

Cut The top 60 and ties after 36 holes

Playoff format Two-hole playoff, with sudden-death from there if tied

When to bet By 2.45pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 3pm Thursday

Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Canadian Open 1 R McIlroy (10-1), T2 S Lowry (40-1), W Simpson (22-1), T4 B Snedeker (40-1), M Kuchar (22-1), 6 A Hadwin (80-1), 7 S Im (80-1), T8 D Willett (100-1), G McDowell (100-1), H Stenson (35-1)

Course overview Pebble Beach hosted its first Major in 1972 (US Open), the 1977 USPGA and four further US Opens since, most recently in 2000 (won by Tiger Woods) and 2010 (Graeme McDowell). The set-up is considerably harder for Majors than it is for the annual Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, which has been staged there since 1947, and is played in February. It was a 6,816-yard, par-72 for the latest Pro-Am and the stroke average was 72.13, but for the last US Open it was a 7,040-yard par-71 and the stroke average was 74.98. McDowell won with a level-par 72-hole total. Three different courses are used for the Pro-Am, with only 36 holes of the competition at Pebble Beach, so only 50 per cent of the form from that event is worthwhile. The legendary track, which overlooks the Pacific Ocean, is usually soft for the Pro-Am, but will be firm and fast for the US Open, with heavy rough both lining the fairways and beside the small poa annua greens. Only two holes – the fourth and the sixth – played under par in the 2010 edition. The front nine is easier than the back. There are three par-fives – the sixth, 14th and 18th – but the 14th is difficult and has destroyed many a scorecard. It averaged 5.44 in the 2010 US Open

The story of last year Brooks Koepka successfully defended his US Open title, following up his comfortable Erin Hills success with a more hard-fought Shinnecock Hills triumph, a one-over-par total enough to win by a shot from Tommy Fleetwood

Weather forecast A sunny week has been allowing the course to dry out and firm up, and there appears to be zero chance of any rain falling during competition. Calm for the first two days, but breezier over the weekend.

Type of player suited to the challenge This is a relatively short US Open venue and, aside from the long par-fours of the second, ninth and tenth, big-hitters do not have a significant advantage. That seems especially the case given the track is getting firmer and faster every day. Precise approach-play to small greens, which are surrounded by trouble, appears the key to success. Ace scrambling and putting will also be required. Players who enjoy putting on poa annua have an advantage.

Key attribute Accuracy

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